As requested in another thread here is a list of each teams Magic Numbers to clinch one of the top 8 playoff posistions. I went with a single table as I think it looks cleaner as teams are looking to be better than the ninth place team in the league for the purpose of this chart. If anyone has any recommendations on cleaning this up or adding more data to it or removing it from the table I can do that as well. I will try to update this every morning after the games if possible. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT M# 1 New England 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 10 2 D.C. United 21 12 6 3 39 9 66 13 3 Houston 23 11 7 5 38 7 59 14 4 Chivas USA 20 11 6 3 36 10 66 16 5 FC Dallas 21 11 7 3 36 9 63 16 6 New York 22 10 9 3 33 8 57 19 7 Kansas City 22 9 8 5 32 8 56 20 8 Colorado 22 7 9 6 27 8 51 25 Columbus 22 6 7 9 27 8 51 25 Chicago 21 7 9 5 26 9 53 26 Toronto FC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 32 Los Angeles 18 3 10 5 14 12 50 38 RSL 19 2 11 6 12 11 45 40 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number I calculated (MPT of 9th place team Columbus right now at 51 - Pts +1) On thing I found interesting is that in the next 3 weeks Columbus plays the Rapids, Fire, and Wizards. And those are the only 3 matches between the 7, 8, 9, and 10 teams for the rest of the season (unless I missed one). If the Crew win at least 2 of 3 they could be sitting in a strong position going into the end of the season.
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2008 [R] It's 2008 already? Wow, does time fly. I figured this thread would be how the playoffs would be set up next year, which IMO, should be and probably will be the top 4 from each conference (no crossovers). Aside from the little mistake about forgetting what year it is, I like the idea, but I think it's just a little too early, as theoretically every team could still mathematically win the Supporters' Shield. Maybe in another 3 weeks or so.
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2008 [R] I agree I think it is a bit early. Someone requested the information so I posted it for them in a different thread, but it makes sense to move it out of the 2006 thread. As for 2008, well I am an idiot Though with the Crew playing the Rapids this weekend and if they tie a couple teams will be in high single digits from clinching.
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2008 [R] I'm much more interested in the "tragic numbers" than I am in the "magic numbers" - ie I want to know how close RSL and the Galaxy are from playoff elimination. Only problem is I forget how you're supposed to calculate them and can't find a good explanation anywhere (as the baseball formula is clearly not applicable). Anyone want to fill in the "tragic numbers"?
Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT M# T P 8 Colorado 22 7 9 6 27 8 51 25 --- Columbus 22 6 7 9 27 8 51 25 25 Chicago 21 7 9 5 26 9 53 26 27 Toronto FC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 32 18 Los Angeles 18 3 10 5 14 12 50 38 24 RSL 19 2 11 6 12 11 45 40 19 TP = Tragic Points I think I got the math right on all these but I could be wrong.
I don't get your magic numbers thing. What is it supposed to be representing? It certainly can't be the amount of points the team needs to get by the end of the season (# is 19 for NYRB, but they only have 4 games left).
I think I got the same as you. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# 1 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 37 10 2 DCU 21 12 6 3 39 9 66 40 13 3 HOU 23 11 7 5 38 7 59 33 14 4 CDC 20 11 6 3 36 10 66 40 16 5 FCD 21 11 7 3 36 9 63 37 16 6 NYR 22 10 9 3 33 8 57 31 19 7 KCW 22 9 8 5 32 8 56 30 20 8 COL 22 7 9 6 27 8 51 25 25 CMB 22 6 7 9 27 8 51 25 25 CHI 21 7 9 5 26 9 53 27 26 TFC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 18 32 LAG 18 3 10 5 14 12 50 24 38 RSL 19 2 11 6 12 11 45 19 40 Interesting to me that from this perspective TFC is actually in the worst shape playoff-wise.
Red Bulls have 8 games left. You can define it a couple of ways: 1) If the team gains this number of points in its remaining games, it will reach the playoffs, regardless of all other results in the league. 2) If the sum of points gained by the team in question and points lost by the 9th-place team adds up to this number, the team will have qualified for the playoffs. So, for example, if the Red Bulls earn 19 more points, they will have 52. There are 5 teams in the league that cannot reach 52 points, so with 52 points, the Red Bulls can finish no worse than 8th and will be in the playoffs.
