Bigsoccer Votes for Iranian Elections

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Rostam, May 27, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    This is ridiculous. The latest is that the wide margin is simply to ensure an uprising from the left so it can be crushed. Which is why the reports are that Mousavi's campaign is telling people not to act rashly and wait for official announcements by the campaign.

    Some of the results are suggesting 60-70% for AN in Lorestan and Tabriz!! Apparently Karrubi is third in Lorestan. This is just ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. Nothing but major fraud and no one other than AN's supporters are saying anything but that.

    Apparently Keyhan newpaper (right wing paper recently caught photoshoping AN's photos to make the crowds look more impressive) has already printed tomorrow's headline of AN winning with 63%!!
     
  2. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    This is pure comedy, the Interior Ministry claims to have counted 25 million votes so far, yet they have not reported a single discarded/void vote!? These numbers are so cooked up, it's not even funny.
     
  3. valanjak

    valanjak BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 14, 2005
    Perspolis
    No uprising will happen tomorrow. Mussavi and other two candidates are simply going to congratulate Ahamdienjad and accept defeat . Khamneini has probably already warned Musavi not to say anything that will risk a uprising.
     
  4. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    Highly unlikely I would have thought.

    PS IM, I would respond to all the (I am truly sorry to say this, because I did have a lot of respect for you) crap, absolute and utter crap that you posted with regards to others lying which simply parroted some of AN's comments taken from the mouth of AN, directly to your mouth bypassing any grey matter, but what's the point. Quite frankly, I think a donkey who is able to see all the facts would not follow AN.

    If things carry on like this, AN wins and there is no challenge etc., I do believe that conditions in Iran will become unbearable. I will have no sympathy for anything that befalls the country. If the country is either stupid enough to vote for him, or allows someone like him to stay at the top despite it all, then fuk them all. Iran and Iranians obviously deserves AN.

    IM, I don't live in Iran, neither did I vote for AN, but I hope when the shit hits the fan, you can live with your conscience. I have a comfy bed I can get to.

    PS I normally try to avoid expressing myself in anger, but this is BigSoccer, so I don't give a shit and I am sure both the tone of my post and the content makes it clear enough how disappointed, upset, or angry I am.
     
  5. Txtriathlete

    Txtriathlete Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    The American Empire
    Not saying that that wont happen, but you underestimate Mousavi. He was hand picked by Khomeini once, hes no push over.
     
  6. weasel

    weasel Member

    Oct 31, 2000
    NYC
    Nothing will happen. The people with the guns back AN.
     
  7. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    At one time in Iran the people who backed the Shah had the guns.....

    I hope that the will of the people of Iran overcome the obvious cheating committed by the puppet masters. Good luck to those in Iran who wanted and tried to get out from under AN and his mouth.
     
  8. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Exactly,

    IM, no matter how much sugar you put on a pile of crap, it is still a pile of crap.
     
  9. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    So far the cheating appears to be from the Internal Ministry (put in by the government). So it's AN's crowd. Some knowledgable Iranian analysts are saying that the regime (meanign in part Khamenei - or you like to call them "puppet masters") won't allow the system to be threatened for the sake of AN and his crowd.

    Although some others are saying it was all planned. There are about 3 or 4 different interpretations going on. Impossible to tell right now. It's a wait and see game.
     
  10. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Appreciate the clarification. Hopefully the powers that be will realize that any cheating will only hurt Iran both domestically and internationally.
     
  11. valanjak

    valanjak BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 14, 2005
    Perspolis
    He might be a no push over but he is certainly not going to risk the same establishment that he is a part of and defended during his time as a Prime Minister. This reminds of the student uprising in 1997 when Khatemi was in power. Everybody was eagerly waiting for Khatemi to come out and support the students but instead he turned his back on them and supported those who were speaking against the students.
     
  12. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    It's 7:59 AM in Tehran:

    • 1. Small crowds of Mousavi supporters have taken to the street in some areas. A state bank has been set on fire in south Tehran.

    • 2. The Police and Revolutionary Guards have closed down and surrounded two of Mousavi's main headquarters in Tehran. All the streets leading to the Interior Ministry have been closed. Karoubi has personally gone to the Interior Ministry to investigate what is going on with Ahmdinejad's cooked-up numbers.
     
  13. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for the update. Let us know what is happening there as often as you can.

    Do you think Mousavi or Karoubi face any danger if they have conclusive proof of voting fraud?
     
  14. Alan S

    Alan S Member

    Jun 1, 2001
    Palo Alto, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So riddle me this, IM. How does a candidates that draws huge crowds like this lose by such a huge margin? The wide margin of this election result stains credulity.

    [​IMG]


    I wanted to get an estimate of the size of that impressive crowd posted earlier by Bob!, so I used Google Earth to measure the size of the square. It appears to be 160 meters, by 520 meters, which makes it 82,000 square meters. It appears to be quite a compact crowd, but if you assume only 3 people per square meters, then at minimum the number of people in that square is 240,000 thousand.

    But that does not take into account that the crowd spilled onto the side streets. And it looks very compact!!! Likely way more that the estimate I have.

