I've calculated the coefficient for all countries: If 2 teams have the same coefficient I've looked at the goal difference (only when they are in different pots). Hosts Germany 2.15 (28/13) Pot A France 3.00 (15/5) Sweden 2.47 (37/15) Portugal 2.40 (24/10) England 2.31 (30/13) Italy 2.31 (30/13) Turkey 2.25 (36/16) Spain 2.21 (31/14) Netherlands 2.20 (33/15) GD +30 Pot B Czech Rep. 2.20 (33/15) GD +25 Denmark 2.19 (35/16) Croatia 2.15 (28/13) Ireland 2.13 (34/16) Russia 2.00 (30/15) Slovenia 2.00 (30/15) Belgium 1.93 (27/14) Poland 1.87 (28/15) GD +13 Pot C Bulgaria 1.87 (28/15) GD +4 Romania 1.86 (26/14) Scotland 1.77 (23/13) Austria 1.71 (24/14) Switzerland 1.63 (26/16) Ukraine 1.63 (26/16) Serbia-M. 1.60 (24/15) Israel 1.54 (20/13) Pot D Wales 1.50 (21/14) Iceland 1.47 (22/15) Slovakia 1.44 (23/16) Greece 1.36 (19/14) Hungary 1.36 (19/14) Norway 1.31 (21/16) Finland 1.29 (18/14) Belarus 1.13 (18/16) Pot E Bosnia 1.08 (14/13) Georgia 1.08 (14/13) Latvia 1.08 (14/13) Estonia 1.00 (16/16) Cyprus 0.94 (15/16) Northern Ireland 0.87 (13/15) Macedonia 0.75 (12/16) Lithuania 0.64 (9/14) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Armenia 0.60 (9/15) Albania 0.57 (8/14) Azerbaidzjan 0.57 (9/16) Moldova 0.57 (9/16) Faeroer 0.53 (8/15) Liechtenstein 0.08 (1/13) San Marino 0.07 (1/15) Malta 0.06 (1/17) Luxembourg 0.00 (0/15) Andorra 0.00 (0/16) Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
Czech Republic would go over Holland at the moment. "If two or more associations have the same coefficient, the one that achieved the better result in its most recent qualifying competition will be placed higher in the rankings. The following criteria will be taken into account, in the order given: a) Goal difference......" So far: Czech Republic: 14- 1 Netherlands: 11- 2
Thanks, then this is the correct list with this criteria: Hosts Germany 2.15 (28/13) Pot A France 3.00 (15/5) Sweden 2.47 (37/15) Portugal 2.40 (24/10) England 2.31 (30/13) 2.60 for Euro 2004 Italy 2.31 (30/13) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Turkey 2.25 (36/16) Spain 2.21 (31/14) Czech Rep. 2.20 (33/15) 2.60 for Euro 2004, GD +2.60 Pot B Netherlands 2.20 (33/15) 2.60 for Euro 2004, GD +1.80 Denmark 2.19 (35/16) Croatia 2.15 (28/13) Ireland 2.13 (34/16) Slovenia 2.00 (30/15) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Russia 2.00 (30/15) 1.40 for Euro 2004 Belgium 1.93 (27/14) Bulgaria 1.87 (28/15) 2.20 for Euro 2004 Pot C Poland 1.87 (28/15) 1.40 for Euro 2004 Romania 1.86 (26/14) Scotland 1.77 (23/13) Austria 1.71 (24/14) Switzerland 1.63 (26/16) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Ukraine 1.63 (26/16) 1.50 for Euro 2004 Serbia-M. 1.60 (24/15) Israel 1.54 (20/13) Pot D Wales 1.50 (21/14) Iceland 1.47 (22/15) Slovakia 1.44 (23/16) Greece 1.36 (19/14) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Hungary 1.36 (19/14) 1.83 for Euro 2004 Norway 1.31 (21/16) Finland 1.29 (18/14) Belarus 1.13 (18/16) Pot E Latvia 1.08 (14/13) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Bosnia 1.08 (14/13) 1.20 for Euro 2004 Georgia 1.08 (14/13) 0.80 for Euro 2004 Estonia 1.00 (16/16) Cyprus 0.94 (15/16) Northern Ireland 0.87 (13/15) Macedonia 0.75 (12/16) Lithuania 0.64 (9/14) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Armenia 0.60 (9/15) Albania 0.57 (8/14) Azerbaidzjan 0.56 (9/16) 0.67 for Euro 2004 Moldova 0.56 (9/16) 0.50 for Euro 2004 Faeroer 0.53 (8/15) Liechtenstein 0.08 (1/13) San Marino 0.07 (1/15) Malta 0.06 (1/17) Andorra 0.00 (0/16) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -1.83 Luxembourg 0.00 (0/15) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -3.00 Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
Is Europe Happy With WCQ Process? Other than the German Association's concern, there doesn't seem too much opposition to the Qualifying Process proposal in Europe at the momnet. This seems odd, because of the ridiculous increase in fixture congestion. Groups of Seven? Am I wrong about the lack of opposition? Is this because the feeling is that there is little point in opposing it (ie: a foregone conclusion)? What happened to the idea of winnowing out some of the minnows and reducing the Groups to a more manageable size? Is everyone too concerned about the Euro 2004 qualifiers to care? I suspect it will start to become an issue in the fall of 2004 after some of the bigger countries with packed domestic calendars like England will start to have bad results. Outa sight, outa mind.