In practical terms, the last play-off spot is a 3-legged race between Chicago, Colorado and Columbus. Should any of the current "in" teams such as New York and KC experience slumps, they'll join the race from the top (by falling down). Off their play, TFC and the LAG are realistically eliminated. Hypothetically, however, LA could get on a roll (is Yallop really resigning soon?) and make it interesting.
I'd say just Columbus and Chicago. Colorado beat Houston on an own goal and then they beat LA, luck and a bad team.
CACuzcatlan - I think Colorado is going to have a tough time as well, but they do play RSL twice and LAG once and play the Crew this weekend. If they can get wins in those 4 games which would be tough to pull off they would have 39 points. that would put them above Chicago or Columbus based on Points per game projections right now. Plus Chiacgo and Columbus probably have tougher schedules left than Colorado, though I can't say for sure as I have not calculated that. Maybe tomorrow morning. Knave - Don't worry about the points till elimination, things will look more normal by tomorrow. Unless of course RSL wins. Plus you have RSL and LAG playing on Saturday for the rights to the top overall draft pick
I'll be watching how Houston and FCD fair, Chivas USA would love to see both teams lose... it will be a battel all the way to the end.
Colorado's been playing a lot better since Clavijo put in Colin Clark on the left to compliment Terry Cooke on the right and Conor Casey's return from injury. With Kirovski in a withdrawn role (I'd play Hernandez there myself), they seem to be gelling. And, as has been pointed out, they have a favorable schedule to end the season. Of course, with the juggernaut that RSL is becoming ...
Well no major changes at the bottom as I expected. Congrats to RSL for a much needed win to stay in this. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# 1 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 37 10 2 DCU 21 12 6 3 39 9 66 40 13 3 HOU 23 11 7 5 38 7 59 33 14 4 CDC 20 11 6 3 36 10 66 40 16 5 FCD 21 11 7 3 36 9 63 37 16 6 NYR 22 10 9 3 33 8 57 31 19 7 KCW 23 9 9 5 32 7 56 27 20 8 COL 22 7 9 6 27 8 51 25 25 CMB 22 6 7 9 27 8 51 25 25 CHI 21 7 9 5 26 9 53 27 26 TFC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 18 32 RSL 20 3 11 6 15 10 45 19 37 LAG 18 3 10 5 14 12 50 24 38 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination SOS No Weighting 1 1.56 Chicago 2 1.50 Kansas City 3 1.40 FC Dallas 4 1.38 New England 5 1.36 Columbus 6 1.36 Toronto FC 7 1.34 D.C. United 8 1.33 Real Salt Lake 9 1.33 Chivas USA 10 1.31 Los Angeles 11 1.24 New York 12 1.23 Colorado 13 1.13 Houston SOS Location weighted 1 1.72 Chicago 2 1.62 Kansas City 3 1.41 New England 4 1.38 D.C. United 5 1.38 8Toronto FC 6 1.38 Real Salt Lake 7 1.35 New York 8 1.34 Los Angeles 9 1.34 Colorado 10 1.31 Columbus 11 1.27 Houston 12 1.26 FC Dallas 13 1.17 Chivas USA A few posts back I said how Colorado probably has ana easier schedule going foward than Chicago or Columbus. I crunched the numbers and I did it two different ways. One ways was to just use each opponenets PPG divided by total games left. The other way was to take into account where the game will be played. For instance if you play Chivas on the Road there average PPG is 2.75 but if you play them at home there PPG is 1.16. On thing I noticed is that Chicago has a brutal stretch of games where they will play FCD on the road, DC at home, Chivas on the Road, NE at home, and DC on the Road.
Convenient that you skipped over our 3-0 thrashing of New England with that statement. Not to mention that in our last 8 games we play FSL twice, LA again, Columbus and Toronto. We have Chivas and New England on the road and Chivas at home, everyone else left is below us in the standings.