    [​IMG]


    And, I say the density of people is more that 3 per square meter.

    Taking that into account 500,000 is not un-reasonable estimate for that crowd.


    From where I sit these pictures provide compelling evidence that this election was rigged.
     
  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Alan S,

    First, let me say that if you had asked me to handicap the election right before the polls opened, I would not have predicted the margin of victory that we saw for Ahmadinejad. My own view was that if voter turnout was 80% or better, Mousavi would have a pularity in the first round. But that with 70% turnout, Ahmadinejad would have the clear upperhand, at best win a slight majority (around 51-53%) and at worst a pularity of the votes. I would have considered anything about 55% for Ahmadinejad to be extremely unlikely. Therefore, I am waiting to see the final tally and determine what was the voter participation and what was the final margin of victory for Ahmadinejad. And then, only then, to consider various possible explanations, with cheating being merely one of them depending on the evidence that emerges.

    Second, with respect to the picture you posted, that was a crowd that came to hear former president Mohammad Khatami in Esfahan. Khatami won the election in 1997 with 20 million votes. He strongly endorsed Mousavi, but Mousavi is no Khatami. Mousavi might have energized the more vocal and visible parts of Khatami's coalition, among urban youth and progressive elements in Iranian society, but the notion that he could win over more traditional elements as well the way that a cleric like Khatami did was always questionable in my eyes.

    Third, Iran is a very polarized society. Those who chose Mousavi as the symbol of their opposition to Ahmadinejad, including many who wanted a symbol for opposition to the regime, are a large, very active, and vocal minority. I may even voverestimate their strength because they are very visible if you live in city like Tehran, as I do, and especially if you live and work around the strata which they represent in this society. But they are a minority. In large cities like Tehran and Esfahan, they have millions of sympathisers and supporters. But I can post a picture of Ahmadinejad in Esfahan just a week or two before the picture that you have posted; you would see Ahmadinejad draw an equally large crowd in that city. But unlike Mousavi, Ahmadinejad support base is also spread across the width and breadth of this country.

    Finally, I will repost verbatim what I posted right after I voted yesterday with respect to what I personally observed when voting. I do so not because you can extrapolate election results based on a snap shot of what happened in what voting place, but because what I experienced did surprise me. The place I voted was in north Tehran, and while I know family members who voted elsewhere in north Tehran who claimed that everyone was for Mousavi, in this particular place I voted, to my surprise I only saw Ahmadinejad supporters. And I picked this place randomely and almost by accident.
     
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    This is verbatim what I posted a little less than 24 hours ago in another forum, after I had just voted.

     
  17. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    IM,

    Stop making excuses for this shameless behavior. Be a man and have some honor and admit that Ahmadinejad cheated. Nobody in his right mind, would believe that Ahmadinejad actually won 60% of the vote, in Mousavi's own hometown.
     
  18. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    !Bob,

    My only problem I have with you and others who supported Mousavi, is that you wanted to force that opinion on everyone else. Otherwise, look at the issue objectively: I am not religious; I lived in the US for 30 years and would be considered westernized; I was never even part of the revolution. Nor, contrary to some accusations, do I financially benefit from Ahmadinejad being elected, since in my line of work involved in Iran (which is heavily dependant on international trade), a more accomodating administration would open a lot more work for me as well. I was someone that Mousavi should have been able to convince and try to woo. Yet, people who opposed Ahmadinejad, especially Mousavi and his supporters, took a stance that was alienating me!

    They were disrepectful of millions of Iranians who I know support Ahmadinejad. Millions of Iranians who might have decided that we could do better with another president for the next 4 years, but who were not willing to endorse insults and attacks on their current president. Ahmadinejad is a popular president in Iran, even if he has high negatives with certain segments of our society. That is just the truth. If even an organization like "Terror Free Tomorrow" can concede and recognize as much, why should Iranians who oppose him pretend otherwise?

    Hundreds of thousands of people showed up last week in a rally not far from where I live to cheer Ahmadinejad, near Mosala. The traffic jams created were horrendous and the crowd so huge that Ahmadinejad could not even make it to the site he was to give his speech. Yet, instead of just seeing the facts, those who didn't like Ahmadinejad began with their tales of "bused in supporters" etc. I am sorry, but I don't think even the Iranian army could organize hundreds of thousands being bused overnight from among the military from one location to another that easily! Where is the common sense and where is the honesty in these allegations?

    You think Ahmadinejad is dangerous for Iran's future. You might be right, or you might not. The future is yet to be told. There is no denying that Iran, in refusing to budge to the pressures of the most powerful country on earth and the most powerful international lobbying group ever, has invited powerful enemies to harm it. It might not be wise to do so. Maybe Mousavi's more restrained language, while insisting on our rights, would do the trick or be more helpful to Iran. But the majority of the Iranian people are not willing to endorse insults and attacks on a president who stood up to those who wanted to force Iran to abandon its rights. They are not willing to accept that they are to be consigned to some 2nd class status in the international pecking order; that even though they are building their nuclear program on their own despite sanctions and opposition from everywhere; that they are not allowed to have this program. And naturally those who tell them they can't, will not be loved in Iran. Especially when for many Iranians, the pressures and threats on the nuclear program is emblematic or symbolic of a lot that is unfair in this world. People who feel they are treated unfairly do not always act wisely, but its hard to blame them for how they feel.
     
