Over a year away and already the top matchups seem pretty clear, assuming the rumored names enter and barring primary upsets: CO: Schaffer (R) vs Udall (D) LA: Landrieu (D) vs Kennedy (R) ME: Collins (R) vs Allen (D) MN: Coleman (R) vs Franken (D) NE: Bruning (R) vs Kerrey (D) NH: Sununu (R) vs Shaheen (D) OR: Smith (R) vs Merkley (D) VA: Davis (R) vs Warner (D)
For real? Damn. Then I hope the Republican run Scott Garret or (please god, please) Christie Whitman against him instead of the usual giving away of the seat (See Kean Jr.)
Garrett won't run. If he did, he'd be giving away the 5th District to Democrats (and he might have a tough time getting re-elected, anyway). It'd be political suicide and isn't even being considered. I haven't heard any rumors about Whitman even taking a look at it. Winning a New Jersey Senate seat against Frank Lautenberg in a Presidential year is almost impossible. And when the GOP has some very tough seats to defend nationally, there just isn't much money to throw at it, even with a potentially good candidate. Sorry, but there's no race here. State Assemblyman Joe Pennacchio is the announced challenger. But apparently Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick is also considering volunteering to be the lamb led to slaughter. No, Kerrey has not announced he's running, yet. He said he would consider it and only if Hagel didn't run. So now he's going to consider it. Also, if Kerrey does run, the seat is obviously no longer safe for Republicans. Therefore, there is alerady an effort to recruit former Governor Johanns, who is very popular and could compete against Kerrey. If that happens, expect a major primary battle against Bruning.
She does indeed. No one but her could have royally f'd up EZ-Pass as she did, mostly because she gave the no-bid contract to political cronies. No one but her could have screwed up the DMV so bad that they re-named the agency (it's now the Motor Vehicle Commission). No one but her could have borrowed our state into oblivion as she did, despite that little state Constitution thing that says the public must vote on such actions. And after she did all that, she then said the air at the World Trade Center site was safe to breathe, which I'm sure was a complete lie. Any Democrat who doesn't beat her by 25% should just commit suicide.
And all of this is pretty irrelvent to a legislative position. They are also some pretty minor gripes. You would seriously rather have Lautenberg (or Menendez) in DC than Christie?
It'd be close. You're right that they would back an opponent. But the CfG tends to get more "targets" than it has money to be effective with. There are several House GOP members on the radar and probably the Virginia (Gilmore over Davis) and Nebraska (Bruning over Johanns) senate seats to deal with. At some point, even the CfG gets practical. They wouldn't pour any money into an NJ primary because they'd realize that it's a waste when NJ isn't winnable--no matter who the nominee is. Plus, the NJ GOP is pretty moderate compared to the rest of the country. Moreover, like I said, I haven't heard any speculation that Whitman is seriously considering this. I think any argument about the merits is academic.
Not for Club for Growth, which is what superdave is alluding to... "Whitman" > "Lautenberg" on name recognition in New Jersey?!?! At worst (for Lautenberg) it's a push and he's the one with a "D" after his name in an overwhelmingly Democratic state.
Minor gripes? Come on. Not sure why you have such a <censored as BigSoccer is a family-friendly website> for Whitman. I didn't even mention her patting down of a black kid in Camden as a publicity stunt. She was a horrible governor. Why should we want someone like that in Washington. She's a George W. Bush Republican. I don't see any difference between them, except Whitman isn't as old as Lautenberg or as Hispanic as Menendez.
You don't remeber that she wrote a book called "It's My Party Too". She's hardly a Bushie. So who would you rather see?
You're right, she might actually be worse. I don't know. I'd be interested in seeing more on Chris Christie (U.S. Attorney for NJ), but I don't know what he believes in other than prosecuting corrupt officials. I don't know enough about anyone else to have any sort of opinion. If there's a NJ version of Ron Paul, then he or she should run.
Here's where that idiot's electoral viability went out the window for ever: "We are very encouraged that the results from our monitoring of air quality and drinking water conditions in both New York and near the Pentagon show that the public in these areas is not being exposed to excessive levels of asbestos or other harmful substances," Whitman said. "Given the scope of the tragedy from last week, I am glad to reassure the people of New York and Washington, D.C. that their air is safe to breath and their water is safe to drink," she added. When she runs for dog catcher in West New York, all her opponent has to do is distribute the above stunning incompetence, though others might see it closer to criminally negligent homicide.
I'm not sure dog cathcer in WNY is for her. I don't think she speaks spanish. Saddle River seems more her speed
Oh it'd be great to see the GOP throw tons of money into the NJ Senate race (again). Because they'd lose (again) and they'd be taking resources away from more competitive states (again). So much of the '08 races depend on whether or not Hillary is the nominee. With her, Dems likely still gain but not nearly as much, maybe +2. With anyone else, they could be as as high as +5. Hillary at the top of the ticket would really harm the Dems in VA and NE where they have a chance to pick off a couple of long-held GOP seats.
Clinton has 26-34%+ lead over Romney et al. in MA and holds a 2-4% lead over all Reeps in VA, where Mark Warner wins the seat if he wants it, absent some Reep shoe-bumping-type scandal.
Some polls: Virginia Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines) Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54 Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57 Minnesota Rasmussen Reports. 9/6. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (March 7 results) Coleman (R) 46 Ciresi (D) 42 Coleman (R) 46 (46) Franken (D) 41 (36)