Updated to reflect last nights games. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# 1 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 37 10 2 DCU 22 13 6 3 42 8 66 40 10 3 HOU 24 11 7 6 39 6 57 31 13 4 CDC 20 11 6 3 36 10 66 40 16 5 FCD 21 11 7 3 36 9 63 37 16 6 NYR 23 11 9 3 36 7 57 31 16 7 KCW 23 9 9 5 32 7 56 27 20 8 COL 22 7 9 6 27 8 51 25 25 CMB 22 6 7 9 27 8 51 25 25 CHI 22 7 10 5 26 8 53 24 26 TFC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 18 32 RSL 21 4 11 6 18 9 45 19 34 LAG 19 3 11 5 14 11 47 21 38 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination
Thanks for the numbers, Gemmell. BTW, it looks like you forgot to update KC and FCD after last night's games -- KC has 33 pts, 24 GP; FCD has 36 pts, 22 GP.
I love this season ... it's been awesome. And some huge games this week that will affect playoff standings ... and hopes! DC @ Chivas, Thursday. Chicago @ CBus, Saturday Revs @ DC, Sunday RBNY @ Chivas, Sunday 4 of this week's 7 games are just huge, in regards to playoffs, and three are huge in regards to the Shield.
Updated to include all the games through this weekend. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# 1 DCU 22 13 6 3 42 8 66 39 8 2 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 36 8 3 HOU 24 11 7 6 39 6 57 30 11 4 CDC 20 11 6 3 36 10 66 39 14 5 FCD 22 11 8 3 36 8 60 33 14 6 NYR 23 11 9 3 36 7 57 30 14 7 KCW 24 9 9 6 33 6 51 24 17 8 COL 23 7 9 7 28 7 49 22 22 CMB 23 6 7 10 28 7 49 22 22 CHI 22 7 10 5 26 8 50 23 24 TFC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 17 30 RSL 21 4 11 6 18 9 45 18 32 LAG 19 3 11 5 14 11 47 20 36 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination
Updated to reflect last nights game. Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 23 13 6 4 43 7 64 37 7 23 2 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 36 8 21 3 HOU 24 11 7 6 39 6 57 30 11 15 4 CDC 21 11 6 4 37 9 64 37 13 22 5 FCD 22 11 8 3 36 8 60 33 14 18 6 NYR 23 11 9 3 36 7 57 30 14 15 7 KCW 24 9 9 6 33 6 51 24 17 9 8 COL 23 7 9 7 28 7 49 22 22 7 CMB 23 6 7 10 28 7 49 22 22 7 CHI 22 7 10 5 26 8 50 23 24 8 TFC 22 5 12 5 20 8 44 17 30 2 RSL 21 4 11 6 18 9 45 18 32 3 LAG 19 3 11 5 14 11 47 20 36 5 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number I calculated (MPT of 9th place team Colorado right now at 51 - Pts +1) T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination SSE# = Supporters Shield Elimination Number (Points missed until eliminated) Games that will have the most impact this week on the races. Chicago at Columbus NE at DC Red Bulls at Chivas No body can clinch this week, except for Toronto, Salt Lake being eliminated from the Supporters Shield.
Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 23 13 6 4 43 7 64 37 4 22 2 NER 23 12 5 6 42 7 63 36 5 21 3 HOU 25 12 7 6 42 5 57 30 5 15 4 CDC 21 11 6 4 37 9 64 37 10 22 5 FCD 23 12 8 3 39 7 60 33 8 18 6 NYR 23 11 9 3 36 7 57 30 11 15 7 KCW 24 9 9 6 33 6 51 24 14 9 8 CHI 23 8 10 5 29 7 50 23 18 8 COL 24 7 10 7 28 6 46 19 19 4 CMB 24 6 8 10 28 6 46 19 19 4 TFC 23 5 13 5 20 7 41 14 27 - RSL 22 4 12 6 18 8 42 15 29 - LAG 19 4 11 5 17 11 50 23 30 8 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number I calculated (MPT of 9th place team Colorado right now at 51 - Pts +1) T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination SSE# = Supporters Shield Elimination Number (Points missed until eliminated) Two teams are now eliminated from Supporters Shield Contention.