The FINAL World Cup Seeding thread

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by eldiablito, Nov 23, 2005.

  1. CONMEARG

    CONMEARG BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Jun 26, 2005
    i dunno
    haha yeah,

    the F.... do i know why i got a card,
     
  2. MassachusettsRef

    MassachusettsRef Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 30, 2001
    Washington, DC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right, but under the old formula, 1/6 of Netherlands WC seeding points in 2010 would have been allotted at the semifinalist level (29 points).

    So right now, they'd have:

    (29+0+0+x+x+x)/6

    Instead they have:

    (0+x+x)/3

    For argument's sake, let's say the Dutch lose in the quarters and are ranked as the 7th best team overall in Germany. That gives them 26 points from 2006. Now punch in the numbers:

    old formula: (29+0+0+26+26+26)/6 = 17.83 [18]
    new formula: (0+26+26)/3 = 17.33 [17]

    A neglible difference. But, the worse the Dutch do, the more the change affects them. Let's say they lose in the knockout stages and are rated the 15th best team overall (18 points):

    old formula (29+0+0+18+18+18)/6 = 13.83 [14]
    new formula (0+18+18)/3 = 12 [12]

    In the end, it's not that much of a difference. And, of course if the Dutch finish third or better in Germany the change actually benefits them. But there is a change, nonetheless. Ultimately, as I said above, I don't think it was the motivation for FIFA, but it still was a good observation by eldiabalito.
     
  3. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Re: Well!

    I would say the US will be pretty much guaranteed a seed next time if they make it out of the group stages this time. And as Mass Ref said a couple of pages ago, Holland will need a top finish this time (senmis at least) to get a seed, while France and Agrentina must make it through the group stages to get a seed. Considering that South Africa will get a seeds next time there will be some shake-up for the seeds in 2010.
     
  4. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Looks like I should have caught up with the posts before my last post above!


    Still the impact of South Africa on the seeds is gonna be big.
     
  5. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We see this everytime, and sometimes it happens and sometimes France fails to score on these guys. Costa Rica, you'll recall, though finished third to Brazil and Turkey only on GD having tied Turkey. I wouldn't look for them to get blown out. Of course, I wouldn't expect as much from this current crop I think. Still, do your research, friend. If they draw, say Ecuador and Switzerland, look for them to advance (again.)

    Altogether, no surprises in the layout. For once, I think FIFA has a good formula. I don't see why everyone thinks Serbia's got it so rough. Even if they were drawn in pool 2, they could get Paraguay and the US along with England and face a mighty tough road.

    D
     
  6. Mongoko

    Mongoko New Member

    Oct 11, 2001
    Bkk.
    Final seeding here.From BBC News 12.04 GMT today.

    Brazil 64
    England 51
    Spain 50
    Germany 48
    Mexico 47
    France 46
    Argentina 44
    Italy 44


    POT ONE
    Germany (hosts)
    Brazil (holders)
    Argentina
    England
    France
    Italy
    Mexico
    Spain


    POT TWO
    Australia
    Angola
    Ghana
    Ivory Coast
    Togo
    Tunisia
    Ecuador
    Paraguay


    POT THREE
    Croatia
    Czech Republic
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Sweden
    Switzerland
    Ukraine


    POT FOUR
    Iran
    Japan
    Saudi Arabia
    South Korea
    Costa Rica
    Trinidad & Tobago
    US

    Special pot: Serbia & Montenegro
     
  7. tomvandamn

    tomvandamn New Member

    Apr 9, 2003
    new york
    So we know that Germany is A1 and Brazil is F1
    but i havent seen anywhere details on how the draw will run.

    Will pot 1 be drawn first or will they start from pot 4?
    How or when will they know which group the serbs will get

    after a team is selected im asuming then they will pick out A2,A3,OR A4?
    also im assuming serbia will be put into pot 4 and when they pick it how will they determine who gets em

    ex. argentina is group c,brazil f and mexico h
    groupc from pot 4 gets USA
    groupf from pot 4 gets T&T
    and then mexico would get serbia right?
     
  8. auf Amerika

    auf Amerika Member

    Jul 11, 2004
    You're right. I am quite aware of Costa Rica's prowess. They probably will show better than Saudi Arabia and Trinidad, but they probably won't progress. They did just almost beat France on Martinique.

