Hillary more electable than Obama, upsetting the conventional wisdom

Discussion in 'Elections' started by superdave, Jan 24, 2008.

  1. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Since there are so many posts in the Hillary and Obama threads about the two candidates' electability, I thought I'd provide some hard data.

    http://www.calendarlive.com/media/acrobat/2008-01/34896849.pdf

    Scroll down to page 12. Hillary is as strong or stronger than Obama against Romney, McCain and Huckabee. Obama beats Giuliani by 17 points, while Hillary "only" beats him by 16. Most importantly, Hillary edges McCain, but McCain edges Obama.

    And that's BEFORE the Republicans and the conservatively biased MSM have several months working over Obama.

    Now, I think that an actual general election campaign will change all these numbers. My own counterfactual opinion is that Obama still is slightly stronger, slightly more electable than Hillary. But to the extent we have real information, it's OBVIOUS that any difference in electability is marginal. So the overheated Hillary haters need to chill out.
     
  2. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting stuff. But I don't dislike Hillary because I think she'd lose the general election; I dislike her because I'm afraid she'll win. I don't want her to be President.
     
  3. yossarian

    yossarian Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 16, 1999
    Big City Blinking
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  4. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Ding, ding, ding, ding.

    As much as I have posted in this forum, I have stayed away from the electability argument for the most part. I think I have responded to Ben once or twice simply stating that I think Hillary has a ceiling that isn't going to move. People are set in their ways when it comes to her.

    If anything, that ceiling is coming down lower as s/he alienates people like me who likely would have jumped on board if she were the nominee.

    Nonetheless, I think casting a vote based on electability is not a good use of your vote. Pick the person that you want to be president and vote for that person.

    Having said that, ;):D polls at this juncture are pretty useless for any general election matchups. Dukakis was kicking the living crap out of bush as late as 3 months before the election.

    There are trends that I think demonstrate that Obama can be a strong national candidate. He has closed drastically in every state. As much as the Clintons trumpet their victories, the polls had Hillary with double digit or even 20+ point leads in IA, NH, NV and SC that virtually evaporated once those states got to see and know Obama better. The key is that Obama has outperformed her with independents and republicans by wide margins. He has done extremely well in redder areas of all states like northern Nevada and Northwest Iowa.

    So, you can ask yourself, would Hillary pick up those people? Conversely, would Hillary's army of older women vote for Obama in the general?

    Again, just pick the best person and move on.
     
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Since when does a public opinion poll constitute "hard data"?

    Since when is HRC hatred based in doubt about her electability?
     
  6. Stud83

    Stud83 Member+

    Jun 1, 2005
    The data is very inconsistent still and can't be taken seriously.
    Here, for example, Hillary loses to McCain in virtually every poll, but as many as 11% in some cases:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

    Obama is winning in some polls, losing in others:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

    Interesting to note that McCain's numbers are going up while both Obama's and Clinton's are declining.
     
  7. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    I give McCain huge ups. He didn't go negative. He stuck with his plan. Most of us had him dead and buried and now he may very well be the nominee. He is popular with a huge chunk of America and draws well from independents and across party lines.

    I have a big wall to climb with Iraq before I could consider giving him my vote, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out. I also have problems with his age.
     
  8. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, we're already there so that ship has sailed. And his strong, principled stand against torture certainly speaks well for him.
     
  9. Riz

    Riz Member+

    Nov 18, 2004
    R-ville, Murrlin
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Agreed.

    I hate her for a variety of reasons, none of which relate to her electability.
     
  10. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    :rolleyes:

    Look at the only really recent poll. Which supports my assertion, and, frankly, disproves yours.

    He's +1 in the recent one you cite, he's -1 in the one I cite. I'm confident that's within the MOE. :rolleyes:
     
  11. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Is this irony?

    One of the keys to understanding McCain (and his relationship with the media) is to know that he caved on torture. The old wizened ********er CAVED on TORTURE. To suck up to Bush and the base. How is that any better than Romney flip flopping on abortion?
     
  12. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    If Obama is the nominee, I can not rule out voting for Ron Paul. He is popular with a huge chunk of Big Soccer and draws well from wackos and across party lines.
     
  13. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 21, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You are lying again.
     
  14. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Just write in Gephart and be done with it.
    ;)
     
  15. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
  16. weipenguigumbi

    weipenguigumbi New Member

    Dec 4, 2007
    Hillary has many of the core Dems. But she has many, many problems.