Every national association has 1 vote in this. The "minnows" want to have as much games against strong teams as possible, so the idea of a preliminary round will never pass through a vote.
With yesterday's victory over the Faroes Iceland overtook Israel for a place in pot C. This are the new averages: Hosts Germany 2.15 (28/13) Pot A France 3.00 (15/5) Sweden 2.47 (37/15) Portugal 2.40 (24/10) England 2.31 (30/13) 2.60 for Euro 2004 Italy 2.31 (30/13) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Turkey 2.25 (36/16) Spain 2.21 (31/14) Czech Rep. 2.20 (33/15) 2.60 for Euro 2004, GD +2.60 Pot B Netherlands 2.20 (33/15) 2.60 for Euro 2004, GD +1.80 Denmark 2.19 (35/16) Croatia 2.15 (28/13) Ireland 2.13 (34/16) Slovenia 2.00 (30/15) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Russia 2.00 (30/15) 1.40 for Euro 2004 Belgium 1.93 (27/14) Bulgaria 1.87 (28/15) 2.20 for Euro 2004 Pot C Poland 1.87 (28/15) 1.40 for Euro 2004 Romania 1.86 (26/14) Scotland 1.77 (23/13) Austria 1.71 (24/14) Serbia-M. 1.69 (27/16) Switzerland 1.63 (26/16) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Ukraine 1.63 (26/16) 1.50 for Euro 2004 Iceland 1.56 (25/16) (D) Pot D Israel 1.54 (20/13) (C) Slovakia 1.44 (23/16) Wales 1.40 (21/15) Greece 1.36 (19/14) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Hungary 1.36 (19/14) 1.83 for Euro 2004 Norway 1.31 (21/16) Finland 1.29 (18/14) Belarus 1.13 (18/16) Pot E Latvia 1.08 (14/13) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Bosnia 1.08 (14/13) 1.20 for Euro 2004 Georgia 1.08 (14/13) 0.80 for Euro 2004 Estonia 1.00 (16/16) Cyprus 0.94 (15/16) Northern Ireland 0.87 (13/15) Macedonia 0.75 (12/16) Lithuania 0.64 (9/14) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Armenia 0.60 (9/15) Albania 0.57 (8/14) Azerbaidzjan 0.56 (9/16) 0.67 for Euro 2004 Moldova 0.56 (9/16) 0.50 for Euro 2004 Faeroer 0.50 (8/16) Liechtenstein 0.08 (1/13) San Marino 0.07 (1/15) Malta 0.06 (1/17) Andorra 0.00 (0/16) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -1.83 Luxembourg 0.00 (0/15) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -3.00 Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
Netherlands are now in pot A at the cost of Spain. Poland are now in pot B at the cost of Belgium. Bosnia are now in pot D at the cost of Belarus. This are the averages after yesterdays matches: Hosts Germany 2.07 (29/14) Pot A France 3.00 (18/6) Sweden 2.50 (40/16) Portugal 2.40 (24/10) England 2.36 (33/14) 2.67 for Euro 2004 Italy 2.36 (33/14) 2.17 for Euro 2004 Turkey 2.29 (39/17) Czech Rep. 2.25 (36/16) 2.67 for Euro 2004, GD +2.50 Netherlands 2.25 (33/15) 2.67 for Euro 2004, GD +1.83 (B) Pot B Croatia 2.21 (31/14) 2.17 for Euro 2004 Spain 2.21 (31/14) 1.83 for Euro 2004 (A) Denmark 2.19 (35/16) Slovenia 2.063 (33/16) Ireland 2.059 (35/17) Bulgaria 1.94 (31/16) 2.33 for Euro 2004 Poland 1.94 (31/16) 1.67 for Euro 2004 (C) Russia 1.94 (31/16) 1.33 for Euro 2004 Pot C Romania 1.933 (29/15) Belgium 1.929 (27/14) (B) Scotland 1.86 (26/14) Serbia-M. 