Shouldn't it be compared to other Colorado games, or other early March games in addition to the overall average that includes bigger stadiums for example?
I was one of those kids that messed up the curve too, but I didn't go around trumpeting it to the class; this made me much more approachable and helpful towards classmates as opposed to the guy that everyone hated because he had a big mouth and ego. Some kids aren't cut out for A+ status, so a C is perfectly acceptable (C for Colorado, get it?). All you can do is encourage and help them along, and maybe one day they'll get an S for satisfactory (or Seattle).
C is by definition average. the MLS attendance average is going to be 18K this year. what would you then call 14K?
i never said i went around trumpeting it ... i simply wouldn't accept an incorrect answer if it wasn't incorrect no matter how well i did on the other questions. i was happy to keep it to myself but it was usually the teachers that told everybody as part of their defence for not curving the classes grades upwards ... in retrospect it seems odd for a teacher to single out a student for everybody else's ire but at the time i just figured that is how it was. and i guess this is just where i fail to understand the mindset ... C is never acceptable or it never was in my family (heck even a B wasn't acceptable). it makes logical sense that in every group some must be above average, some average and some below average ... but average being acceptable just doesn't register with me i guess because of my upbringing ...
You know, I'm shocked that I have to point this out, but given the identity of one of the participants in this kerfluffle, I'm not THAT shocked: It's not at all uncommon for the home opener to NOT be a team's highest attendance of the season or to be anything other than an average attendance.
Comparisons between last years and this years home openers. 2 Teams up 2 Teams identical 4 Teams down* LA 2012 27,000 2011 27,000 DC 2012 16,314 2011 18,402 Colorado 2012 14,746 2011 17,139 SJ 2012 10,525 2011 10,525 Van*(smaller initial capacity in 2012) 2012 21,000 2011 22,592 Dallas 2012 20,906 2011 20,145 Chivas 2012 14,464 2011 18,122 Portland 2012 20,438 2011 18,627
Trying to draw any conclusions about how well or poorly a team will draw over a season based on the attendance for their opener is a fool's errand.
this is simply incorrect. based on last year only 5 teams had home openers that were at or below their % capacity average for the year: Code: TEAM OPEN ATT %CAP 2011 %CAP SEA 36,433 100% 99% LAG 27,000 100% 86% VAN 22,592 100% 95% TFC 20,086 92% 93% NYR 20,982 83% 78% POR 18,627 100% 100% PHI 18,591 100% 99% SKC 19,925 100% 96% RSL 20,507 100% 88% HOU 19,385 88% 80% DCU 18,132 82% 69% COL 17,139 95% 82% CHV 18,122 67% 55% CHI 12,157 61% 71% NER 12,914 59% 60% FCD 20,145 95% 61% CLB 10,306 51% 60% SJE 10,525 100% 92% * HOU, DCU & NER have their % CAP based on 22,000 ** the 2011 %CAP is an average for all 17 home games with the individual capacity for each game factored in (for games that had increased capacity or that were in alternate locations) so basically ... taking out Portland who sells out every game every time ... first middle or last you have only 4 of 18 teams who were at or below their yearly average for %CAP in their home opener. and those 4 were TFC (their worst attendance year ever), CHI & NER & CLB all of whom had very down attendance years. now i haven't done this for every season but it looks to me that having an average or less than average crowd for opening day is not common nor does it seem to bode well (at least in hindsight).
That is still only one data point though. Now it may be you are right, and I am certainly not saying you are wrong because I have not run the numbers but using one season is certainly flawed. I suspect we will find that a significant number of teams have their best date on the first or last day of the season, with the 4th of July being another possibility. But what we cannot say is how significant that number will be. Also for this purpose I think it makes sense to remove obvious outliers, such as the Chivas DH that drew 92k, or even the Seattle Keller sendoff. Finally to account for fluctuating over capacity sellouts in Seattle and to some extent Toronto, I would suggest rounding to the nearest 250 or 500. Otherwise we are really splitting hairs for some teams.
Well since this started with Colorado, lets look at them: 2007: 1 game higher than the home opener, 2 games equal (stadium opener on opening game) 2008: 1 game higher (Beckham on opening game, his only appearance ever in Colorado at this point) 2009: 6 games higher 2010: 8 games higher 2011: 3 games higher (MLS Cup celebration on opening game) So it appears that when the Rapids don't have a special attendance draw on the opening game they regularly out perform their opening night number.
And since opening night is (or could be) one of the "worst weather nights" in that Denver market, that would seem to make sense. Some other markets in the league may not be "as effected" by "lousy SMarch weather" for their opener, or their March weather wouldn't be as much of an impact on their overall business and ticket sales averages relative the full season. No two of MLS's 19 teams (or 18 markets/cities) are alike. There are going to be outliers or exceptions across any metric one may choose to look at.
You said it bro that it might be close to the average (hence why I highlighted the point). The point to infer is Colorado's average may not likely trend above 15K this year, as one would expect the opener (especially in good weather) to be somewhere between the average and the max.
This is useful info, thanks. It appears that opener is typically above the median based on number of homes games (except 2010). And for 2007/2008, it was nearly the highest.