Youth Yanks Abroad, '97-'00 YOBs: 2018/19 Thread

bshredder,

Do you disagree with the premise wrt MLS' weakness defensively and tactically? thanks.

 

Tactically, it varies from team to team. Some are good, some aren't.

Defensively, it is true that more money is spent on attacking players. I reject the idea that the league is flooded with older and washed up players from Europe. The headlines suggest that but the evidence does not. It's mostly younger foreign attacking players in the league.

That being said, it does provide for a lot more opportunities for young American defenders to get on the field. That's why you see a bunch of good, young American defenders in the league right now. Which is good.

 

MLS used to be average goals per game league. Now that ratio is extremely high. It seems that those young foreign attackers totally dominate whatever defenders MLS has.

 

it is funny that almost all American pundits, when discussing the Eredivisie, will say it is a defense second league and getting goals there is easy. Totally ignoring that GPG in MLS is higher than in Holland.

Also, "young" is relative with some people in and around MLS considering 24 as a young player. Almiron is 24, Martinez is 25, Dockal is 30, L. Acosta, 24, Nikolic 30, Vela 29, Giovinco is 31, Urruti is 27. BWP, Zlatan, and Rooney are even older.

Most of the attacking talent in MLS is foreign and in their prime. The few Americans are also older or in their prime. There is no wave of "young attacking talent". Where "young" would be U20 or even U23.

 

How about the age when they signed with the league? That's a little more relevant.

Acosta, 21
Almiron 22
Martinez 23
Jefferson Savarino 20
Diego Rossi 19
Kaku 23
André Horta 20
Jesús Medina 20
Barco 19

Of course the "old" guys you mentioned are over 30 but are in the minority. Giovinco and BWP all came when they were in their prime.

The average age of the designated players coming into the league during the last offseason was 22.5.

 

The guys you list under 23 haven't really had big impacts yet. There is potential sure. Kaku has been very good but is not young, Acosta didn't do much until "Old Guy" showed up.

I was making the point that most of the best attacking players in MLS are in their prime or just 30. Whether they signed a few years ago, not sure that matters. They are dominating now. There are no U23 attackers in the league really, that are anywhere near the Top 5 in any category. There are many more attacking players that I didn't list too like Lodeiro, Piatti, Quintero, etc.

I was mostly agreeing with you that it isn't 32+ ex-European stars. Just a quibble that the players are "young". 23 is not "young" these days. Dortmund has played games where they played 7 U23 players, six at a time. 4 of those in attacking positions. Another two players basically a few months over 23.

FCN in Denmark has an average age around 21.

"Young" is U20 these days. Maybe U23 if you want to push the envelop. MLS is has two aged ex-Euro stars, a couple of prime age Americans, and the rest of the attackers are prime aged internationals and a Canadian teenager.

 

Comparing things to Nordsjaelland is not really fair since they are THE youngest among the several hundred top division club in Europe. I do know that the top two leading scorers in Denmark are over 30 and foreign.

I always thought it was poor form when the MLS Soccer site would advertise that 24 was young. But I think there is a flip side that too many people think teenagers get enormous amounts of playing time in other leagues outside of MLS.

A few weeks ago I looked at a few random leagues to see how many minutes were given to domestic teenagers through roughly the first six weeks of the season.

Argentina
30 out of 1,144 starts went to domestic teenagers (2.622%)
3001 out of 102,960 minutes went to domestic teenagers (2.91%)

Mexico
38 out of 1584 possible starts have gone to domestic teens (2.399%)
3648 out of 142,560 possible minutes have gone to domestic teens (2.559%)

Belgium
There have been a total of 1056 starts in the Belgian league so far and 20 have gone to domestic teens (1.89%)

There have been a total of 95,040 minutes played so far in Belgian league (not including time missed to red cards). So far 2128 minutes have been played by Belgian teens (2.24%)

I am still running the numbers for MLS which is at the end of the season and has a lot more data to sort through but the numbers are, if not equal, pretty good in comparison. 2018 has been a good year.

But the bottom line is that in a lot of leagues you would think of being "developmental" in nature, a lot of the top players (even attacking) are still in their mid to late 20's. MLS is no different.

Here is a useful chart for you

Age of the top 5 leading scorers in "developmental" leagues

Eredivisie (23, 29, 23, 26, 28) 2/5 domestic

Belgium (29, 25, 21, 23, 22) 1/5 domestic

Denmark (30, 33, 24, 18, 22) 3/5 domestic

Argentina (31, 35, 20, 31, 34) All domestic. 4/5 over 30!

