DC United: The Good, The Bad, and The Playoff Situation

Thanks for the early morning pick me up.

So we're to blame you for the woofing?

Good analysis. I'm hoping that we get a couple of players off of injury and that helps things. Because if we fail to make the playoffs *again*, the entire FO needs to be fired and do the walk of shame out of RFK. Well they've needed to go for a while now but if that doesn't do it, then they must have pictures of Chang and the new owners with a goat hidden away.

 

The coaching staff too.

I'll be at RFK next year anyway. The problem is those who are fans but now go to a few or no games a year now. I assume attendance has something to do with DC United's stadium quest but there is nothing I could imagine saying to someone to convince them to see a game (at least related to what's going on on the field).

 

The home games are incredibly important. But "non-wins" vs only NER and CHV, at home, still wouldn't "prevent" on their own DCU from getting ~10 points from their next 5 games, nor immediately disqualify United from the post-season all together. (at least 2 "bad" results are likely to happen in United's final 7 games. The key is what they do with those other 5 games. (There are certainly points everywhere to be had across the season -- but yes the margin for error, and dropped points, tends to get tighter later in the season.)

as for the chart above, I like it, and I like your analysis of it: "To have any realistic chance of making the playoffs, we're going to have to at least double our current PPG 5-game running average."

So what you're saying is that United has to do in games 28-34 what it was doing back in games 15-18 and/or in games 8-11. (Not an impossibility, imo, given that this is "the same team" and it's "already done that" this season -- in terms of maintaining some consistently +2.0 Rolling 5-Game PPG Averages, as they looked to have done it from games 8-11 and from games 15-18 this season.

Certainly, from the graph, United's recent trajectory isn't nearly as encouraging as CLB's or MTL's trajectories are, but from the looks of it those teams have themselves been all over that graph across the season, and there's no guarantee that their final 5-7 games will look as high/successful as their most recent 5-7 games. DCU's just got to return to "mid-season form" (<1.5 PPG form) and hope for the likely event that one or both of CLB and MTL will also return to their own "mid-season" from for the final 6 weeks of the season.

 

agree with a whole lot of this.

although, what qualifies as "nuts" now (in terms of what it takes from a PPG perspective) was always going to change as MLS expanded and added more and more teams that "aren't making" the playoffs each year. (and as the league settled on a 34-game season the "total points" threshold was never going to be all that relevant when the analysis was based on seasons of various and fewer total games played per team.)

in the near future, I could easily see MLS establishing a 12-team post season for a 20-team league. (and then the PPG playoff threshold would/could approach those lower and "more normal" expectations that fans/analysts have seen MLS establish in its short and varied history as a league with and ever-changing, and adapting/expanding, playoff qualification standard.)

 

agreed.

(save for the "excuse" that DC is geographically disadvantaged, in terms of MLS's 2012 competition format and results. life would be so much better for United, in this scenario, if the club were say located in Vancouver. not that the local fans would appreciate that. And the same could be said about MTL, or any/every "East" team, in 2012.)

 

yes.

but "the normal" doesn't exist for MLS, imo. the league is always adapting and changing what it has done (and opted to do and has had to do) across its history.

2012 is the "new normal" -- and MLS is still a "young-ish" league that is best trying to figure out an appropriate competition format (and deal with some things like the unfortunate reality of trying to run a league with 19 teams in it). (Not that "regionalizing" the schedule and focusing on local rivalries and attempting to cut down on travel across the season was the "best" operational move overall, from a competitively-neutral standpoint. But I can see why MLS did it in 2012.)

as soon as team 20 joins up, that will be a "new normal" again for MLS. (If I had a vote, I'd opt to ship Houston out to the West in 2013 just to be better prepared for the supposed arrival of some new team to the East in some future/soon season, and to "balance-out" the imbalance that looks to be happening in 2012.)

if MLS opts to expand to 12 playoff teams when team 20 arrives, then perhaps only 2012 and 2013 (assuming a 2014 launch season for team 20) may be the only years in which 1/2 of a conference fails to make the post-season. (Although, I'd also be fine with MLS sticking with a 10-team post-season even when it has 20 teams total.)

 

just to footnote, and I'm sure you're aware of this, those next two "home" games also have an away game (at PHI) sandwiched in between. So 3 games in 9 days. (Sat-Thurs-Sun.)

