Seems like the numbers crowd might like to discuss the expansion draft. As a starting point, here are the results of the November 1997 draft. Rules were slightly different from the upcoming draft: -- Teams were allowed to protect 10 players -- Project-40's were exempt (there weren't many of them yet) -- Teams lost at most 3 players -- After losing a player, each team was allowed to add one to their protected list -- Fire had picks 1,3,5 ...; Fusion has 2,4,6, ... CHICAGO FIRE 1, D Danny Pena (Los Angeles); 2, GK Kevin Hartman (Los Angeles); 3, M Manuel Lagos (MetroStars); 4, F/M Jason Farrell (Columbus); 5, M Jorge Salcedo (Columbus); 6, GK Zach Thornton (MetroStars); 7, D Francis Okaroh (New England); 8, M/D Diego Gutierrez (Kansas City); 9, D Andrew Lewis (MetroStars); 10, D Brian Bates (Colorado); 11, F A.J. Wood (Columbus); 12, F Steve Patterson (Colorado). MIAMI FUSION 1, D David Vaudreuil (D.C. United); 2, M John Maessner (D.C. United); 3, M Kris Kelderman (D.C. United); 4, D Joey Martinez (Dallas); 5, GK Jeff Cassar (Dallas); 6, M Nelson Vargas (Tampa Bay); 7, D Cle Kooiman (Tampa Bay); 8, D Ramiro Corrales (San Jose); 9, D Matt Kmosko (Colorado); 10, GK Scott Budnick (Tampa Bay); 11, D Wade Webber (Dallas); 12, F Brian Taylor (Los Angeles). Notes 1. The draft began with a run on DC and LA players. Even though LA is very deep again, I expect the draft picks to be more balanced this time. 2. Even though teams could only protect 10, there was very little obvious quality. Danny Pena was the only established standout. Chicago's selections of Hartman and Thornton are a testament to some good scouting. Both were backup keepers who hadn't played much. Also, their choices of Diego Gutierrez and Manny Lagos were major gambles -- Gutierrez (who helped Chicago a lot) had missed the entire 1997 season with a knee injury, while Lagos (who didn't really contribute in Chicago) had been fighting injuries, too. 3. Chicago followed its excellent selections with a couple of franchise-building trades. Chris Armas arrived (with Jorge Campos) in exchange for Hartman and Pena. Jesse Marsch arrived in exchange for A.J. Wood and a 2nd-round pick (became Carey Talley). The Moral: Go (Fairly) Young Chicago came away with a collection of inexperienced players in their mid-20's, including Armas, Marsch, Thornton, and Gutierrez. This group did a lot to build a consistent winner. Miami's choices tended to be quite a bit older, and none of them really panned out. Perhaps the best choice was a young one: Jeff Cassar, who held down the starting keeper job until Nick Rimando arrived. Top pick Vaudreuil was already 31, and he was traded mid-1998 for 23-year-old Tyrone Marshall, who did end up becoming a solid utility player. Perhaps Corrales (who was 21) was too young, though. After a few months, they gave up on him, sending him to the MetroStars for Carlos Parra.
Is the league younger on the whole than it was in 1997? I'm just askin' because it seems that way, whether it is or not. If it is, there might be more young guys available.
I don't have the numbers handy, but you're certainly right that there are a lot more young players in the league now. On the flip-side, there may be some very tempting veterans in this expansion draft, too ... possibly, guys like Agoos, Cobi, Fraser, Llamosa, Joe-Max, Pareja, and Stewart. So the choice between younger and older players isn't an obvious one. Thinking a bit more about this subject, the Fire's success clearly wasn't solely a result of their remarkable ability to identify promising young talent. Peter Nowak, Lubos Kubik, and the other veterans played an important role, too. In part, however, their usefulness depended on the fact that they were still among the best players in the league ... I doubt that'll be true of any veterans in this year's expansion draft.