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    You have the right to express your beliefs and you have done so. My beliefs differ from your's. Unless I see evidence that the vote was rigged, I will not make that accusation. But I will admit that while you grossly overestimate Mousavi's support and grossly underestimate Ahmadinejad's, the margin of victory for Ahmadinejad was counter intuitive and went against my own expectations.

    As much as you and !Bob want to make this all personal, and vent your anger at me, I personally know both of you mean well regarding Iran. And like both of you for that reason. But Mani take this from me: Mousavi made a huge mistake tactically by listening to the voices that wanted to spew hatred at Ahmadinejad. That was alienating to millions of Iranians, including ones who might have been open minded about changing course.
     
  20. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Oh, so it was Mousavi spewing hatred, attacking his opponent's wife, calling his opponent a "traitor", etc. Oh wait, that was Mahmoud. :rolleyes:

    But whatever man, this election has been stolen. Mousavi is the real winner.

    These are the "results" as reported by Mahmoud's Interior Ministry. The graph is hilarious, apparently they used a ruler to draw it. We are suppose to believe that every city and village, every province and region voted 2 to 1 for Mahmoud. :rolleyes:

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Here is a deal: if the official election results show what you suggest, that in every province and every city and village, Ahmadinejad won by a 2:1 margin as you describe it, then I will admit their was rigging. But if they don't show anything of the sort, you admit you just made up or passed along one of the myriad of false rumors to undermine Ahmadinejad.

    When the final tally is released and the official results confirmed, I will post them province by province. I know that last time, there were unfounded accusations about cheating and false characterizations of the vote to make it appear rigged, as I analyzed the results carefully 4 years ago and found the accusations totally false and basless on their face. We will see what is the truth this time around.

    In the meantime, the results from this election (while surprising to me) were actually in line with the only independent poll from a non-Iranian group that conducts polls internationally, using accepted social science statistical methodology.
     
  22. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    It's 12:30 PM in Tehran:

    • 1. People have woken up, everyone is shocked, nobody had expected this level of election fraud. Scuffles have broken out between police and chanting Mousavi supporters in several Tehran squares.

    • 2. Mousavi will give a press conference at 2 PM Tehran time. There could be a march towards the Interior Ministry afterward.

    • 3. There are unconfirmed reports that Khamanei has ordered Mahmoud's Interior Ministry to stop their "vote counts". There hasn't been any new results announced in the last 4 hours. There is a possibility that Khamanei is negotiating with the opposition leaders behind the scene, and there is a chance that he might publicly interfere in the election dispute.

    • 4. None of the other three candidates has conceded. Even Ahmadinejad's fellow conservative Rezai, who is the commander of the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war, is disputing the results, and his spokesman has promised that "Rezaei would protect the Iranians' vote against Ahmadinejad, just as he protected Iran against Saddam".

      5. The turnout was 82%.
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I have a lot of work to do, but can't get myself to do much but to wait and see what unfolds in his drama that is Iran's 2009 presidential elections.

    The numbers released so far by the Interior Ministry (which would need to be confirmed by the GC before being the official results), do not add up for me either. At the same time, each ballot box and the votes in it are counted by a group which includes representatives of each of the candidates, with all the representatives signing off on the numbers in each box. And there are many other precautions against outright cheating of the sort that is being suggested. Indeed, in this election, they even wrote down the national ID card number for each person who was being handed a ballot, even though legally national ID cards are not required for voting and the birth certificates identification books are the only document that is required. That was done for double checking each of the results confirmed for each box with the numbers of people who were given ballots and whose ID cards numbers were recorded.

    When the final tally is officially released, I will be able to offer my guess as to whether the numbers are legitimate or not. I don't prejudge this issue either way at this point, but fully endorse the results being carefully reviewed and monitored. I don't endorse Mousavi claiming he won the election, when the best he can request is a recount and an investigation.
     
  24. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKDAH33328320090613
     
  25. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    Here is a funny story, I posted about 8-10 hours ago that the headline was going to be AN winning with 63% and it was finalised for Keyhan....SURPRISE!!! I must be a soothsayer. Or Keyhan must be a soothsayer.

    Karrubi has just complained about the counting and said he won't stay quiet. It was addressing the people.

    Voter turn out was apparently over 80%, some saying 85%! So absolute and utter crap to suggest AN won, let alone with such a margin and such few votes for Karrubi and Rezaei!

    The other 3 candidates have written and appealed to Khamenei and he hasn't returned a response. He is apparently either considering what the hell do to (obviously if it comes and he helps it to come out that there was fraud, it would somewhat undermine the "system"; plus the different poles of power in Iran make it very difficult and dangerous in these situation - a coup by 2 or 3 different groups is not unthinkable but would be very unpredictable) or some are saying he might not be responding because he was complicit. The former seems more likely for now.
     

Share This Page