Via my Blog: http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/2012-mls-projected-standings-based-on.html Traditionally at the beginning of the Major League Soccer season I produce a statistical guide/yearbook, You can download a free copy of the 2011 MLS Yearbook Free Download at http://issuu.com/enb17/docs/2011mls .This year instead of just providing statistical data I've decided to try use the data and produce projections for the upcoming 2012 season. The idea of statistical player projection have been around for awhile, I first came across it, in Bill James 1984 Baseball Abstract and because the amount of betting in soccer result projection are also common. Although I think this is the first case of combining statistical player projections with results expectations and trying to come up with realistic statistical expectation for the season. This material can be useful in picking players for Fantasy Games as well as potentially improving your odds on a bet but personally I think it's the ground work in developing a "Moneyball" theory for Soccer. Since I'm not a mathematician or know the exact terminology for all formulas I will term the idea as Statistical Expectations. Which basically means what a team should expect from a player based on the players own historical performance, historical trends in the league and finally how the club will use the player for the upcoming season. Although in many ways Soccer is difficult to analyse statistically there is basic data which you can figure out a realistic projected range. The most straight forward is minutes played as in a game a team is expected to play 990 minutes (11 players playing 90 minutes). Than using historical data we can figure the average of goals, shots on target, fouls, yellow and red cards (as well as more detail stats) for those games which interestingly tends to be more stable in soccer than any other sports. These are some of the statistical trends for the MLS that I used in this work: Major League Soccer Statistical History 1996-2011 - Home Advantage - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-league-soccer-statistical-history.html Major League Soccer Statistical History 1996-2011 - Goals per Game - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-league-soccer-statistical-history_08.html Major League Soccer Statistical History 1996-2011 - Type of Goals Percentage - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-league-soccer-statistical-history_7480.html Major League Soccer Statistical History 1996-2011 - Assists and Shots on Goal - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-league-soccer-statistical-history_6056.html Major League Soccer Statistical History 1996-2011 - Disciplinary - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-league-soccer-statistical-history_3840.html I will be posting data on individual MLS clubs with their statistical expectation for the upcoming 2012 season and will also breakdown in more detail how I came up with these results. I think its best to start off with projected standing for the upcoming season. This is the result that I'm least confidant about as I'm still not sure if projected player stats relate directly to wins, draws, and losses although it always interesting to post results and than later on see what happens. So here is my 2012 MLS Projected Standings based on Statistical Expectations Club Overall Conference Games Wins Draws Losses GF GA Points Los Angeles 1st 1st 34 19 7 8 59 39 64 Salt Lake 2nd 2nd 34 16 9 9 45 35 57 New York 3rd 1st 34 16 8 10 53 45 56 DC United 4th 2nd 34 15 9 10 49 41 54 Seattle 5th 3rd 34 15 9 10 47 41 54 Chicago 6th 3rd 34 14 10 10 50 45 52 Dallas 7th 4th 34 14 9 11 50 41 51 Colorado 8th 5th 34 13 11 10 46 41 50 Houston 9th 6th 34 12 11 11 45 41 47 Columbus 10th 4th 34 13 7 14 45 45 46 San Jose 11th 7th 34 11 10 13 48 49 43 Vancouver 12th 8th 34 11 9 14 45 49 42 Kansas City 13th 5th 34 10 11 13 39 42 41 Portland 14th 9th 34 11 8 15 43 49 41 Philadelphia 15th 6th 34 10 10 14 38 47 40 Toronto 16th 7th 34 10 7 17 38 51 37 Chivas USA 17th 10th 34 9 9 16 40 49 36 New England 18th 8th 34 8 12 14 34 46 36 Montreal 19th 9th 34 8 10 16 33 51 34
Each MLS Clubs 2012 Projected Statistics based on Statistical Expectations Colorado Rapids - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/colorado-rapids-projected-2012-player.html Chicago Fire - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/chicago-fire-projected-2012-player.html Chivas USA - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/chivas-usa-stat-projection-17th-9-9-16.html Columbus Crew - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/columbus-crew-projected-2012-player.html DC United - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/dc-united-projected-2012-player.html FC Dallas - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/fc-dallas-projected-2012-player.html Houston Dynamo - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/houston-dynamo-projected-2012-player_716.html Los Angeles Galaxy - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/los-angeles-galaxy-projected-2012.html Montreal Impact - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/montreal-impact-projected-2012-player.html New England Revolution - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/new-england-revolution-projected-2012.html New York Red Bulls - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/new-york-red-bulls-projected-2012.html Philadelphia Union - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/philadelphia-union-projected-2012.html Portland Timbers - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/portland-timbers-projected-2012-player.html Real Salt Lake - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/real-salt-lake-projected-2012-player.html San Jose Earthquakes - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/san-jose-earthquakes-projected-2012.html Seattle Sounders - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/seattle-sounders-projected-2012-player.html Sporting Kansas City - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/sporting-kansas-city-projected-2012.html Toronto FC - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/toronto-fc-projected-2012-player.html Vancouver Whitecaps - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/vancouver-whitecaps-projected-2012.html
Yearly Historical Averages for Current Major League Soccer Players - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/yearly-historical-averages-for-current.html 2011 Stats for New Players to Major League Soccer - http://enbsports.blogspot.com/2012/03/2011-stats-for-new-players-to-major.html
This looks to be some great info, thanks! It often amuses me how much the pushback against statistics in soccer resembles the pushback against more detailed statistical analysis in baseball from a couple decades ago. Statistical analysis will never completely replace the manual aspect, and it can never take away the magic of the game itself. It is solely a way to help us a fans, and also the clubs and scouts, understand the game in a new and better way.