(Cross-posted to Lucruri neinteresante) Since scaryice is still recovering after his holiday hangover... You all know the system, so here's the table. Egypt replaces Senegal. Check one of the previous editions for the FAQ. Code: 1 Brazil 60.3 29.3 31 2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28 3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30 4 Spain 54.3 25.3 29 5 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32 6 France 49.3 23.3 26 7 England 47.3 26.3 21 ------------------------------ 8 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 9 Netherlands 38.7 14.7 24 10 Mexico 37.3 19.3 18 11 Czech Republic 33.0 6.0 27 12 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23 13 USA 28.0 13.7 14.3 14 Turkey 27.0 10.0 17 15 Paraguay 24.7 11.7 13 16 Japan 22.3 13.3 9 17 Greece 22.0 0.0 22 18 Korea Republic 20.7 15.7 5 19 Romania 20.0 0.0 20 20 Scotland 19.0 0.0 19 21 Nigeria 17.3 2.7 14.7 22 Colombia 16.0 0.0 16 23 Australia 15.3 11.3 4 24 Cameroon 15.0 3.0 12 25 Uruguay 13.7 2.7 11 26 Cote d'Ivoire 13.3 6.0 7.3 27 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 28 Saudi Arabia 10.0 8.0 2 29 Guinea 10.0 0.0 10 30 Egypt 7.7 0.0 7.7 31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 32 Honduras 3.0 0.0 3 Top 7 + South Africa seeded. England and Portugal tied - I chose England as seed because of their superior past WC performance. The pots: Pot A: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot B: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland, Turkey Pot C: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA Pot D: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay Possible draw: Group A: South Africa, Romania, Iran, Uruguay Group B: Germany, Portugal, USA, Guinea Group C: Argentina, Greece, Mexico, Egypt Group D: Brazil, Czech Republic, Australia, Cameroon Group E: France, Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Colombia Group F: Italy, Scotland, Honduras, Nigeria Group G: Spain, Netherlands, Japan, Cote d'Ivoire Group H: England, Turkey, Korea Republic, Paraguay Previous Editions July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007
Maybe. But not if Cameroon keeps losing to lower ranked teams. I'm starting to think we keep seeing them as a powerhouse, but, like Costa Rica, they have slipped enough that we should stop seeing them that way. Anyone that follows Africa more closely have an opinion? ...checking the current rankings, Egypt isn't that far behind them. So maybe that wasn't too shocking a loss yesterday.
I think, though it'd be tough, I'd really love an opportunity like that. And I bet Portugal would, too.
Oh, and except for the Egypt over Senegal change, I expect this is pretty much identical with December, being as there was virtually no change in the FIFA rankings.
How about both? H is pretty nasty too. I think it's fantastic that as other confederations improve, the WC groups just get harder and harder.
Yeah. The quality host that was the US in '94 is looking to be well outdone by South Africa. They're looking like crap in Ghana right now, and I don't expect they'll be much better by '10. I would not be shocked to see them fail to make it out of the second round of qualifying.
With no changes in the order of the top 9, and (I think) no changes in the top teams in each confederation, it looks like this month will be the same as last month. And with only Asian and minnow CONCACAF qualifying next month, we probably won't see much movement until the summer. ...actually, it looks like Senegal is back in for the mock draw, replacing Nigeria.
The only problem with that mock draw is that Canada, Honduras, and Mexico cannot all qualify since they're all in the same group and only two teams advance to the hex from each group.
You know, this is one thing that's kinda sad about South Africa hosting. If we got that group, I would pick the USA to win it. Put us in almost any other group and we're working hard and hoping for 2nd.
i was thinking the same thing, well seal that group, but then well have most likly the czechs in the round of 16 because spain always wins the group, and that would be a tough one.
And what a shame that is. Let it be no secret that I really like Canada and Honduras in the CONCACAF and this time around I actually get the feeling that both of them have really good teams who could at least challenge for the 3rd and 4th spots in the hex. So seeing them in the same semi final group with Mexico as an almost certain qualifier from that group made me really sad. I know that in order to qualify, you just have to beat whatever opposition comes at you, but looking at the other options, I would really have liked if both Canada and Honduras would have had a chance of qualifying for the Hex and fight it out there. A group like Mexico, Panama, Canada and Cuba would still not have been easy for Canada, but they would at least have had a decent chance and face the kind of opposition you "need" to beat in order for you to qualify. The same goes for a group like Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Haiti. Still not easy, but manageable. As I see the strength of CONCACAF teams right now, I feel that Costa Rica and Trinidad are both below the level they had in 2006 and Guatemala and Panama will definitely put up a fight, but I doubt they would be much better than Canada and Honduras. So I have a feeling, we may need to say goodbye to one of the four strongest teams already in the semi final round even if all teams perform to their best level. I know it's based on FIFA rankings and that the month chosen was just a very unfortunate one for these two teams and I choose not to believe in a conspiracy against Canada either, I just think it's a shame that we don't get to see the best teams in the Hex. My dream Hex would be something like this: USA, Mexico, Guatemala, Panama or Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada, but I have a feeling it'll be USA, Guatemala, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Of course, Honduras and Canada could just make sure to eliminate Mexico, I just doubt they both have the strength and consistency to stay in the fight and eventually pass Mexico. But if I allow myself to dream, something like this would be great. Mexico - Canada 1-1, 1-1 Honduras - Jamaica 3-0, 1-1 Mexico - Honduras 2-0, 1-2 Canada - Jamaica 4-0, 1-0 Mexico - Jamaica 4-0, 0-0 Honduras - Canada 2-0, 0-1 leading to Canada 11 Honduras 10 Mexico 9 Jamaica 2 Having said this, Canada will probably bomb and finish below Jamaica at the bottom, but at least, I've had the right to dream from November until late summer.
that early group with Canada, Honduras, Mexico, Jamaica is unfortunate, even Jamaica with all their euro players can put up a good fight, its too bad because I feel Canada and Honduras are the 2 best teams in concacaf after the big 2. Having said that I hope Canada can make the WC in 2010, it will be tough but if they play like they did in the gold cup, there is hope.
It's really frustrating, every 4 years, to see how lopsided the quadrangular is. I remember back in '98, Canada and El Salvador were the winners of their quadranglar, and they finished bottom of the hex. I have no idea (off the top of my head) who were in the other quadrangulars, but I remember that the US had a really tough group. OK. Looked it up. US, Costa Rica, TnT & Guatemala. Probably could be compared to this time's Canada group. Then again, I do think things are getting tougher in general in CONCACAF. Panama is good now, and isn't out of place in the Hex. So I think there are actually 8 teams that legitimately belong in the hex. Someone's got to get eliminated somewhere. Sure, it'd be better to have one of the Canadian group switched with a bottom team in another group. But, oh, well. That's qualifying in CONCACAF. Every confederation have their problem groups.
From the possible draws listed from the link above, which group do you think is the group of death? I think it would be group B or H.