On some other boards, there's a bit of discussion about whether teams will be forced to protect Project-40's or Development Players. The posted MLS rules appear to suggest that they won't. If teams are allowed to protect 12 of their 18 squad members, then it appears that most teams will feel virtually no impact from the expansion draft. To examine the possible impact, I broke down each team's senior roster at the end of last season (below, corrections welcome). If there had been an expansion draft, each expansion team could've gotten about 6 or 7 players who are currently in the league. Most of those players, however, had no future with their 2003 team. In some cases, existing teams would've been grateful to off-load whoever they lost. West 5. Burn Still with Team (9) Davis, Kreis, Nhleko, Johnson, Pareja, Rhine, Gbandi, O'Brien, Cassar Off-Loaded (4) Bonseu, S. Thomas, Vaca, Hendrickson Not Retained (5) Deering, Curtis, Dunseth, Glinton, Morrow Draft Impact: Loss of rights to Hendrickson, which were traded for a low future draft pick. 4. Galaxy Still with Team (13) Ruiz, A. Moreno, C. Jones, Albright, Victorine, Califf, Hong, Hartman, Broome, Marshall, Popik, Suarez, Vagenas Off-Loaded (1) Elliott Not Retained (4) Lalas, Cienfuegos, Martinez, Serna Draft Impact: Loss of one player ... perhaps Hong, who is unwanted and high-priced 3. Rapids Still with Team (11) Spencer, Crawford, Chung, Henderson, Roberts, Kotschau, Mastroeni, Cannon, Vallow, Powell, J.Stewart Off-Loaded (3) Fraser, Hart, Garlick Not Retained (4) Carrieri, Schmidt, Blake, Sleeth Draft Impact: Loss of one player ... perhaps Hart (who was traded for a low pick), J.Stewart, or Powell 2. Wizards Still with Team (13) Preki, Simutenkov, Klein, Conrad, Gomez, Arnaud, Wolff, Zavagnin, Zotinca, Garcia, Gutierrez, Meola, Oshoniyi Off-Loaded (2) Quill, Talley Not Retained (3) Armstrong, Harris, Vazquez Draft Impact Loss of two players ... perhaps Oshoniyi and Quill/Talley 1. Earthquakes Still with Team (16) Donovan, Mullan, Ching, DeRosario, Dunivant, Mulrooney, Agoos, Ekelund, Russell, Corrales, Robinson, Dayak, Onstad, Roner, Waibel, Conway Off-Loaded (1) Lagos Not Retained (1) Faria Draft Impact Loss of three players ... guessing Russell, Lagos, Conway East 5. Crew Still with Team (9) Buddle, Paule, Cunningham, Martino, Denton, Hejduk, Maisonneuve, Busch, Oughton Off-Loaded (1) Walsh Not Retained (9) McBride, West, Garcia, Pineda Chacon, Walsh, Clark, McCarty, Presthus, Mark Williams Draft Impact None 4. DC United Still with Team (12) Olsen, Kovalenko, Quintanilla, Petke, Convey, Quaranta, E. Stewart, Nelsen, Namoff, Prideaux, Rimando, Martins Appeared, Cut in 04 (2) Cerritos, Warren Off-Loaded (1) Reyes Not Retained (4) Etcheverry, Stoitchkov, Ivanov, Alegria Draft Impact Loss of two players ... guessing Quintanilla and rights to Reyes, which were traded for a low pick 3. MetroStars Still with Team (8) Guevara, Lisi, Wolyniec, Ziadie, Pope, Leitch, Regan, Walker Off-Loaded (2) J. Moreno, Jolley Not Retained (9) Mathis, Juskowiak, R. Williams, Addo, Bartolomeu, DiGiamarino, Forchetti, Galvan, Grafer Draft Impact None 2. Revs Still with Team (14) Twellman, Noonan, Kamler, J-M. Moore, Ralston, Cancela, Heaps, Franchino, Joseph, Kante, A. Brown, Llamosa, Pierce, Reis Off-Loaded During 04 (1) C. Brown Not Retained (3) Fabbro, Cullen, Jason Moore Draft Impact Loss of two players, guessing Chris Brown, Joe-Max 1. Fire Still with Team (13) Razov, Ralph, Beasley, A. Williams, Armas, Gray, Perez, Selolwane, Whitfield, CJ Brown, Curtin, Ring, Marsch Not Retained (5) Bocanegra, Thornton, Bolanos, Futagaki, Spiteri Draft Impact Loss of one player, guessing Selolwane
good list. I'll try double checking the list by team. Players lost after November like Bocanegra, Thornton that were OOC may have been protected, especially thornton who i think CHI thought was returning. Plus with Bocanegra, McBride, Mathis, the team may not have gotten the allocation if they were drafted away. CHI list matches my roster. Probably would have protected thornton, maybe bocanegra Probably would lose 1 more than Selowane. CLB roster matches. McBride and West may have been protected, still under 12. DC list matches my roster. MET haven't got this roster compiled. Seems right, Mathis probably protected. Still no impact. COL yet to compile. the 3 off loaded players, some may have been protected. agree loss of 1. DAL I think Behncke not Johnson was on senior roster (johnson still is p40). Glinton was cut during this season. May have lost him. KC I think Armstrong made it into the start of this season (or very close) before being cut. Only 1 SI can be exposed (haven't accounted this into the previous teams). So maybe 1 more exposed. LA again now considering SI's. Either elliot or serna would have to be protected. Not sure how the known retirements like cienfuegos come into play. would probably protect cienfuegos for his allocation? SJ my roster matches. So to be more clear, we need to consider retirement, OOC players from the team's perspective at the end of the season. Do they think the player will return. Do they need to protect an allocatoin? Also the protecting 2/3 SI rule comes into play. Players traded were not necessarily players not wanted but were sometimes cap casualties or exchanged for something of value. Some of them may have been protected. double checking, armstrong cut 4/27/2004 (For rasovic). Glinton 4/29/2004 (for Reyes).