1.69 (27/16) Switzerland 1.63 (26/16) Austria 1.60 (24/15) Ukraine 1.59 (27/17) Iceland 1.53 (26/17) Pot D Greece 1.47 (22/15) Slovakia 1.44 (23/16) Israel 1.43 (20/14) Finland 1.40 (21/15) Hungary 1.36 (19/14) Wales 1.31 (21/16) Norway 1.24 (21/17) Bosnia 1.21 (17/14) 1.50 for Euro 2004 (E) Pot E Georgia 1.21 (17/14) 1.17 for Euro 2004 Belarus 1.06 (18/17) (D) Latvia 1.00 (14/14) Estonia 0.94 (16/17) Cyprus 0.882 (15/17) Northern Ireland 0.875 (14/16) Macedonia 0.71 (12/17) Lithuania 0.64 (9/14) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Armenia 0.56 (9/16) 0.67 for Euro 2004 Moldova 0.56 (9/16) 0.50 for Euro 2004 Albania 0.533 (8/15) Azerbaidzjan 0.529 (9/17) Faeroer 0.47 (8/17) Liechtenstein 0.07 (1/14) San Marino 0.063 (1/16) Malta 0.059 (1/17) Andorra 0.00 (0/17) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -2.00 Luxembourg 0.00 (0/16) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -3.17 Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
This are the averages after yesterdays matches: Spain is in pot A at the cost of the Netherlands. Belgium is in pot B at the cost of Poland. Hosts Germany 2.13 (32/15) Pot A France 3.00 (21/7) Sweden 2.53 (43/17) England 2.40 (36/15) 2.71 for Euro 2004 Portugal 2.40 (24/10) no matches Euro 2004 Czech Rep. 2.29 (39/17) 2.71 for Euro 2004 Turkey 2.29 (39/17) 2.57 for Euro 2004 Italy 2.27 (34/15) 2.00 for Euro 2004, GD +1.28 Spain 2.27 (34/15) 2.00 for Euro 2004, GD +1.14 (B) Pot B Netherlands 2.12 (36/17) 2.29 for Euro 2004 (A) Denmark 2.12 (36/17) 2.00 for Euro 2004 Croatia 2.07 (31/15) Ireland 2.06 (35/17) Bulgaria 2.00 (34/17) 2.43 for Euro 2004 Belgium 2.00 (30/15) 1.86 for Euro 2004 (C) Russia 2.00 (34/17) 1.57 for Euro 2004 Slovenia 1.94 (33/17) Pot C Romania 1.88 (30/16) Poland 1.82 (31/17) (B) Scotland 1.73 (26/15) Serbia-M. 1.65 (28/17) Austria 1.60 (24/15) Iceland 1.53 (26/17) 1.86 for Euro 2004 Switzerland 1.53 (26/17) 1.71 for Euro 2004 Ukraine 1.50 (27/18) Pot D Greece 1.47 (22/15) Slovakia 1.41 (24/17) Israel 1.40 (21/15) Finland 1.38 (22/16) Bosnia 1.33 (20/15) Wales 1.29 (22/17) Hungary 1.27 (19/15) Norway 1.24 (21/17) Pot E Latvia 1.13 (17/15) 1.86 for Euro 2004 Georgia 1.13 (17/15) 1.00 for Euro 2004 Belarus 1.00 (18/18) Estonia 0.94 (16/17) Cyprus 0.88 (15/17) Northern Ireland 0.82 (14/17) Lithuania 0.80 (12/15) Macedonia 0.72 (13/18) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Armenia 0.71 (12/17) 1.00 for Euro 2004 Moldova 0.71 (12/17) 0.86 for Euro 2004 Albania 0.69 (11/16) Azerbaidzjan 0.53 (9/17) Faeroer 0.44 (8/18) Malta 0.11 (2/18) Liechtenstein 0.07 (1/15) San Marino 0.06 (1/16) Andorra 0.00 (0/18) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -2.13 Luxembourg 0.00 (0/17) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -2.86 Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
