OK, with the new playoff format, there's a lot of teams to track as we head into the home stretch of the season. I've calculated the 'Magic Number' for DC United to clinch a higher position against each other team. The Magic Number is reduced by the number of points that United earns or the other team loses. (Example, United beats NYRB, that reduces United's number against NYRB by 6 points, 3 won by United, and three dropped by NYRB) When this number reaches 0, it is impossible for the other team to tie or pass United in the standings. Code: Eastern Conference: Team Magic Number New England 22 NYRB 16 KC 10 Columbus 8 Chicago 9 Toronto 3 Western Conference: Team Magic Number Houston 16 FC Dallas 19 Chivas USA 25 Colorado 8 Salt Lake 4 LA 6 To qualify for the playoffs, 5 teams must be eliminated, to qualify for the SS, all 12 teams must be eliminated. The week ahead: Conceivably, two United wins this week would eliminate SLC, LA, and Toronto, and with a little help, either Colorado, and either Chicago or Columbus.
I think you can cut RSL, LA, and TFC from the list now. CLB, COL, CHI, and maybe KC will fight for the last spot.
Realistically, yes. But I'm looking at United systematically eliminating every other MLS team, one by one.
So this is basically a reverse magic number thread, i.e. the points necessary to eliminate other teams from the SS? Any one care to do a magic number thread/post on making the playoffs (y'know that whole cart before the horse concept)?
After 5 teams are eliminated from catching United, then United's in the playoffs. Basically when 2/3 of Colorado, Columbus, or Chicago get eliminated.
No bad juju, I've done this here the last five years, and there's an MLS Cup in there. Though, I purposely held off in starting this thread until September.
How many points are left that are completely within our own control? (e.g. games left X 3) Anything other than that would have to be gifted to us by other teams. Just curious if we control our own destiny here.
Yes, we control our own destiny. We are tied with New England for the SS lead and have a game in hand.
We do control our own destiny for the SS, although by the slimmest of margins against Chivas. They have two games in hand on us, and are down by six points. If we beat them on Thursday, that would give us a solid lead on them. I think even a tie would give us the lead since we won the first game.
Thanks for starting this thread, it is always one of my favorite threads each year, and I was actually thinking about it the other day. Our playoff MN is 8, home team for the Conference Semis 16 and guaranteed home throughout the playoffs 22 since RFK hosts the final.
Updated 7 September 2007. Summary: The United/ChivasUSA tie results in Chivas USA magic number being reduced by three (1 United point earned, and 2 Chivas USA points dropped) every other team's magic number reduced by one. Code: Eastern Conference: Team Magic Number New England 21 NYRB 15 KC 9 Columbus 7 Chicago 8 Toronto 2 Western Conference: Team Magic Number Houston 15 FC Dallas 18 Chivas USA 22 Colorado 7 Salt Lake 3 LA 5 The week ahead: A United win will eliminate two teams (Toronto and Salt Lake City) while a United win and a Galaxy loss or tie will eliminate them. 5 teams must be eliminated to clinch a playoff berth. 5 Eastern Conference teams must be eliminated to clinch a #2 Seed. All Eastern Teams must be eliminated to clinch the conference. All Teams must be eliminated to clinch the Supporters' shield.
Updated 9 September 2007. Summary: A United win over New England takes the Revs down a few notches and puts United in the driver's seat for both the conference title, and the Supporter's Shield. Toronto FC and Real Salt Lake both lost on Saturday, which put United out of reach for both of those clubs. Code: Eastern Conference: Team Magic Number New England 15 NYRB 9 KC 6 Columbus 1 Chicago 5 Toronto -4 <<Can Not Catch DC United - 8 Sept 2007>> Western Conference: Team Magic Number Houston 12 FC Dallas 15 Chivas USA 19 Colorado 1 Salt Lake -3 <<Can Not catch DC United - 8 Sept 2007>> LA 2 The week ahead: A United win will eliminate three teams (Columbus, Colorado, and LA), thus clinching a playoff spot. 5 teams must be eliminated to clinch a playoff berth. 5 Eastern Conference teams must be eliminated to clinch a #2 Seed. All Eastern Teams must be eliminated to clinch the conference. All Teams must be eliminated to clinch the Supporters' shield.
United won the SS last year with 55 pts over 32 games, that's 1.72ppg. Right now we're at 1.92 ppg which would put us at 58 pts over 30 games. We need only 12 of 18 available pts to reach this level. We need at least 3 wins from the final 6 games. Chivas is the real threat right now, as shown in the magic number table. Too bad we choked on goat meat last week ... its excusable - I've had goat meat before and it tastes like ... goat!
They are certainly dangerous, but I believe in all the pre-match dialogue last week we established that they tend to not win very many points off the top teams so far, and that their remaining schedule has a fair number of the top teams. They will have to earn it.
DC has an advantage schedule-wise over all four of the serious SS competitors. While United doesn't have any matches left against any of those teams, they all play each other at least once: Chivas : @Dallas, Houston Dallas : @NE, Houston, Chivas Houston: @Dallas, @Chivas NE : Dallas So all combined those teams will lose between 12 - 16 points (depending on how many draws there are) just for playing each other.
Updated 12 September 2007. Summary: The United win over Salt Lake puts the whole league down another three notches in the magic number department. Columbus, LA, and Colorado can no longer catch United, so a playoff berth is now clinched. Code: Eastern Conference: Team Magic Number New England 12 NYRB 6 KC 3 Columbus -2 <<Can Not Catch DC United - 12 Sept 2007 >> Chicago 2 Toronto -7 <<Can Not Catch DC United - 8 Sept 2007>> Western Conference: Team Magic Number Houston 9 FC Dallas 12 Chivas USA 16 Colorado -2 <<Can Not Catch DC United - 12 Sept 2007>> Salt Lake -5 <<Can Not catch DC United - 8 Sept 2007>> LA -1 <<Can Not Catch DC United - 12 Sept 2007>> The week ahead: United has the weekend off. But KC and Chicago are next in getting eliminated, and may not make it out of the weekend. 5 teams must be eliminated to clinch a playoff berth. << 12 Sept 2007 >> 5 Eastern Conference teams must be eliminated to clinch a #2 Seed. All Eastern Teams must be eliminated to clinch the conference. All Teams must be eliminated to clinch the Supporters' shield.
Yah. It's somewhat odd to see that Houston leads their division but is so much closer to dropping out. I guess that's due to the games in hand the others have on them. I can easily see Chivas taking the West and playing host to whoever wins the derby between the other three C's
A Chivas-Galaxy tie tomorrow, a New England-Dallas tie on Saturday, a Steelers victory over the Bills, and Chivas losing to ColoColoRado, would be the optimal outcome for us: 1. The Galaxy wouldn't win. 2. Chivas would drop 4 points to us, putting them on 12 points to elimination, which is very important, given that we're going into Chicago short-handed. 3. The Steelers are, of course, the greatest football team in the universe. 4. A tie between NE and Dallas would result in 2 lost points for each of them, putting them at 9 points, as we own the tiebreaker over both teams. 5. LA sucks.