Thanks for doing the double-check. Regarding the players who left, I believe that the writing was already on the wall for most of them, even for Glinton and Armstrong. Still, the point about protecting an allocation is an important one, which I hadn't considered. My read is that it would not have affected the Wizards, but the Galaxy and Fire would each have lost an adequate player. So expansion teams might get 7 or 8 guys who would otherwise be in MLS. Compared with an existing team (keeps its favorite 12 plus its non-roster players), that arrangement is awfully miserly.
I don't have the numbers on me, but yeah, there's two ways that the league is younger now than it was in 1997/8. First of all, the average age has declined, as of 2003, by about a year, after being pretty steady up through 2001. Second, the ages are more spread out - we're much more likely to see a 20 year old, but also to see a 32 year old. So, anyway, we definitely ought to see a whole lot more young guys available in this draft, although it will be significantly influenced by what MLS chooses to do with P-40's and DP's.
Agreed, but what's the solution? Do you make developmental players draft-eligible, and start shuttling a group of guys who make 10000/year around the country? Do you make more full rostered players available, and start stripping a team of guys who made significant impacts to their team? Do you make teenage P-40's eligible? Anyway, what reason is there for the league not to be miserly? The Burn turned an absolutely wretched team from 2003 into a decent, if not exceptional squad, using only a few discovery picks, a trade, and an allocation. There's no reason to think that the expansion won't be able to field a similar team, with the tools at their disposal.
Seems like most development players would be happy to get the chance at making a full roster, especially since many of them won't even be eligible for DEV status next year. Absolutely ... if P-40s go into the SuperDraft, why should the expansion draft be any different? Disagree -- there's an enormous disparity between an expansion team's projected draft acquisitions and the 2003 Burn players who were retained or traded. Where would an expansion team get its Eddie Johnson, Ronnie O'Brien, or Jason Kreis?
Apparently, Fire GM Peter Wilt commented that some P-40's will move to full roster status prior to the expansion draft. Based on how this worked last year, it appears that this will affect a lot of players. My guess: Chi Grad: Countess (age, overpaid), Jaqua (age, playing time (PT)) Stay: Capano Clb Grad: Akwari (age, PT), Marshall (PT) Stay: Barclay Col Grad: Lewis (age), Trembly (age) Dal Grad: Johnson (PT) Stay: Goodson (a bit old, but in first year), Stone DC Grad: Carroll (age, PT), Eskandarian (age, PT), Stokes (age), Thompson (age) Stay: Adu (due to salary) KC Grad: Burciaga (age, PT) LA Grad: Grabavoy (PT) Stay: Gardner (age is borderline, but first year), Gonzalez Met Grad: Gaven (PT) Stay: Bradley NE Grad: Dempsey (PT) SJ Grad: Cochrane (PT) Stay: Alvarez, Cronin By my count, 16 players are probably in their last P-40 season, of which 11 play frequently. If this is indeed how things work out, an additional 5 or 6 MLS-caliber players would be available in the expansion draft (a much more reasonable total, IMO).
