MLS Playoff Race 2007 [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Gemmell, Aug 29, 2007.

  1. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ah, good points, but I think that the KC result is still important to Colorado's chances:

    If Colorado wins, Chicago draws LA, and:

    ...KC wins, then KC is in and Colorado and Chicago tie on points at 38. Colorado would then win the two-team tie-breaker based on goal differential.

    ...KC draws, then KC, Chi and Colorado are all tied on points at 38. The three-way tiebreaker would (according to my interpretation of the rules at least) have Chicago take the highest position based on win/loss record among the 3 teams that are tied. Then there would be a second tie-breaker between Colorado and KC which would be determined by goal differential first, and then goals scored second if goal differential is tied. I believe that Colorado would have to win by 3 goals vs. RSL in order to pass KC on GD assuming KC ties this weekend.

    ...KC loses, then Colorado is in.

    I believe that all of those scenarios are covered in the list I made, but I'll re-check it.
     
  2. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You missed the KC win/Chi draw scenario, and the KC draw/Chi draw scenario (while clinching for Colorado according to the MLS press release) is the subject of much discussion in may BigSoccer threads right now and nobody has the 100% for sure answer yet.
     
  3. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Revised with one more scenario added for Colorado

    Colorado scenarios to clinch playoffs

    Colorado win vs. RSL and any of the following also happen:
    • KCW lose @ FCD
    • LAG win @ Chi
    • LAG draw @ Chi and KCW win @ FCD
    • KC draws Dallas and Colorado's winning margin against RSL is 3 or more goals
    +++++++++

    KC scenarios to clinch playoffs
    • KC win @ FCD
    • KC draw @ FCD and Colorado do not win vs. RSL by more than 2 goals
    • KC lose @ FCD, but Colorado either lose or draw vs. RSL
    +++++++++

    LA scenarios to clinch playoffs
    • LA win @ Chi, and either Colorado lose or draw vs RSL, or KC lose @ FCD
    ++++++++

    Chicago scenarios to clinch playoffs
    • CHI win vs. LA or
    • CHI draw vs. LA, and either Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, or KC lose or draw @ FCD or
    • CHI lose vs. LA, but both Colorado lose or draw vs. RSL, and KC lose @ FCD
    ++++++++

    Houston scenarios to clinch #1 seed in Western Conference
    • Houston win @ Chivas
    ++++++++

    Chivas scenarios to clinch #1 seed in Western Conference
    • Chivas win or draw vs. Houston
     
  4. EdsonArantes

    EdsonArantes Member

    Apr 6, 2006
    Barra Brava
    Ok, that makes sense (to the poster who explained how Chi and LA could both get in). I was confused by this:

    KC scenarios to clinch playoffs

    * KC win or draw @ FCD or
    * KC lose @ FCD, but Colorado either lose or draw vs. RSL

    The second scenario didn't mention anything about the LA/Chi game.
     
  5. JBReynolds

    JBReynolds Member

    Aug 30, 1999
    Chicago, IL
    Latest MLS Playoff Race Update

    They're still confused...

    CHI draws, KC draws, COL wins = CHI clinches.

    CHI draws ("LA fails to win"), KC draws, COL wins = KC clinches.

    CHI draws, KC draws, COL wins = COL clinches.

    Since it's impossible for all three of CHI/COL/KC to qualify, one of the above is wrong. (It's still wrong even if you fix the apparent typo and change LA to Chicago in the KC scenario).
     
  6. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It doesn't say that. If you change it to "COL wins by less than 3", then it does say that, and then your 2nd and 3rd examples don't contradict.
     
  7. JBReynolds

    JBReynolds Member

    Aug 30, 1999
    Chicago, IL
    Read it again. The KC draw scenario says "if either one of the following" occur, not both. According to the release, a KC draw and "LA fails to win" is all that is needed for KC to clinch, regardless of the COL result.