    She may be winning a little under 50% in the states she has won, but guess what has started happening to the Biden and Richardson votes, the majority of them will be going to Obama or Edwards. If Edwards dropped out, 2/3's of his vote would go to Obama. At the Iowa caucus I was at, these people simply stated that it was because they did not like Clinton, and would not vote for her. And in no way do I think this is unique to Iowa, and significant portion of her own party, fair or not, does not like her.

    Her second problem is what she is now doing to Obama. Obama, fair or not, is like a rock star to many young dems and by distorting truths about him she is seriously alienating this group of her party. Also by doing this she is alienating blacks who take a lot of pride in Obama and his success. Her gaffs about LBJ, don't make her a racist by a long shot, but they may have just revealed that the Clinton's simply just don't get it, which many blacks always thought they did. These groups may just not vote, but these votes are the ones needed to tip Dems over the top. And then you have the independents who love Obama's message of trying to get along. Independents are becomming a huge portion of the current voting demographic and many will vote for McCain over her.

    And all these problems come before she even has to deal with Repubs in the general elections. I have never in my life met a Republican that likes the woman, and I am confident she would make a party that is very apathetic right now, get out the vote against her.

    And isn't Bloomberg going to enter if he senses that people aren't satisfied with the nominations, which to me basically means if Hillary is elected. He could seriously Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, the Democratice party.

    Are there enough middle aged women and core Dems to carry Clinton to victory in a general election? Before she started ragging on Obama maybe, but I think Hillary and Bill are killing Hillary's chances with the people in the middle ground.
     
  17. GiuseppeSignori

    Jun 4, 2007
    Chicago
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An honest question, do you have any reason other than your anecdotal evidence to believe this is true? If you had asked me a couple weeks ago, I would have been confident that Obama would take the lion's share of Edwards supporters. Now I'm not so sure.
     
  18. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    I can't remember where I saw it. I think it was in the Bloomberg polling numbers I posted in the State Polls thread. They had some nationwide polling information that Hillary would actually get more of the Edwards support at this point.

    I also thought that at some level Obama and Edwards are splitting a sizeable anti-Hillary vote. That could still be as the results from this specific question might be the same as national polls in general -- Hillary is benefitting from name recognition but as people learn more about Obama, he could still pick up a majority of Edwards support.

    I don't think divvying up his support is a given either way. Of course, he could likely change that if he actually picked one over the other.
     
  19. biggyv

    biggyv Member

    May 18, 2000
    PGH PA
    This adds nothing to the discourse.

    McCain reached a compromise with Bush on torture. Whether he "caved" is up for debate. But to just say someone is lying does nothing for the discussion.

    Offer your opinion as to why you don't think McCain caved.
     
  20. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He didn't "cave" because he wasn't in charge of US policy. He was swimming against the stream. And he has continued to speak out against it at GOP debates, even though it has hurt his standing with some party hardliners.
     
  21. SoFla Metro

    SoFla Metro Member

    Jul 21, 2000
    Ft. Lauderdale, FL
    Ask John Kerry about basing decisions on electability.
     
  22. SoFla Metro

    SoFla Metro Member

    Jul 21, 2000
    Ft. Lauderdale, FL
    As much as I think the Sunday talk shows are a useless waste of time, I did take away one thing re: electability that builds in to my theory of this coming election.

    My theory is this: we're coming off of 8 years of Republican rule with a president who is vastly unpopular. This by itself makes the '08 presidential election one that is the Democrats' one to lose, rather than win (in other words, if they don't do anything stupid, they are supposed to win this election, all else being equal).

    Here's what the talk shows say, and I tend to agree with it: there's only one candidate that can galvanize the Republican party at this point, and her name is Hillary Clinton.

    Unless there's some overriding reason to give her the front spot (which I haven't yet seen from her as her), all you gain from nominating her is providing the moribund Republican party a galvanizing figure to campaign against. No longer do they have to present actual ideas, but rather they just have to remind us of the turmoil of the Clinton presidency.*


    So, I guess in that respect, an argument for Hillary in favor of electability is an argument in counterintuition.

    *I realize said turmoil was largely the making of the Republicans, but that's pretty much immaterial.
     
  23. SoFla Metro

    SoFla Metro Member

    Jul 21, 2000
    Ft. Lauderdale, FL
    The only thing you can say with any degree of certainty is that there's a much larger percentage of voters who definitely won't vote for Hillary than there is a percentage of voters who definitely won't vote for Obama. It's up to the Democrats to decide if that's a hill they can climb.
     
  24. SoFla Metro

    SoFla Metro Member

    Jul 21, 2000
    Ft. Lauderdale, FL
    Except for that one pesky vote that let W. decide what constitutes torture...
     
  25. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You know what? My memory isn't all it could be.
     

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