After the final Euro 2004 qualifying matches this are the averages (so this will be the pots for the WC 2006 qualifying draw): Greece and Slovakia just slipped into Pot C at the cost of Austria and Iceland. Latvia just slipped into Pot D at the cost of Hungary Hosts Germany 2.19 (35/16) Pot A France 3.00 (24/8) Portugal 2.40 (24/10) Sweden 2.39 (43/18) Czech Rep. 2.33 (42/18) England 2.31 (37/16) 2.50 for Euro 2004 Italy 2.31 (37/16) 2.13 for Euro 2004, GD +1.63 Spain 2.31 (37/16) 2.13 for Euro 2004, GD +1.50 Turkey 2.22 (40/18) Pot B Netherlands 2.17 (39/18) Croatia 2.13 (34/16) Belgium 2.063 (33/16) Denmark 2.056 (37/18) 1.88 for Euro 2004 Russia 2.056 (37/18) 1.75 for Euro 2004 Ireland 1.94 (35/18) Bulgaria 1.89 (34/18) 2.13 for Euro 2004 Slovenia 1.89 (34/18) 1.75 for Euro 2004 Pot C Poland 1.89 (34/18) 1.63 for Euro 2004 Romania 1.88 (30/16) Scotland 1.81 (29/16) Serbia-M. 1.72 (31/18) Switzerland 1.61 (29/18) Greece 1.56 (25/16) Slovakia 1.50 (27/18) 1.25 for Euro 2004, GD +0.25 Ukraine 1.50 (27/18) 1.25 for Euro 2004, GD +0.13 Pot D Austria 1.50 (24/16) 1.13 for Euro 2004 Iceland 1.44 (26/18) Finland 1.38 (22/16) Norway 1.33 (24/18) Bosnia 1.31 (21/16) 1.63 for Euro 2004 Israel 1.31 (21/16) 1.13 for Euro 2004 Latvia 1.25 (20/16) Wales 1.22 (22/18) Pot E Hungary 1.19 (19/16) Georgia 1.06 (17/16) Belarus 1.00 (18/18) Estonia 0.89 (16/18) 1.00 for Euro 2004, GD -0.25 Cyprus 0.89 (16/18) 1.00 for Euro 2004, GD -1.13 Northern Ireland 0.78 (14/18) Lithuania 0.75 (12/16) Macedonia 0.72 (13/18) Pot F (11 teams, in 3 groups there will be 2 teams from this pot) Albania 0.69 (11/16) Armenia 0.67 (12/18) 0.88 for Euro 2004 Moldova 0.67 (12/18) 0.75 for Euro 2004 Azerbaidzjan 0.50 (9/18) Faeroer 0.44 (8/18) Malta 0.11 (2/18) Liechtenstein 0.06 (1/16) 0.13 for Euro 2004 San Marino 0.06 (1/16) 0.00 for Euro 2004 Andorra 0.00 (0/18) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -2.13 Luxembourg 0.00 (0/18) 0.00 for Euro 2004, GD -2.63 Kazakhstan --- (0/0)
Whiners.... Man, UEFA already plays fewer WC qualifiers than any other confederation and gets wierd results as a consequence. Now, the German FA wants to cut more? I guess anything to take away from the international game.
Format Proposal Since Uefa has 14 berths to WC or Euro 2004 (14+champ+host), why don't they make 7 groups of 7 (49 countries) with the top two of each group qualifying. The top 42 countries get directly to the group stage. The 9 or 10 lowest seeded countries of all Europe (are they 51,52 in total?) would have to play playoffs to get to group stage. At least we would have get ride of some of those stupid Germany-San Marino or England-Faroe Island or Turkey-Vatican city (I'm kidding) useless games. In the future, just get groups of 6 or 7 according to the number of berths and make the bottom teams qualify to the group stage. If by any chance Europe is assigned with odd numbers, say 13 or 13.5, keep the 7 team group format, make it 6 groups, with the top 2 earning direct births and 3rd place teams playing playoffs for the last 1 or 1.5 berths. Really easy. I do not like when 2 teams from a weak group directly classify in spite of better teams seeded in tougher groups....