    The COL win scenario is also "any one of the following", which would mean that a COL win and a CHI draw is enough for COL to clinch regardless of margin of victory or KC result.
     
  8. Autogolazo

    Autogolazo BigSoccer Supporter

    Feb 19, 2000
    Bombay Beach, CA
    KC draws, 38 pts. Col wins 4-0, 38 pts and better goal differential.

    I think you meant "Chicago fails to win".

    Because "LA fails to win" could means Chicago winning, and if that happens, then KC can draw and still be out on goal diff vs. Colorado.
     
  9. JBReynolds

    JBReynolds Member

    Aug 30, 1999
    Chicago, IL
    I'm just quoting the MLS press release. I already pointed out the probable typo above. It's still wrong even if that is corrected.
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How $@$@%! stupid do they have to be at this point? This has gone beyond minor annoyance to embarrassing.
     
  11. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wow - and Kansas City and Colorado are playing at nearly the same time. I wonder if my computer can handle having two games going at once on mlslive.tv. Never tried it before but this is going to have to be the first attempt.
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... The "Beckham and The Landonauts" are still alive update ...

    Code:
    [b][U]         GP  W   L   D   PTS  GR  MPP  PPG   T#  M#  SSE#[/U]
    1   DCU  30  16  7   7   55   0   55   1.83  -   -   X
    2   CDC  30  15  7   8   53   0   53   1.77  -   -   -
    3   HOU  30  15  8   7   52   0   52   1.73  -   -   -
    4   NER  30  14  8   8   50   0   50   1.67  -   -   -
    5   FCD  30  13  12  5   44   0   44   1.47  -   -   -
    6   NYR  30  12  11  7   43   0   43   1.43  -   -   -
    7   KCW  30  11  12  7   40   0   40   1.33  -   -   -
    8   CHI  29  9   10  10  37   1   40   1.28  -   1*  -
    -------------------------------------------------------
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]9   CMB  30  9   11  10  37   0   37   1.23  -   -   -
    10  COL  30  9   13  8   35   0   35   1.17  -   -   -[/COLOR]
    11  LAG  29  9   13  7   34   1   37   1.17  1*  4   -
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]12  RSL  30  6   15  9   27   0   27   0.90  -   -   -
    13  TFC  30  6   17  7   25   0   25   0.83  -   -   -[/COLOR]
    
    * Chicago clinches with a win or a draw.
      Los Angeles clinches with a win because 
      they own the tiebreaker against Chicago.
    
      Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    
      MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR)
      T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
      M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
      SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 [/b]
    Code:
    [B]Remaining League Schedule
    
    CDC: ---
    CHI: LAG
    CMB: ---
    COL: ---
    DCU: ---
    FCD: ---
    HOU: ---
    KCW: ---
    LAG: @CHI
    NER: ---
    NYR: ---
    RSL: ---
    TFC: ---
    [/B]
     
  13. Chris '66

    Chris '66 New Member

    Aug 9, 2007
    Brooklyn, NY
    So it comes down to the LA-Chicago matchup afterall. What a dream finale. The ratings should be great.

    Regardless who wins, the playoff matchups are verrry solid:

    1. If LAG goes thru, the Chivas-Gals rivalry goes to a whole new level and Becks mania rises again! If Chicago takes that last West spot, you have Blanco to help rile up those sleeping Chivas fans. That also allows for the potential that Chicago could win the Western Conf as an East team!

    2. Houston and Dallas gives us the Texas derby. Excellent. Just erase those gridiron lines before gametime fellas.

    3. DC gets the supposedly weaker KC which helps in their quest to play the MLS Cup at home. (Watch out, here comes the Wizards!) MLS poobahs must hope for a DC vs. LA or Chicago championship (hey, why not?). As an RBNY fan with tix to the big game, other than my club going all the way, this is my desire for the raucus gameday experience.

    4. NY and NE have their battle of the artificial turf NFL Stdiums, so there is no surface advantage here. Close enough for away fans to travel.


