Code: % of season completed 72.9% Year Average Median %<10K %>20k 1996 18312 15778 21.6% 29.3% 1997 15041 13152 19.0% 16.4% 1998 14569 11871 24.3% 16.4% 1999 14671 13128 30.7% 16.4% 2000 13652 12792 35.7% 11.4% 2001 14955 13844 27.0% 18.3% 2002 15696 13507 19.6% 17.6% 2003 14484 13345 25.7% 17.4% 2004 15229 13174 27.5% 23.9% 2005 14823 12167 30.0% 15.0% 2006 15597 13084 20.7% 18.6% 2007 15887 14351 9.9% 22.5% 2008 16443 15118 11.1% 24.8% 2009 15826 14573 15.2% 20.1% Final Numbers Year Average Median %<10K %>20k 1996 17406 15093 21.9% 26.3% 1997 14619 12733 25.0% 16.3% 1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 2001 14962 13431 26.6% 17.7% 2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 2003 14898 13641 23.3% 18.0% 2004 15559 13285 24.7% 25.3% 2005 15108 12619 27.1% 17.7% 2006 15504 14175 18.8% 18.8% 2007 16770 15353 8.2% 29.7% 2008 16459 15188 11.0% 24.8%
AAQ: Average: 4th out of 14 Median: 3rd out of 14 <10k: 3rd out of 14 >=20k: 5th out of 14 AAQ: (4+3+3+5)/4 = 3.75 Best AAQ of the year if memory serves. The attendance consistency this year has been remarkable. It did not experience the swan dive that many other years succumbed to in the summer months. The AAQ continues to improve not because attendance is improving, but more because attendance is holding rock solid steady, while other years experienced some slips in between the ~40% and 70% marks of the season.
Andy what was the attendance for the Chicago Colorado match? I have looked everywhere I can think of and did not see it.
We're gonna be pretty damn close to my overall predicted AAQ of 2.5 for the season. Prolly a little above that, though.
With 61 games left, here are some projections regarding the final numbers: Median: The league needs 22 games above 14,175 to finish 4th, and 35 games above 15,093 to finish 3rd. Fourth should be easily attainable, but third might be a stretch. If the league can get there, that would be a very positive sign. <10K: The best the league can do is third place (11.1%). They would need 14 more games under 10K to finish in fourth place, and 18 more games under 10K to finish in fifth. The biggest culprits (Dallas, KC, New York, San Jose) have a combined 16 games left, so I suppose fourth place is possible, but it's highly, highly unlikely. >20K: Fourth place is out of reach (would require 23 more games at >20K). After that, the numbers bunch up. The league needs 10 more games over 10K to finish 5th, 9 more for 6th, 8 more for 7th, 7 more for 8th, and 3-6 more for 12th. (9th, 10th, and 11th place finishes are mathematically impossible.) Note that there's just a few games difference between 5th and 12th. Ultimately, I think that between 3 Seattle home games, 3 Toronto home games, the FCD doubleheader with Mexico, 5 LA home games, and 2 LA road games (Houston, Columbus), those 10 more games for 5th place is attainable. Average: If each team averages its median the rest of the way, the league would finish in 6th. But it's likely that they'll do better. First, if you assume that the FCD-Mexico doubleheader draws 50K, that moves them to 5th right there. Seattle and Chicago are likely to average above their medians (29K and 13.2K, respectively), and so might a few other teams (Houston, Columbus, LA). Some teams may average below their median (NE, NY), but on balance, I'd guess that the overall deviation from median will be positive. Whether it's enough to surpass 15821 for 4th place is tough to say, but it could be close. I would guess that the final AAQ will be 4 (Average 4th, Median 4th, <10K 3rd, >20K 5th).
I doubt it. If you look closely at the numbers, we're pretty locked into this 3.75 range. I really don't see up moving up at all and I think we might only go down to 4 or 4.25 at the worst.
Is 23 really out of reach? Seattle = 3 TFC = 3 LA = 5 That would leave 12 for the rest of the league: DC (5), Chicago (4), RSL (4) and Columbus (4) are going to really have to go some, but I think it may be possible. Am I crazy? In Crew land, we have the FO pushing Beckham pack that make the buyer buy two other games (of the three left) to get Beckham tickets. If the LA game sells out, the other three (Houston, Sigi's return with Seattle, and the season finale vs. NE) could be awful close.