I'll post my info from another thread here, some numbers applied and it may be useful to look at over in the MLS forums (% players on team at 1 season, 2 season, % of starters). On the opening day roster, Chicago had Armas, Chris S1P07Y96 (trade) Bates, Brian I4P02Y96 (exp draft) Brown, C.J. S1P01Y98 (supplemental draft) Gramenz, Don S2P01Y98 (supplemental draft) Gutierrez, Diego R2P05Y96 (exp draft) Holocher, Paul S2P04Y98 (supplemental draft) Klopas, Frank (trade) Kotschau, Rich R1P02Y98 (college draft) Lagos, Manuel (Manny) (exp draft) Lewis, Andrew R3P05Y97 (exp draft) Marsch, Jesse R3P01Y96 (trade) Okaroh, Francis (exp draft) Salcedo, Jorge I3P04Y96 (exp draft) Thornton, Zach I7P09Y96 (exp draft) Wilson, Brad I13P04Y96 (waiver claim) Campos, Jorge (trade) Kosecki, Roman (allocation) Kubik, Lubos (allocation) Nowak, Peter (Piotr) (allocation) Podbrozny, Jerzy (allocation) Wolff, Josh P11Y98 (assigned p40) there expansion draft list was: Pena, Danny S1P01Y97 (traded for Armas and Campos, also cost allocation (likely Hermosillo)) Hartman, Kevin R3P09Y97 (same trade as Pena) Lagos, Manuel (Manny) (made team) Farrell, Jason S2P03Y97 (traded Klopas) Salcedo, Jorge I3P04Y96 (made team) Thornton, Zach I7P09Y96 (made team) Okaroh, Francis (made team) Gutierrez, Diego R2P05Y96 (made team) Lewis, Andrew R3P05Y97 (made team) Bates, Brian I4P02Y96 (made team) Wood, A.J. I5P09Y96 (traded with pick (becomes Talley) for Marsch and fut consid -> (becomes Whitfield and Greg Sutton picks) Patterson, Steve (waived) there opening day starting lineup/subs were:Zach Thornton, Lubos Kubik, Francis Okaroh, Andrew Lewis, Jorge Salcedo, Frank Klopas (Zak Ibsen 66), Rich Kotschau, Chris Armas, Peter Nowak, Roman Kosecki (Jesse Marsch 83), Tony Kuhn (Ante Razov 74) so I count Thornton (cause Campos wasn't available), Okaroh, Lewis, and Salcedo as the only starters. looking at the stats for the year, the 11 most starts went to Razov, Kosecki, Podbrozny, Nowak, Kubik, Armas, Kotschau, Marsch, Brown, Okaroh, Thornton. So Thornton (cause Campos was gone for WC98) and Okaroh were the only expansion draft players on this list. Looking at the next years roster on opening day: Armas, Chris S1P07Y96 Brown, C.J. S1P01Y98 Gutierrez, Diego R2P05Y96 Keller, Josh R1P07Y98 Klopas, Frank Kotschau, Rich R1P02Y98 Lagos, Manuel (Manny) Lewis, Andrew R3P05Y97 Marsch, Jesse R3P01Y96 Okaroh, Francis Razov, Ante R3P07Y96 Soehn, Tom I2P03Y96 Sutton, Greg R2P11Y99 Thornton, Zach I7P09Y96 Wolff, Josh P11Y98 Kosecki, Roman Kubik, Lubos Nowak, Peter (Piotr) Podbrozny, Jerzy Kuhn, Tony Zaun, Jeff I4P09Y96 Campos, Jorge (not activated) Kovalenko, Dema P7Y99 I count 5 from the expansion draft around the next season (Gutierrez, Lagos, Lewis, Okaroh, Thornton)
I have less polished info for Miami but: exp draft: Vaudreuil, David S2P07Y96 Maessner, John Kelderman, Kris I8P10Y96 Martinez, Joey S2P10Y97 Cassar, Jeff R1P08Y96 Vargas, Nelson I12P07Y96 Kooiman, Cle Corrales, Ramiro I9P01Y96 Kmosko, Matt I7P02Y96 Budnik, Scott I14P07Y96 Webber, Wade S1P02Y97 Taylor, Brian S1P09Y97 98 opening roster Budnik, Scott I14P07Y96 exp_draft Cassar, Jeff R1P08Y96 exp_draft Corrales, Ramiro I9P01Y96 exp_draft Cullen, Leo R1P01Y98 college_draft Gutierrez, Henry allocation Kelderman, Kris I8P10Y96 exp_draft Kmosko, Matt I7P02Y96 exp_draft Kooiman, Cle exp_draft Maessner, John exp_draft Martinez, Joey S2P10Y97 exp_draft Mastroeni, Pablo R2P01Y98 college_draft Stebbins, Dan S1P04Y97 allocation Sullivan, Chris trade Taylor, Brian S1P09Y97 exp_draft Vargas, Nelson I12P07Y96 exp_draft Vaudreuil, David S2P07Y96 exp_draft Webber, Wade S1P02Y97 exp_draft Herrera, Marcelo allocation Serna, Diego allocation Tamashiro, Jerry allocation Valderrama, Carlos trade Kozic, Alen P5Y98 p40assigned Napoleon, Matt P7Y98 p40assigned Don't think there were any players lost to trades. Sullivan and Valderrama were acquired by trades 3rd round supplemental and (1st round supplemental & allocation). Miami traded away their other picks for future picks. I don't have the roster for one year later ready but several were traded away. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Miami's opening day lineup: Jeff Cassar, Leo Cullen, Wade Webber, Cle Kooiman, Matt Kmosko, Henry Gutierrez (David Vaudreuil 66), Diego Serna (Kris Kelderman 79), John Maessner, Marcelo Herrera, Carlos Valderrama, Dan Stebbins. (haven't doubled checked that some of these allocations may have been discoveries). Miami's 11 most popular starters: Serna, Gutierrez, Cullen, Kmosko, Webber, Cassar, Valderrama, Mastroeni, Herrerra, Parra, and a tie McLaren & Maessner. Players for Miami who joined after playing for another team (Tyrone Marshal, Parra, Boyce, Winner, Knowles. Players who went on to play for another team in 98 (Corrales & Vaudreuil).
Here are my guesses for protected/unprotected, later I'll do a mock draft. Chicago: protected: Ralph, Williams, Mapp, Razov, Jaqua, Armas, Gray, Brown, Curtin, Ring, Herron, Boucicaut available: Buete, Selolwane, Pause, Perez, Whitfield, Thornton, grads - Countess (not sure Pause or Gray or Boucicaut, free agents?) developmental: Griffin (this demotion may help protect him), Pickens, Capano, Clanton Columbus: protected: Buddle, Busch, Fraser (?retire), Hejduk, Martino, Sanneh, Scott, Wingert, Marshall (grad), Akwari (grad), Oughton, Paule available: Cunningham, Denton, Elliot (?contract size), Herdsman, Jordan, Lagos (repeat exp draftee?), Maisonneuve (wonder about health, contract), Testo (surprised he hasn't had more PT) developmental: Ritch (senior dev), Sutton, Szetela, Barclay (will be 22) DC: protected: Gros, Kovalenko, Nelsen (unless gone free agent), Olsen, Petke, Quaranta (gotta play him first!), Perkins, Carroll (grad), Eskandarian (grad), Gomez, Moreno, Quintanilla available: Rimando (though might save for Chivas trade), Stewart (maybe due to contract but somehow I'll think they'll protect him to save hard feelings and cause noone would take him anyway so maybe Petke instead though they're short on D depth, one of the Q's maybe but they haven't played in so long), Ara, Hendrickson, Lawson, Martins (again not playing), Namoff, Prideaux, Stokes (grad), Thompson (grad) developmental: Adu, Kuffour, MET: protected: Gaven (though may stay p40 due to age), Clark, Guevera, Magee, Parke, Pope, Wolyniec, Walker, Wells, Glen, Taylor, Brenes available: Galvan Rey (contract terminated), Bonseu, Vaca, Leitch, Lisi, Regan, Ziade developmental: Gilberto, Arena (sen dev), stammler (sen dev - not sure if sen dev will make players protected), Bradley, NE: protected: Joseph, Kamler (versatile), Noonan, Pierce (?free agent), Ralston, Twellman, Brown (unless career over), Reis, Dempsey (grad), Brillant, Cancela, John available: Howey (though Nichol's buddy - real problem of limit 1 SI unprotected here, Cancela is out of favor, John seems average), Baker (I think an above exception will allow him to be protected), Franchino (captain?, I wouldn't protect him but NE probably will), Heaps (now on bench), Leonard, Llamosa (must retire or protected), Moore (contract size, but again ? hard feelings), developmental: Belleh, Dorman, Thomspon (sen dev), Vercollone, Singer, NE may have the biggest problem protecting the players they should vs the one they "have to". May leave Brown (or Reis), Kamler, Pierce, Brillant, and if possilbe another SI (by waiving?/trading) unprotected.
