The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

Housekeeping

Ain't none. So onto the nonsense ... I mean the numbers.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D  L  PTS  PPG  PRJ  MPP  SE# WS# M#  T#  HD#÷  AD#÷[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  27  3  16  05  06  53  1.96  59  62  10  --  --  --  --    --
02  RSL  27  3  14  09  04  51  1.89  57  60  08  --  --  --  --    --
03  FCD  27  3  12  13  02  49  1.81  54  58  06  --  --  --  --    --
04  NYR  27  3  14  05  08  47  1.74  52  56  04  --  --  --  --    --
05  CMB  27  3  13  07  07  46  1.70  51  55  03  --  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
06  SEA  27  3  12  06  09  42  1.56  47  51  --  --  04  12  --    1.53
07  SJE  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  --  --  06  13  --    1.67
08  COL  27  3  11  08  08  41  1.52  46  50  --  --  05  11  --    1.87
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  26  4  09  06  11  33  1.27  38  45  --  --  13  06  1.77  3.40
10  TFC  27  3  08  07  12  31  1.15  34  40  --  --  15  01† 3.00  5.20
11  CHI  26  4  07  08  11  29  1.12  33  41  --  02  17  02  2.77  4.40
[COLOR="SlateGray"]12  PHI  27  3  07  07  13  28  1.04  31  37  --  03  18  --  --    --
13  NER  27  3  07  06  14  27  1.00  30  36  --  04  19  --  --    --
14  HOU  27  3  07  05  15  26  0.96  29  35  --  05  20  --  --    --
15  CDC  26  4  07  04  15  25  0.96  29  37  --  06  21  --  --    --
16  DCU  27  3  06  03  18  21  0.78  23  30  --  --‡ 25  --  --    --[/COLOR]

Current AD-Line: 47^[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

† TFC remains playoff viable only because its tiebreaker with SJE goes to GD, which is unsettled.

‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 10 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

^ Set by COL’s current 46 point (1.52 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above.

** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  LAG  27  53  13  14  8  2  3  8  3  3  00
02  RSL  27  51  14  13  10 4  0  4  5  4  -04
03  FCD  27  49  14  13  8  5  1  4  8  1  -06
04  NYR  27  47  13  14  9  1  3  5  4  5  -06
05  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  2  3  4  5  4  -09
06  SJE  26  40  13  13  6  3  4  5  4  4  -12
07  SEA  27  42  14  13  7  3  4  5  3  5  -13
08  COL  27  41  14  13  8  4  2  3  4  6  -14
09  KCW  26  33  13  13  6  3  4  3  3  7  -19
10  CHI  26  29  12  14  3  6  3  4  2  8  -21
11  TFC  27  31  14  13  6  5  3  2  2  9  -24
12  PHI  27  28  13  14  5  6  2  2  1  11 -25
13  HOU  27  27  13  14  5  3  5  2  3  9  -26
14  CDC  26  25  13  13  5  2  6  2  2  9  -27
15  NER  27  26  14  13  6  3  5  1  2  10 -29
16  DCU  27  21  13  14  3  1  9  3  2  9  -32

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
01  RSL  2.43    01  LAG  1.93
02  NYR  2.15    02  FCD  1.54
03  FCD  2.07    03  SJE  1.46
04  CMB  2.07    04  SEA  1.38
05  LAG  2.00    05  NYR  1.36
06  COL  2.00    06  RSL  1.31
07  SEA  1.71    07  CMB  1.31
08  TFC  1.64    08  COL  1.00
09  SJE  1.62    09  CHI  1.00
10  KCW  1.62    10  KCW  0.92
11  PHI  1.62    11  DCU  0.79
12  NER  1.50    12  HOU  0.64
13  HOU  1.38    13  TFC  0.62
14  CDC  1.31    14  CDC  0.62
15  CHI  1.25    15  PHI  0.50
16  DCU  0.77    16  NER  0.38[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
CDC:   TFC  @SEA   SJE
      ----  ----   CHI
CHI:   CMB   KCW  @CDC
      ----   DCU  ----
CMB:  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
COL:  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
DCU:   SJE  @CHI   TFC
FCD:   COL  @RSL  @LAG
HOU:   NER  @SJE   SEA
KCW:   SEA   CHI   SJE
      ----  @NER  ----
LAG:  @PHI   COL   FCD
NER:  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
NYR:   RSL  @PHI   NER
PHI:   LAG   NYR  @CMB
RSL:  @NYR   FCD  @COL
SEA:  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
SJE:  @DCU   HOU   CDC
      ----  ----  @KCW
TFC:  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U]

Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = 
         Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG]

RSL:  1.90
FCD:  1.81
COL:  1.79
PHI:  1.79
NER:  1.49
LAG:  1.38
KCW:  1.34
SEA:  1.21
CDC:  1.20
CMB:  1.13
HOU:  1.13
TFC:  1.13
DCU:  1.11
NYR:  1.10
CHI:  1.08
SJE:  0.91[/B]

Code:

[B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U]

[URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL]
[URL="http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/soccer.htm"]Sagarin's MLS Ratings[/URL]
[URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL]
[URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL]
[URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/2010-playoff-standings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL]
[URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] 

Please suggest others.[/B]

Notes

1) It seems that the old 40 points gets you within spitting distance of the playoffs rule of thumb is kaput. All the teams in the top half of the table are at or above 40 points already, and there’s three weeks to go. Maybe this year is an aberration. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come. One thing is for certain: the reason the 40 point rule of thumb is no more is because of a big jump in MLS team disparity. Earlier in this thread I posted a graph showing the standard deviations of MLS PPG numbers since 1996.

