Could MLS survive without high attendance?

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Kot Matroskin, Aug 31, 2007.

  1. Kot Matroskin

    Kot Matroskin Member+

    Aug 10, 2007
    SF Bay Area
    I'm not that informed on all the nuts and bolts of running a soccer league, so I was wondering whether a league could survive if the average attendance were not to grow more than what it is now? If it didn't grow, what would it take to make it work?

    Could it survive with 16 teams and 14,000 attendance?

    I would think it could, but obviously, teams might have to scale back their plans for spending on world-class players. How much could they spend on players, and still stay solvent? Would they have to concentrate on up and coming American players instead? Would that actually be better for US soccer?

    Would survival be contingent on having your own SSS? Jersey sponsorship?
     
  2. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, the only teams that have made money so far have been ones that have their own stadium. Even the Crew, who have their own stadium, are only breaking even. The rest of the teams are in debt. Having an SSS is a must with or without increased attendance.
     
  3. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar

    Yes a league can survive. There are leagues that survive with 1,000 average attendance. Go see Iceland or Cyprus for example. Of course those leagues are semi professional, but they survive. The question is how strong do you want your league to be.

    Also, you should post these in MLS general next time
     
  4. Kot Matroskin

    Kot Matroskin Member+

    Aug 10, 2007
    SF Bay Area

    I'm with you, I'd rather see it scale down before just calling it quits. Would the powers that be put up with it, though. I tend to think they would just pull the plug if attendance dipped below, say, 6,000.

    If a mod wants to move it MLS general, that would be fine. I just saw the word "analysis" and posted here.
     
  5. Shopping Cart Man

    Sep 21, 2006
    Jacksonville, FL
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Plug pulling has been far from the league's thoughts since 2005 at the latest. MLS is healthy right now, and they'll really have to ******** something up in order to make average attendance drop to 6,000. I am happy to say that such a situation is only a small possibility at this moment.
     
  6. alexp92

    alexp92 Member

    Jul 5, 2007
    i think it could survive, but i want to see it grow
     
  7. rochester rhinos

    rochester rhinos New Member

    Aug 10, 2007
    under a pipal tree
    I dont think the average mls attendance will be any lower than it was say 2-3 years ago.After the whole new DP thing starts to die down
     
  8. TheLostUniversity

    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Feb 4, 2007
    Greater Boston
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course survival is the prime directive. You can't grow if you don't exist. That said, since the anomaly of the first season the league has stabilized at roughly an average of 15,000 for matches. This average has been maintained even as the number of teams has grown to 13. If in four years we have an 18 team league, with at least this same average, we are doing well. All with their own SSS, ideally.
    Once the numbers of teams is set, then the trick will be to increase per game attendance. At some point, in the not too distant future, an average of roughly 20,000 per match, over a season, is not farfetched.
     
  9. MannieG

    MannieG Member+

    Nov 30, 2006
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Look up the Norwegian Eliteserien. They have stadia with 14,000 capacity.
     
  10. rochester rhinos

    rochester rhinos New Member

    Aug 10, 2007
    under a pipal tree
    18 teams with 20,000 per match is optimistic but anyway you made my day because I though it would only be 16 teams and to hear it is 18 teams means the RHINOS have a good shot of getting promoted just like the Montreal Impact seem to be doing
     
  11. alexp92

    alexp92 Member

    Jul 5, 2007
    thats fine, but i think the mls wants to be bigger than the norwegian league. i get the point that survival is the main goal, but why be average when you can be above average
     
  12. Taoism

    Taoism Member

    Apr 13, 2007
    Winnipeg, MB, Canada
    If (and I think it is a big if) the MLS were content with ~18-30k stadiums, then I think the potential places to put teams becomes very many.

    Just a rule of thumb that I kind of use (ignoring outliers like the Green Bay Packers) is that 5% of the target market should be a safe potential bet for possible attendance. That is, if a city has 600k population, my own guess would be 30k would be a decent large draw. Again, just my own non-verified guestimating. There are plenty of cities across North America that have ~350k+ population that could be exploited.

    Indeed if the MLS were OK with 18-30k stadiums, many cities would potentially support multiple teams (yay for derbys!).

    Just some random musings....

    Cheers!
     
  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Well, honestly that is great for Norway. They have an excellent league considering the size of the country, which is good evidence that the sport is strong and healthy and will be there for a long time.

    But the US long term has to think on a lot larger scale. The US is something like 60 times bigger than Norway, so we can afford to be more ambitious.
     
  14. MannieG

    MannieG Member+

    Nov 30, 2006
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hey, I want the league to grow just as much as the next hincha...but that wasn't the topic of this thread...
     
  15. tguy24

    tguy24 Member

    Nov 26, 2005
    Don't worry MLS isn't going to stop expanding until they are in every major North american market. their will be 20 teams in the league in about 6 years for sure and many more after that.
     
  16. NebraskaAddick

    Aug 26, 2005
    Omaha, NE
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have long preferred a single table, but say if the league gets teams in enough cities to make it over 30, barring relegation/promotion that I don't think the owners would ever agree to, then the divisions would make a lot more sense than they do now. And you'd have to actually be a good team to make the playoffs.

    As for the question of this thread, if FC Dallas are making a profit, which I read they were, and with the attendance they're getting, then yes, MLS can do well at their current rate, providing teams have their own stadiums.

    Adding stars to the rosters is a calculated risk, like if they bring attendance numbers and merchandise sales up like they think it will, then it pays for itself.
     

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