Thx for all the info, swed ... looks like I repped you too recently, though. A few comments: -- Since Armas and Campos were acquired in the aftermath of the 1998 Expansion Draft, it seems fair to count them as expansion acquisitions. -- Comment on the league's parity, now and then: in 1998, the first three Fusion picks were all DC United players; the first three Fire picks were all Galaxy players. In the 2004 Draft, neither team is likely to have a repeat victim in its top three. -- Do you know for certain that teams will be allowed to cut players before the expansion draft? Is this true even in the case of multi-year contracts like Galvan Rey's? Points where our projections don't match: Fire keep: Thornton (or else they would've traded him already) drop: Gray, Marsch Among teams in the East, I found this the hardest one to project. It came down to cutting two of Boucicaut, Brown, Gray, Jaqua, and Marsch (you overlooked him, right?). In the end, I figured that Gray hasn't developed enough and Marsch hasn't been healthy enough. Crew keep: Elliott (has been a key player this year) drop: Scott DC keep: Namoff, Rimando drop: Perkins (why is BigSoccer so keen on him?), Quintanilla Would there be a Nelsen allocation if he goes? Would that justify protecting him? If not, keeping Hendrickson would seem natural. Met (Assuming they can drop Galvan Rey) keep: Lisi drop: Wells -- I've seen a report that Vaca may leave for Chile. -- Why is Gilberto developmental? Revs keep: Baker (don't understand your comment on him), Franchino drop: Brilliant (SI next year, right? Especially if Revs miss playoffs, Nicol will bring in a better foreigner), Kamler (old, mediocre)
They tried, but it was at the eleventh hour. They couldn't get a deal done. Right now they've got four keepers and Ring is out of contract at year's end. It'll be interesting to see what they do with them.
I read that Galvan Rey's contract had an option out at the end of the season for MLS. I doubt players will be waived before the draft but don't know. The reason I didn't count Armas/Campos is cause SLC fans were talking about how many players directly from the draft or from the draft pool will be starting/rostered the next year. If you check the SLC forum you can see where this came up. I think Chivas might take the best available players/values and then might trade some to make the players fit their ideal team charateristics/appeal (though after hiring Rongen who knows - either they'll be less strict than people think or maybe more so to make up for this "betrayal (laopinion.com"). How out-of-contract players will be handled is a tough question. In late 97 I'd guess most players were 2 years into 4 year deals. I have a lot of the contract info but am not ready to "guess" who's going to be out-of-contract.
I hadn't looked at any list first but it seems like we agree a lot. Chicago is tough. There are players with possibly larger contracts like Elliot that might be tough calls for teams. Seeing how little Scott has played I might agree (again projection vs. recommendation). My comment on Baker was that they'll have one of the 12 I listed retire like Brown or leave (Pierce Out of contract?). Gilberto is developmental cause of age. Letting Wells go would be a waste (never got a chance) but Walker might be set for some years there. The big deal about Perkins is he's cheap (Rimando probably makes several times) and was starting for a while on developmental pay. I think Chivas might want Rimando (does Rongen like him?). But again DC might be better to trade him. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a small Nelsen allocation (if Bocanegra deserved one there isn't much difference except citizen vs SI - does Nelsen have a GC!!!). With Clark and Guevera (and Gilberto) MET have a crowded midfield (strikers too, they're like the Real Madrid of MLS in neglecting depth on D). I've never seen Quintanilla play but if they expose him he'll probably be picked. I almost want to do 2 lists, one as GM myself (no hard feelings Joe-Max, Ernie, and Hong) and one as a "projection". More I think about it Franchino's captaincy might save him (I think NE could do better, he's been beaten most times I've watched them).
I'm pretty sure I saw a press release saying Gilberto is DEV though it's in that gap of 6 months ago (webarchive.org update) and the mlsnet switchover. He's on loan so maybe that's how the salary is justified. I think the loan was just extended 2 years. He's a DEV/TI like Stephenson in KC, Dorman in NE, and Kuffour in DC. Supposedly Nunez is a JI (mlsnet press release this year at signing) though mlsnet now lists him as no category. He counts developmental but I'm not sure if towards the league wide 20 TI maximum. He might have a green card now. Him and Szetela are non-p40s that I think might make more than the developmental limit.