    I'm pulling for them, because it just makes the U.S. and Mexico look better. I just think, including the U.S. and Mexico, are going to get hosed this year. I don't want that to happen, but I think it will. Like you said though, it may come down to what the draw is. Hopefully Costa Rica and the U.S. will beat whomever they play regardless of how great a soccer nation they are.
     
  9. auf Amerika

    auf Amerika Member

    Jul 11, 2004
    tom,

    how do we know brazil is f1? where does fifa say that is part of the procedure for friday?
     
  10. edvc_van

    edvc_van New Member

    Oct 12, 2005
    Canada
  11. antonramer

    antonramer New Member

    Aug 13, 2004
    Rome, Italy
    This is my mock drawn:

    Gr. A: Germany, Portugal, Angola, Trinidad&Tobago
    Gr. B: Mexico, Czech Republic, Togo, Iran
    Gr. C: England, Croatia, Paraguay, Korea
    Gr. D: Italy, Holland, USA, Tunisia
    Gr. E: Spain, Japan, Sweden, Ghana
    Gr. F: Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, Poland, Serbia&Montenegro
    Gr. G: Argentina, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Australia
    Gr. H: France, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine

    Gr. G is too easy for Argentina
    Gr.C,D,E are really groups of death
    the big match of the first phase will be, without no doubt, ITA-HOL
     
  12. antonramer

    antonramer New Member

    Aug 13, 2004
    Rome, Italy
    to be more serious...

    i think that drawn are made also to avoid some matches in the quarterfinals, expecially for hosts and big teams. So 'cause Germany is A1, and Brazil is F1 if they go trough the first phase winning their groups, they are sure to met only in final. The team in group B will be soft power cause one of them is sure to met Germany in eightfinals. I expect here to have or the Mexico group, or some group in which the seeds are so strong they'll sure win the group and second team is probably a minnow for Germany.
    Germany will may have in quarterfinals probably winner of group C or group D
    (if there aren't so much surprise). So i expect here Spain or Italy, that are european team that didn't achieve so much in the last WCs and maybe will be satisfied of a quarterfinal's reach and are always perfect victims.
    For Brazil the facts are contrary, they will have probably a stronger road to final (if they reach them).
    I think FIFA don't want Brazil to win again and will happy if Germany win it. (don't forget FIFA pull Korea into semis last WC). Maybe FIFA don't want Brazil in final too, but i think it's hard to not have Brazil in the semis (even if anything could happen!).
    I believe will have another shame WC this time. I think a final revenge between Germany and Brazil, with the Germans win. A repeat of France 98!
    Oh God knows how much i'd like to be wrong here! My dream is a beautiful WC in which no refs or political situation will undermine the tournament. A cup in which the best team (or the most lucky) will win it.
     
  13. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Question for the number crunchers :D

    In the ranking tables from the FIFA document (pdf file), there are 3 pairs of teams with the same rank for Dec 2003, but they get a different amount of points.

    Nation - FIFA Ranking Dec 2003 - Points

    Code:
    Portugal          17 21
    Costa Rica        17 20
    
    Paraguay          22 17
    Korea Republic    22 16
    
    Cote d'Ivoire     70  5
    Trinidad & Tobago 70  6
    What's the tie-breaker? :confused:
     
  14. eldiablito

    eldiablito New Member

    Jun 8, 2000
    in Sagy's shadow
    That is certainly a keen observation!

    In the past, they would split the points for tied teams (ie. Portugal and Costa Rica would both be awarded 20.5).

    Also, in the past, the FIFA rankings would be rounded to whole numbers, BUT one could tell which team was actually higher ranked due to the placement of the names. For example it would look like this

    22 Paraguay
    22 Korea Republic
    22 Costa Rica
    22 Poland

    There would be four teams tied for 22 on a given month, BUT there was no explanation as to why Paraguay would be first in that list.

    HOWEVER, now that same example would look like this

    22 Costa Rica
    22 Korea Republic
    22 Paraguay
    22 Poland

    Alphabetical order

    I'm not sure if this answers your question exactly, but I believe the tiebreaker is the actual FIFA ranking (not rounded to whole numbers).
     
  15. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

    Jun 8, 2005
    Long Beach, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Darn it, the USA is on the outside looking in. Rats. :mad:
     
  16. Shackleton

    Shackleton New Member

    Sep 13, 2005
    N. Texas
    That is a good observation and a change that I had not noticed.