    I have been an advocate for a six team playoff format, and I still believe the home and home total goals thang suffers from traditionally boring first games, but this year looks very nice all around.
     
  14. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    If Chicago goes through, they could still push Kansas City to the West.
     
  15. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Easily the worst case scenario for the league. Two attendance dogs in an absolutely dreadful playoff matchup.

    Set in stone
    New England vs New York
    Houston vs Dallas

    If Chicago wins
    DC vs. Chicago
    Chivas vs. Kansas City

    LA/Chicago draw
    DC vs. Kansas City
    Chivas vs. Chicago

    If Los Angeles wins
    DC vs. Kansas City
    Chivas vs. Los Angeles
     
  16. suppitty

    suppitty Member

    Mar 15, 2004
    DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is probably the most important regular season game in MLS history. I can't remember the last time so much was on the line going into the last weekend of the season, let alone the last game. This game has the two biggest stars (maybe 3 including Landon) in the league fighting over the final playoff spot, with both teams in the midst of somewhat miraculous season turnarounds (Chicago's is obviously less miraculous). If LA wins it will set up a wild first round of the playoffs with regional rivals going at it in 3/4 series. Lets just hope the game lives up to its potential.
     
  17. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... The "Tony Meola has now sung" update ...

    Code:
    [b][U]         GP  W   L   D   PTS  PPG   WIN%[/U]
    1   DCU  30  16  7   7   55   1.83  0.65
    2   CDC  30  15  7   8   53   1.77  0.63
    3   HOU  30  15  8   7   52   1.73  0.62
    4   NER  30  14  8   8   50   1.67  0.60
    5   FCD  30  13  12  5   44   1.47  0.52
    6   NYR  30  12  11  7   43   1.43  0.52
    7   CHI  30  10  10  10  40   1.33  0.50
    8   KCW  30  11  12  7   40   1.33  0.48
    -----------------------------------------[COLOR="SlateGray"]
    9   CMB  30  9   11  10  37   1.23  0.47
    10  COL  30  9   13  8   35   1.17  0.43
    11  LAG  30  9   14  7   34   1.13  0.42
    12  RSL  30  6   15  9   27   0.90  0.35
    13  TFC  30  6   17  7   25   0.83  0.32[/b][/COLOR]
     
  18. DC06

    DC06 Member+

    Oct 9, 2006
    Within amile of home
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: ... The "Tony Meola has now sung" update ...

    So...

    DCU v. CHI
    CDC v. KC
    HOU v. FCD
    NE v. NYRB

    Right?
     
  19. ChiefTalk

    ChiefTalk New Member

    Sep 11, 2007
    Do they reseed after the quarterfinals?
     
  20. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    How is Chivas/Wizards a dreadful playoff matchup? EJ and Sealy vs Razov and Galindo? Preki against the Wizards? The two teams in the league absolutely dedicated to attack first soccer?

    :confused:
     
  21. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    These aren't the "quarterfinals". They're the "conference semifinals". There's "nothing" to reseed.
     
  22. crewfighter

    crewfighter New Member

    Feb 15, 2006
    Claddagh's Roof
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it has something to do with a horrible atmosphere because only 2,000 fans will be in the stands for each leg because nobody cares about either team.

    yeah something like that.
     
  23. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I'm always amazed at folks that can't just watch the game on the field. While good atmospher can lift a bad game, or make a good game great, bad atmosphere doesn't ruin a good game.
     
  24. crewfighter

    crewfighter New Member

    Feb 15, 2006
    Claddagh's Roof
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your right it's just depressing as a MLS fan when a game is supposed to mean alot and it obviously doesn't mean anything at all when no one wants to be there to watch it.

    It's not only KC and Chivas. Probably every team except DC, Chicago, and Houston will have horrible home attendance in the playoffs.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Says the Wizards fan.

    We won't name names (;)), but I, quite frankly, find games at some venues almost inherently unwatchable.
     

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