I dont think it will work that way. If Romney does not win Iowa and S Carolina, its not like he will throw in the towel. They are realitively unimportant in the overall tally and he can certainly still win without those 2 states. Especially if it goes to a candidate like Huckabee that will most likely not collect alot of other victories. Better for Romney that Huckabee takes those delegates as opposed to Guilani. Huckabee might make a nice splash, but he will be buried by the bigger guns once they get into bigger states.
It's not about delegate count at this point, it's about building momentum. If Romney places poorly in Iowa and SC, and doesn't get a convincing win in NH, it will be difficult to recover.
Yeah I agree momentum is key, but I see his struggling in Iowa/S Carolina as paving the way for Guliani, not Huckabee.
Absolutely. Huckabee has the disadvantage of having no money, but he's using the same evangelical networks that Rove used in 2004 to turn out the social conservative vote (there's an article on this in todays NYT). Plus, he has the 'advantage' of not having maxed out many donors yet, so success in Iowa could lead to a relative flood of money. He has two problems right now. 1. His fundraising to this point sucks and he's going to need to do a lot to get up on the air in the Feb 5th states after NH. 2. The Club for Growth is really opposed to him and they have a lot of money and a lot of the conservative establishment in their pocket. They'll try to use SC as a firewall as it was in 2000 against McCain. Working against these disadvantages is his ability to draw on that evangelical network for relatively cheap (compared to tv ads) GoTV.
I think this is quite likely. Giuliani's falling in the polls but his position in the race may be getting structurally stronger, given that Huckabee's weakening Romney, but still faces pretty big hurdles to getting the nomination (the money thing and opposition from the 'cut every tax anywhere' wing of the party).
I guess Huckabee isn't wrong about everything..heh heh Seriously, I find it slightly annoying that it takes this long for these stories to come out. Huckabee has been moving up for quite some time and only now do people realize that he's on the far right.
A lot of stuff seems to be coming out that could potentially harm Huckabee's presidential bid. Mostly small stuff, but plenty of it. Somehow, though, I just don't think it's going to affect him. Huckabee is almost (Bill) Clinton-esque in his charm, his ability in communicating with the people, and his ability to dodge controversy. A story could come out tomorrow that says that back in '95, Huckabee strangled puppies in front of orphans infected with AIDS, just so he could watch them cry, and Mike would come out and explain the whole thing in a way that would leave voters and journalists feeling warm and fuzzy.
I think there's more than a bit of truth to this, at least as far as the press covering the Republican nomination. They'll stop pressing it if they think Republican voters aren't interested.
Well, if Giuliani wins Iowa maybe Huckabee's done. He may have peaked too soon-right now CNN is showing a nasty piece on him.
Giuliani hasn't even campaigned in Iowa, he's going to finish between 3rd and 5th, depending on how well Thompson and Paul do. The latest poll numbers from Iowa... Huckabee 39% Romney 17% Thompson 10% Giuliani 9% Paul 8% McCain 6% http://www.newsweek.com/media/75/0714_newsweek_poll.pdf Other polls have the top much closer, but there's nothing that puts Giuliani within 12 points and no higher than 3rd.
FWIW, Huckabee's now surged to a strong second according to CNN. Off-topic, but in that story is one of the reasons why I'm tempted to go back to my alma mater and get my journalism degree revoked because of sheer embarassment. From the fifth graf: The poll, conducted December 6-9 ... From the 18th graf, AKA the next-to-last graf: But (CNN polling director Keating) Holland added that "Clinton remains the Democrat to beat. Forty percent in a late-December poll is a position most candidates in past years would envy. Once upon a time, reporters were expected to get their facts straight. Nowadays, that notion seems as antiquated as steam locomotives and fedoras for men.
But he's not. The folks at the National Review's Corner have been trashing him for being a "leftist Christian fundamentalist."
Huckabee is a moderate on the following issues: - environmental protection - law and order/crime and punishment - immigration (don't look at his immigration proposal, look at his record as governor) - free trade - campaign finance - government spending/taxation - social security/healthcare He's in no way, shape or form "far right." His stances are analogous to those of a typical European Christian Democrat.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhu.htm In fact, as the story broke over the weekend that Huckabee said he wanted to isolate AIDS patients back in 1992, the DNC ignored the opportunity to slam the candidate from the left. "He'll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill," mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington. "His letting out murderers because they shout 'Jesus', his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain't even scratching the surface of what we've got on him." The discipline the Democrats have shown in not engaging Huckabee has earned the praise of one former Republican Party official: "The Democrats are doing a much better job restraining themselves than the GOP did in 2003 when Howard Dean looked like he was on the brink of winning the nomination."
Makes sense to me. If the Republicans nominate this guy, they're finished in the general election. No way this guy becomes President IMO. Too far off the mainstream.
On the other hand, perhaps the attacks on Dean were a stroke of brilliance, considering they got the Democrats to select Kerry.
The democrats are going to win this time no matter what. So, we might as well let the born again Christians have their day in the sun and pick Huckabee. At least he will make for an entertaining campaign.
Therein lies the problem - if the Christians "have their day in the sun" this time around, you may as well write off the GOP for the next twenty election cycles. Go Huckabee!