Code: 2009 TEAM ATTENDANCE REPORT HOME GAMES ROAD GAMES DATES TOTAL AVERAGE DATES TOTAL AVERAGE Chicago Fire 11 153,031 13,912 12 208,529 17,377 Chivas USA 10 161,068 16,107 10 132,281 13,228 Colorado Rapids 11 140,476 12,771 10 162,160 16,216 Columbus Crew 11 150,258 13,660 11 215,431 19,585 FC Dallas 11 101,515 9,229 11 156,770 14,252 D.C. United 10 158,873 15,887 12 179,924 14,994 Houston Dynamo 12 191,255 15,938 12 172,669 14,389 Kansas City Wizards 10 100,189 10,019 10 168,238 16,824 Los Angeles Galaxy 10 193,794 19,379 13 248,008 19,078 New England Revolution 10 141,880 14,188 10 161,933 16,193 New York Red Bulls 11 134,518 12,229 12 204,913 17,076 Real Salt Lake 11 178,344 16,213 11 160,641 14,604 San Jose Earthquakes 12 181,644 15,137 9 131,643 14,627 Seattle Sounders FC 12 364,949 30,412 11 159,951 14,541 Toronto FC 12 243,691 20,308 10 132,394 13,239 MLS Totals 164 2,595,485 15,826 164 2,595,485 15,826 Code: 2008 CLUB ATTENDANCE REPORT HOME GAMES ROAD GAMES DATES TOTAL AVERAGE DATES TOTAL AVERAGE Chicago Fire 15 255,511 17,034 15 264,652 17,643 Chivas USA 15 226,717 15,114 15 255,975 17,065 Colorado Rapids 15 204,884 13,659 15 220,131 14,675 Columbus Crew 15 219,332 14,622 15 227,115 15,141 FC Dallas 15 195,356 13,024 15 281,712 18,781 D.C. United 15 297,531 19,835 15 233,133 15,542 Houston Dynamo 15 254,083 16,939 15 214,773 14,318 Kansas City Wizards 15 160,286 10,686 15 237,319 15,821 Los Angeles Galaxy 15 390,132 26,009 15 421,978 28,132 New England Revolution 15 263,706 17,580 15 211,938 14,129 New York Red Bulls 15 238,925 15,928 15 234,331 15,622 Real Salt Lake 15 242,690 16,179 15 231,367 15,424 San Jose Earthquakes 15 205,695 13,713 15 210,563 14,038 Toronto FC 15 301,793 20,120 15 211,654 14,110 MLS Totals 210 3,456,641 16,460 210 3,456,641 16,460
This isn't so bad, given we are in a recession. All other things staying the same, attendance should pick up as the economy improves, and more teams get their SSS built.
Can Chicago and RSL even hold 20 000? I thought their stadia were just under that mark (although I have seen different capacity numbers stated in different places).
Attendance only has to go up with 634 to have the same result as last year, this of course thanks to the Sounders Not bad for a year of recession
Also people like myself who have partial plans and some unused tickets that we need to cash in. I imagine other teams have this kind of system for season ticket holders.
Toyota Park can hold 20k (they announced that exact number last week). Rio Tinto's capacity is listed at 20,008 on Wiki.
I doubt DC does more than 2. Also, you've got chances with Houston and Chivas too. My guess would be 17-20 total over the rest of the season.
With the way you do the numbers, does >20 actually mean greater than 20 000 or does it really mean 20 000 and up? i.e. would an attendance of exactly 20 000 count in the "good" column?
The second post in thread shows it as >=20k (which is read as greater than or equal to 20,000) So an exact 20,000 would increase the >=20k % that we track (ie "good" would go up)
I always wonder about this when it comes to attendance numbers. Are teams double-dipping? Game A: I no-show with my season ticket. Am I part of that #? I know with NY for example...announced attendance is always higher than actual. Game B: I exchange the unused ticket from Game A and bring someone with me. Did that 'extra' ticket just get counted a second time?
If competitive soccer means anything, attendance shoud be good down the stretch becuase every team except for maybe three are in the postseason chase. Parity is king.