The updated raw graph looks like this, and not much has changed since the last time I posted it. I remarked at the time that the variability of the 2005 numbers was due entirely to the entrance of CDC and RSL into the league. So I decided to see what the standard deviation was just for the established MLS teams over the years and removed the numbers for all expansion sides during their initial expansion year. This meant, for example, removing CDC and RSL in 2005 (both of which did terribly), as well as removing CHI in 1996 and SEA in 2009 (both of which did great). Leaving Houston’s numbers in (because they were not a true expansion side), but taking all the expansion sides out, the graph looks like this.



I suspect because of contraction, from 2001 to 2002 there was a huge increase in league parity (take out Tampa in 2001 and the standard deviation remains high: .41). If you were to draw a trendline from 2002 until 2009, it’d be pretty close to a straight line, maybe just a little under .24. Then this year there’s a big jump in disparity. I assumed this was because of the league spending more money on salaries, but it’s not (or at least that’s not the only or the decisive factor). Projecting current PPG numbers into season totals, and comparing those projections to team salaries, you get this:



Yes, NYR and LAG are at the top of the standings, but so are RSL, FCD and CMB. More, TFC and CHI are both near the bottom of the standings despite higher than average salaries. Finally, take out LAG and NYR from the standard deviation calculations and the change barely even registers, dropping only from .39 to .36. So spending is not the decisive factor here. Even if you take out the high spending teams, the disparity remains. There’s just more disparity in this league than there has been since 2001. The better teams are simply better, and the worse teams are simply worse. Why? Honestly, I have no idea.

2) COL, that was a seriously stupid game to lose. I mean, you needed the points, you’re playing the worst team in the league (a team that just plain doesn’t win in Denver), and then after that you have one of the very hardest schedules in the league. And you went and blew it. Big time blew it. Stupid!

3) KCW, how the devil did you lose and yet survive another weekend?

4) SJE, how did you get such an embarrassingly easy end of the season schedule?

The DC United Dungeon of Doom & Doggies!

I sense a pattern here: every three games, we win. Considering this season, it’s not terrible. Giving Interim Head Coach Olsen credit for Substitute Interim Head Coach Ashton’s win over COL, the Olsen Pace improved to -.89, which is a hell of a lot better than Onalfo’s pace of -1.33.

If we want to beat the old DCU worst, then we’ve gotta win every single one of our remaining games. So forget that, because it ain’t happening. What about beating the worst teams ever? We’re back out of the bottom five. And we only need one stinking, lousy point to stay out of the bottom five for good. Currently, we’re at 21 points. If we end the season at 21 points we’ll match the 2009 NYR record. So we need one point, and as far as I’m concerned, that should be our goal for the remainder of the season: one point.

That and more puppies!

 

I'm of two minds on this. Certainly, I think that's totally plausible, and I even advanced a variant of this idea to explain the increased parity in 2002: contraction increased the density of the talent pool. But at the same time I can look at this and say it's not 100% clear.



I used the sans expansion year teams data. On the one hand, there's really no decisive correlation between the number of teams and the amount of parity. The 12 team league numbers are all over the place.

On the other hand, if you dig a little deeper, there is a plausible story about the number of teams and league parity. Look at the clusters. The 10 team league cluster is grouped pretty closely together. There are lower standard deviations and less variation at 10 teams, meaning the league exhibits more parity. There's much, much more variation in a 12 team league. But the high disparity years are pre-2001 (let's assume 2000 was a fluke). When the league returned to 12 teams in 2005, there was a high degree of parity (perhaps because of an expanded talent pool). And then you have the last three years: each year the number of teams increased and each year parity decreased. The only hitch: seems to me the last few years this league has been bringing in more and more talent. Still ...

 

Boy, I just had a totally withering thought.

If Yoshou's hypothesis is correct (and there is some evidence it is), then DCU is probably totally screwed next year. DCU needs upgrades pretty much everywhere. More, if any FO relies on blind squirrel luck for finding quality players, it's the DCU FO. But with Portland and Vancouver joining the league, the talent pool will become even more stretched and the chances of the DCU FO being lucky will be even worse.

What depressing prospects ...

 

Well, I think you're both thinking a bit more long term than I am. And you might be right in the long term. But it's not like the team's academy is going to fix DCU's problems by next season. (And we may have trouble finding that "good coach" Yoshou is talking about. That is, however, another thread over on the DCU board.) As for the year to year mobility ... I actually think it takes more than "not that much," and given that my team's mobility in recent years has been entirely downward ... so, yeah ...