Certainly a good time to try to grab as many points (if not max 9) as possible across that stretch.

fwiw, during that sames that same weekend-midweek-weekend stretch for United, Columbus is @NY, home to CUSA, @CHI on the Sat-Wed-Sat schedule.

 

Given our recent history over the last few years, I don't assume any game comes close to an automatic win for us. First of all, look at Philadelphia at RFK. Second, consider some random event like a DeRo or Kitchen injury.

I really don't want to put myself into a frame of mind where I expect wins from this team and then we lose. It will be like last year where fans gave an inspirational last burst of support to DC against Portland at RFK and we shit all over ourselves. Covered ourselves from head to toe in loser poop. I think I got an aneurysm after that.

 

High hopes. Low expectations.

A solid win on Saturday could open up the windows and let the stank of the last 5 games out.

Knave, you are a priceless resource and I appreciate all that math.

 

Knave does math so I don't have to.

Knave is a hero.

 

Ok, let's try this...

Knave understands how to get Excel to do the math we want to see so I don't have to.

Knave is a hero.

 

I have to correct one thing:

Rubbish. The Impact are done. We've got 2 points and 2 games in hand. They're gonna get 6, maybe 7 points, bringing them to 46. I more or less agree with your estimate -- the cut-off will be at 52 or, I think, 53 points. Montreal has little shot at being in the range.

The battle for the last 3 spots should be a heated one -- between 4 sides -- Houston, Chicago, Columbus and DC. Really, any one of those 4 could find themselves on the outside looking in at the end. Though CCL play may complicate this, Houston seems most likely to make it through, as they should get 9 or 10 points, giving them 54 or 55. So, the season will probably come down to games between DC, Chi, and the Crew.

Columbus ought to get at least 9 points, bringing them to 51, so their fate will depend on whether they can get points in KC, Chi, or DC. The Fire should get at least 6 or 7, bringing them to 50 or 51. If the Fire can hold serve at home by defeating either the Crew or DCU, they should go through. For United, assuming they get 6 points from home games, against the Revs and Chivas, that will get them to 47 points. They could steal 3 or more points in road games at Toronto, Philly and Portland. If they win 2 of those games, they might not have to worry about division rivals. However, it's likely they're going to have to defeat either the Crew, at RFK, or the Fire, on the road.

So, I think DCU can get in with 53 points, by beating either the Fire or the Crew, but it might even take 54 points to get in, and that would really put DCU behind the 8-ball.

 

The one asset this team still has is it's home form.

This next game is a great opportunity to regain the upper hand over Columbus. I see a very high likelyhood of CLB dropping points in NY this weekend, so 3 points at RFK could put us back into 5th. Getting 1 point will kick the can down the road and set Columbus up for the next game to increase their lead with an easy home game while we have to travel to Philly who always give us trouble.

 

Exactly. Strange things can happen.

And (with about 6 weeks to go) if we're willing to not exclude MTL entirely from consideration of those East teams still in the race to make the playoffs, I'd like to put forward the idea of not excluding NYRB entirely from consideration of those East teams still in the race to miss the playoffs.

Although NY has been doing very well at home in 2012, a couple of slip-ups at home in Sept/Oct really could complicate things for them. Here's their remaining schedule that includes home games vs. CLB, SKC, TOR, CHI and SKC (again) and a short road trip to NE in Sept and then to PHI to close out the season in Oct.

if CLB, SKC twice, and CHI can grab points in NY -- then there's the real, but perhaps small, possibility that NY could be pulled into the race for spots 2-5 in the East along with HOU, CHI, CLB, DC and MTL.

(but there's a lot of soccer to still be played, and these "top 7" teams in the East are going to likely be sharing points or taking possible points off of each other. hope for many ties in games not involving DC, or hope for the bottom three teams - NE, PHI, TOR - to start accumulating some wins somehow, other than against DC of course.)

 

Just the thought of having to cheer for NY this weekend is making me nauseous already.

 

I ********ing hate Ryan Murphy.



//yes, that's all I got out of this thread.

 

The next 5 matches will decide who gets 3-5. Miss that group and DC should clean the FO out as they brought in the changes that quite frankly have only affected the clubhouse; the result on the pitch has not been "better". Standing still would got us to the same place.

More than 10 points in these 5 is not only doable but should be expected. This is the easy part of the schedule. It is also the final opportunity to get cohesion and consistency for the playoffs.