The small nations will never agree with a preliminary round, because for let say San Marino games versus the top teams are the "high point" in their existance. But for Euro 2008 there will be something you propose. There will be 7 groups (6 groups of 7 teams and 1 group of 8 teams) of which the top 2 qualify.
Different format to include small nations What about this idea to include everybody? 50 teams? 11 groups of four and 2 groups of three (round robin home and away). 2 top teams for each group of four and winners of group of 3 advance to a 6 group round of four (round robin too). Winner and runner-up of each group earns a berth. Four best third place play playoffs, winners earn berths. Maximum number of games to be played by any team: 14 for 51 or 52 nations, just make more groups of four in the first phase and instead of all the runner-ups clasifying, the top ten or eleven runner-ups. From there everything is the same. What is the advantage of this proposed system? Lower echelon teams will most likely be eliminated in the early rounds, but they still have the chance to play the big countries. If a good team fails to earn a direct berth they still have a second chance in the playoffs. Second group round will be ranked based on performance on first round, therefore early good performance will be rewarded, but late recoveries are possible.
Although I agree that the minnows will never allow the creation of a preliminary round voluntarily, I'm wondering how long it will be before the big nations bring the issue to a head and force FIFA to intervene by threatening to boycott the World Cup. I could easily see Mexico & the USA doing this in CONCACAF, Brazil & Argentina doing it in CONMEBOL, and Italy, England, Germany, France, et al doing it in UEFA. I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen in Europe the next time a European nation won the World Cup. They would be able to exert a lot of leverage as defending champs by threatening to boycott.
I think you're giving the Countries to much credit for clout they don't have. The real power in Europe lies with the clubs-not the countries. If an organised effort from the clubs ever took root for a period of time then perhaps something might change.
I do not see it happening... See the thing about Conmebol is that there are only 10 countries, and because of the level, they have 4.5 WC berths. That's a lot. In Europe, they're 50 something but they have 13 or 14 berths. It means that even if they're strong teams, chances are that a lot of teams can achieve a WC berth once in a while. And they'll have a decent WC. On the other hand, lets say Concacaf, besides Mexico and USA the other teams do not have leverage, and they have 3 berths. Therefore the third berth is for the lower echelon teams to grab. Same in Africa and Asia where they have a 10+:1 proportion per WC berth. Therefore the strong teams try to protect their few spots by making the weak teams earn their clasification to a late round chance....
Every country should have an equal chance in the qualifiers. I also think that the idea of a preliminary round must never be introduced. Football is NOT a sport just for selected "elite" countries!
If every county should have an equal chance... You think so? Therefore you agree with me that same principle should be applied to World Cup. Europe would lost a half or a third of its berths. Same for conmebol. How about that? Oceania should get at least one spot, Africa and Asia would get almost double what they have now. FEDERATION COUNTRIES PERCENT. BERTHS UEFA 50 0.26 8 CONMEBOL 10 0.05 2 CONCACAF 30 0.15 5 ASIA 50 0.26 8 AFRICA 40 0.21 7 OCEANIA 10 0.05 1 HOME TEAM 1 It would be very hard for teams like Denmark, Norway, Slovenia, even Turkey or Croatia to get to the WC. What about the likes of Uruguay or Paraguay? I guess plenty of people is dying to see Morocco and Tunisia or Honduras in WC besides Moroccans, Tunisians and Hondurans. It wont matter not to have England or Netherlands every four years. Get the picture? Face it, WC would not be the same. Europe and South America are the "Elite" of global football and they have privileges. Otherwise fans would lost interest in such tournaments. Same thing applies to Europe... and to every Federation. From my point of view to have two or three weak teams in the same qualyfing group with a powerhouse is unfair not with the weak teams (they'll pick a bunch of goals anyway) but with the other strong teams and with those not very good but with some chance to get to the tournament that have to face each other in more difficult groups. And since they get a guaranteed game against big teams, small nations do not have the incentive to improve...