(Cross-posted to Climbing the Ladder) The new FIFA rankings are out for November. Now that the qualifying groups are known, I'll only include 32 teams that could potentially qualify. Like for instance, if 3 of the top 13 UEFA teams in the FIFA rankings are in the same group, then I would exclude the lowest ranked one. However, that didn't occur this month. Teams listed here will always be the best ones in the rankings that could qualify, not the ones that lead the standings. Next month's FIFA rankings will be very important. It's the first month of the three that get locked into place for the rankings half of the formula. It looks like England's disappoint at not getting into Euro 2008 could have further effects. They've slipped in the FIFA rankings, and will out on points in the at the tournament as well. If the other teams stay ahead of them, then they possibly could miss out on a World Cup seed. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: Total WC FIFA Change 1 Brazil 60.3 29.3 31 0.0 2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28 0.0 3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30 0.0 4 Spain 54.3 25.3 29 2.0 5 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32 0.0 5 France 49.3 23.3 26 -3.0 7 England 47.3 26.3 21 -1.0 7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 0.0 9 Netherlands 38.7 14.7 24 -2.0 10 Mexico 37.3 19.3 18 0.0 11 Czech 33.0 6.0 27 3.0 12 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23 0.0 13 USA 28.7 13.7 15 0.0 14 Turkey 27.0 10.0 17 N/A 15 Paraguay 24.7 11.7 13 2.0 16 Japan 22.8 13.3 9.5 -0.5 17 Greece 22.0 0.0 22 3.0 18 South Korea 20.7 15.7 5 0.0 19 Romania 20.0 0.0 20 -1.0 20 Scotland 19.0 0.0 19 -1.0 21 Nigeria 16.7 2.7 14 0.0 22 Colombia 16.0 0.0 16 4.0 23 Senegal 15.7 8.7 7 0.0 24 Australia 15.3 11.3 4 1.5 25 Cameroon 15.0 3.0 12 -1.0 26 Cote d'Ivoire 14.0 6.0 8 0.0 27 Uruguay 13.7 2.7 11 -5.0 28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 0.0 29 Saudi Arabia 10.0 8.0 2 -0.5 30 Guinea 9.5 0.0 9.5 0.5 31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 0.0 32 Honduras 3.0 0.0 3 N/A Honduras and Turkey are in the formula this month in place of Canada and Russia. Thanks to eldiablito and Edgar for their work on this in previous months. FAQ Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings? Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings. Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3 Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3 Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years. How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. The 16 teams that didn't make it out of the group stage are ranked (Points, GD, GF). The bottom 8 get 8 points each. The top 8 get 9 points each. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. If two or more teams have the same FIFA ranking, the points are not divided among them. Instead, the one shown first in the FIFA rankings gets the most points and so on. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 13 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 13 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. 13.0-UEFA 6.0-CAF (5+host) 4.5-AFC 4.5-CONMEBOL 3.5-CONCACAF 0.5-OFC Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like they did in 2002. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994. Previous Editions July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007
Mock Draw (England and Portugal are currently tied for the final seed. I decided to use England because their World Cup performance, aka the half of the formula that is set in stone, is higher) Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Croatia, Czech, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland, Turkey Pot 3: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay Pot 4: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Colombia, Mexico Group B: Brazil, Greece, Cote d'Ivoire, USA Group C: France, Romania, Senegal, Japan Group D: Spain, Portugal, Guinea, Honduras Group E: Argentina, Czech, Cameroon, Australia Group F: Italy, Scotland, Uruguay, Iran Group G: Germany, Turkey, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia Group H: England, Netherlands, Paraguay, Korea Republic
Missing the Euro really is going to hurt England. If either the Netherlands or Portugal goes deep into the Euro finals in summer 2008, England might be out of a seed, because of its drop in the FIFA rankings. I don't think it's possible for USA to get a seed. The max the US can finish with is 45.667 and that would only happen if the U.S. was ranked #1 next month. Some tough groups in that draw. I'd much rather be the Pot 4 team in Group B than in Group H.
The Euro Draw didn't do England any favors, either. The Netherlands and Portugal both ended up in different groups, while Croatia ended up in Group B with beatable Austria and Poland (and Germany). There are no internationals in December featuring major teams, so the November projection shouldn't change much. England is going to be in the Top 7 for the first set of locked rankings, but could easily be surpassed next summer after the Euro.
I think we had concluded going into this summer that it was going to be necessary to do something really ridiculous like win Copa America to have any shot at all of getting a seed. It's not just the ranking we would need, but the infeasability of getting it (due in part to the brokenness of the FIFA ranking system).