True ... I also agree with your view that Franchino isn't worth protecting, even though I think it'll happen. Over the weekend, I'll try to bring in my projections for the west, so that we can swap notes on them, too. ... but this was mainly a stopgap situation, since Rimando was so badly out of form. It was a pleasant surprise that Perkins beat out Warren and didn't embarrass himself, but I don't think his performance suggested he'd become a genuine first-choice starter. It'll be interesting to track what happens with keepers. At the very least, competent Jon Conway/Scott Vallow types will be available. With that as the baseline, other teams may be more willing to let their own keepers loose. Even if the Metros think Zach Wells has a big future, they might expect him to pass under the Expansion Draft radar.
There is no way the Fire will leave Marsch unprotected. As for Thornton, if they could've traded him before the deadline they probably would have. I would expect him to get traded or leave exposed for the draft. Actually Countess would probably be the guy to let go, but he makes a lot of money, and I doubt he would be selected.
Where is the formula for graduation published? I don't think there is any criteria, remember this is MLS. Playing time means nothing or DJ Countess would have graduated last year. Age means nothing or Goodson would not have been selected to join P-40. Four years in the program means nothing because Trembly is in his 5th. The amount of pay means nothing because it's paid by Nike and the GM's decide who graduates. The only thing that makes people graduate is to make room for the next group, once there are 25-26 in program some need to move on so the next class can come in.
It bothers me when people who refuse to put the time to understand MLS's rules act like the rules don't really exist. Yes, MLS's rules may be a little bit flexible, but they're pretty clearly defined, far more than they were four years ago. Countess (and Johnson) were kept P-40 as a favor to Dallas because of the Adu fiasco. Practically anybody, like Goodson, who leaves college before their senior year leaves college via the P-40 program. The fact that exceptions to rules exist doesn't mean there aren't any rules. Nevertheless, I think you might be right, and numerista may be overestimating the number of players who are going to be graduating - considering the (likely) expansion of developmental rosters for a reserve system, MLS may be a little bit more lenient this year.
I don't think MLS wants to pay Countess $100k+ next year, cap free. So they'll graduate him. Developmental players generally have to be 23 or younger to not count against the roster and I don't see any this year that will turn 24 by the end of the season (closest is Jaqua 1981-10-28). DEV players can stay on extra year at 24 y/o (senior developmental) but I see no examples of this for p40s this year. http://www.mlsnet.com/MLS/players/index.jsp?club=mls&sort=status&order=asc So if they keep that the same this year, the following players will graduate by age: Jaqua, Burciaga, Thompson, Countess, Akwari, Trembly, Goodson, Stokes, Eskandarian, Lewis, and Gardner. Gardnrer and Goodson might be allowed another p40 season since they're only in their 1st MLS season and haven't played much. For GK's I've heard they can stay until 25 y/o on DEV and Foss seems to be that case this year. 24 y/o Senior DEV's this year include Graham, maybe Singer (GK might be 25 y/o DEV in 05). Players who will be 24 next year (may be senior dev but I'm guessing most might be expansion draft eligible) include Levesque, Arena, Scot Thompson, Aloisi, Jewsbury (I believe he's already senior roster and mlsnet is wrong), Ritch, Bobby Thompson, Stammler, and maybe (near end of season bdays) Gordon, Hesmer (GK). Some players aren't listed DEV on MLSNET though they are so I might have missed some. Stephenson is a likely case. Belleh is DEV but only 21. Same for Dorman. The 1st year players have a good chance of senior dev (not sure if this is limited to a players 2nd year in the league like I heard from 3rdDegree) Some of the 1982 DEV players I see getting promoted: Cila and maybe Griffin. Barclay is only 21 believe it or not. Younger p40s that might graduate: Dempsey, maybe Grabavoy (PT down now?), Cochrane (doubt), Johnson, Marshall, Gaven. Adu is staying p40.
No reason to doubt Cochrane's graduation ... he's already started 15 games. Grabavoy has been out with a hip injury, but he still has a good shot to play 1000 minutes this season (he's at 928). Excepting players from train wreck teams like the 2003 Burn and 2001 Mutiny, has anyone retained P-40 status after logging a 1000-minute season? (Some players, such as Quaranta, Albright, and West, have been taken off P-40 without reaching that threshold.)