    As eldiablito noted, the points a team receives in the FIFA Rankings are always listed as a whole number. But, the formula used would produce a number out to a number of decimal places. When FIFA publishes the rankings they apparently round the points to the nearest whole number and list teams as tied, even if the real, unrounded points are not the same. For example, in the December 2003 Rankings, Portugal and Costa Rica are both listed with 682 points. That point total for both is a rounded number.

    For purposes of the WC seeding formula, FIFA has presumably gone back and used the unrounded point total, rather than the published, rounded point total. Note that the team that received the higher points (Portugal, Paraguay, Ivory Coast) was always listed first in the December 2003 FIFA Rankings. http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Dec-2003,00.html
     
  17. For purposes of rankings, its probably appropriate not to round, because a team with 658.33 points can hardly be said to be "better" than a team with 657.67 points, so being tied for 10th in a given month doesn't change your life as opposed to being alone in 10th or alone in 11th. Seeding of course is different because only 8 teams can have a seed and it matters whether you have one or not.

    If the seeding formula results in a precise tie, one can always go back to raw data and unround prior December rankings.
     
  18. CONMEARG

    CONMEARG BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Jun 26, 2005
    i dunno
    well i went with the rules *ALL OF THEM*
    and came out wit dis.

    A-
    germany,holland,ivory coast,usa

    B-
    spain,poland,togo,costa rica

    C-
    italy,switzerland,tunisia,korea

    D-
    france,Czech,paraguay,japan

    E-
    mexico,croatia,ecuador,saudi arabia

    F-
    brazil,sweden,austrailia,Trinidad y Tobago

    what do u think is the death???

    Group A I say
     
  19. CONMEARG

    CONMEARG BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Jun 26, 2005
    i dunno
    OH CRAP....
    heres the rest...


    G-
    Argentina,ukraine,ghana,serbia and montenegro

    H-
    england,portugal,angolia,iran
     
  20. cordobesenUS

    cordobesenUS New Member

    Nov 12, 2005
    Austin-TX
    I don't know guys, but to me the fact tht France was champion in 98 should count a lot more than getting your butt kicked in the first round in 2002 while mexico made it to the second round without ever winning anything, just like Spain, while france lossing in the first round is reason enough to discredit the fact that they won one of the last 2 cups. France also qualified in a far more difficult group than mexico or spain and unlike spain, didn't need extra games to qualify. To me it's a bit ridiculous.
     
  21. eldiablito

    eldiablito New Member

    Jun 8, 2000
    in Sagy's shadow
    :confused:

    Last I checked, France is seeded for 2006. What exactly is ridiculous?
     
  22. Andy TAUS

    Andy TAUS Member

    Jan 31, 2004
    Sydney, AUS
    Forget him, he's just catching up - it's late at night and he's got a few under the belt ! :D
     
  23. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    This is an "what if" moment for all you Danes on BS :)

    Let's go back in time for a moment and let's say Denmark had beaten Turkey for the runner-up spot in group 2 of the WCQ - UEFA zone. Let's go a little bit further and let's say the draw for the Euro play-offs would have been the same, with Denmark playing against Switzerland. One little step furter - Denmark beats Switzerland and qualifies for Germany. Again, let's assume FIFA would use the seeding formula announced on Tuesday.

    Drum roll please.... The final seeding table would have been:

    Nation - Total ranking - Total performance - Total

    Code:
    Brazil         32.000 31.667 63.667
    England        24.667 26.000 50.667
    Spain          28.333 21.667 50.000
    Germany        19.333 29.333 48.666
    Mexico         26.000 21.333 47.333
    France         30.000 16.000 46.000
    Denmark        20.667 23.667 44.333
    Italy          23.000 21.333 44.333
    -----------------------------------
    Argentina      29.000 15.000 44.000
    USA            23.333 19.333 42.666
    Netherlands    28.667  9.667 38.333
    Korea Republic 14.333 22.000 36.333
    (I hope my calculations are correct).
     
  24. cordobesenUS

    cordobesenUS New Member

    Nov 12, 2005
    Austin-TX
    oops yeah you are right man.
     
  25. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal

    That to me is the biggest disappointment of this final. The absence of the Danish side.
    Well they lost it fair and square, but that is the one international side I really enjoy watching. Regardless of the outcome it is usually entertaining.

    My prediction for the group of death is Brazil, Netherlands, USA, and Tunisia

    Serbia-Montenegro will end up in Mexico's group. (fix is in)
    However Mexico will likely end up with Paraguay as well.

    Germany will end up with Trinidad and Tobago, in their group.

    I cite "economic factors".
     

Share This Page