Brazil (22, 38, 26, 21, 33) All domestic

Austria (26, 32, 24, 32, 37) 4/5 domestic

Sweden (32, 29, 34, 32, 23) 1/5 Domestic

MLS (25, 37, 33, 27, 23) 1/5 domestic

Mexico (29, 32, 30, 25, 20) 0/5 domestic

 

Great stuff! I would add that the leading scorers are usually strikers and strikers tend to develop later. The peak age for a winger and central attacking mid is 25 and a striker is 27. People routinely say center backs develop later, but the peak age for center back and striker is the same. Nobody mentions that strikers take longer to develop.

And thank you for comparing the Argentinian league. I think this is the American league that should be compared to for youth development and youth opportunity. It is silly to compare MLS to the EPL for instance.

The numbers are so small that one Tyler Adams or Christian Pulisic can really effect the total and average. The U20 WC probably effects the numbers every other year.

Thanks!

 

MLS usually goes in cycles. There will be a period of improving defense followed by improving offense. For the first time there has even been a period of improving tactics with coaches like Vieira, Tata Martinez and now Almeyda.

 

Pulisic wouldn't show up in a list like this since he is a foreign teenager in Germany. That's the same reason why I don't include Barco in MLS numbers.

MLS was helped this year by Adams, Davies, McKenzie, Durkin, Cannon & Trusty (both played a TON before turning 20 around midseason). Those teenagers all will finish in or beyond 1500-2000 minutes. That's a very healthy number. Mihailovic would have been there if he had been healthy.

Then you have a slew of guys who at least got their feet wet (Lindsey, Busio, Real, Fontana, Bello, Carleton, Bassett, Brewer, etc).

The Argentina's Primera is pretty interesting. Like most South American leagues, it's almost entirely domestic - something MLS, Liga MX, or any top-flight Western European league will ever come close to.

There are also a ton of really old players in Argentina. Joel Sonora often shares the midfield with 40 year old Pablo Guiñazú (who I assumed was retired until I was researching a piece on Sonora).

I just looked it up. Argentina's season is 8 weeks old and so far 27 players who are 35+ have played. To make that even more staggering, that number does NOT include keepers. It will also increase as the season goes along because there are a lot of 34 years olds too.

Huracan and Estiudiantes regularly start 3 non-GK players 35+. Colon start a 37 year old defender and a 39 year old midfielder.

 

They're just there as a PSA to remind older fans to get their club's namesake checked.

 

I've looked at it before, and your intuition that the U20 WC affects the value every year is quite true. You may be surprised, however, that the U20 WC raises the amount of minutes to *teenagers.

*this graph shows minutes for players born a max of 20 years previous to the year, so for 2018 its born on or after 1/1/98, for 2017 it's on/after 1/1/97, etc.



That was from early May, so the number for early this year has likely changed. I'll redo it tonight, but still, it's an interesting and irrefutable trend that minutes increase in U20 WC years, and that MLS minutes in general for U20s are increasing.

 

Bless you for your research and writing, @bshredder

I refer to this in my mind as the preparation/showcase bump that clubs give their U20 ynt'ers during those WC years. Interesting that this was the first year in MLS (at least since 2010) that those minutes haven't decreased the year following the U20WC.

 

But just as FCN is exceptional by being by far the youngest team in Europe, and their home grown players are either sold or pretty much ar found to be too "old" and are finished and replaced by someone younger by the time they turn 23, then it's also quite an exception to find 30-yo's among the top 2 in the topscorers list and we are only 12 games into the season ...

You also need to consider that a very young Danish league topscorer at half-season is likely to be sold in the winter break and so is not likely to finish at the top of the top-scorers list ... Last season Danish U-21 international Emiliano Marcondes moved abroad in the winter break but still finished as shared top-2 in the top-scores list at the end of the season ... in 2017-16 the Superliga top-scorer was 21 when he moved abroad at the end of the season ... and in 2016-15 the Superliga topsocrer Lukas Spalvis was 22 when he moved abroad while the 2nd placed Nicolai Jørgensen was 25 (and moved abroad to become the top scorer in the Dutch League, the following season)..

 

Sergino Dest started and played 90 minutes (subbed) for Ajax's first team in a friendly vs PEC Zwolle:

https://www.ajax.nl/streams/actueel...ak-tegen-pec-in-oefenduel-op-de-toekomst-.htm

 

Wright scored a laser of a strike for Schalke U-23's. He now has 3 goals and 1 assist in 213 minutes this season. He's way too good for this level. He should try for a permanent transfer elsewhere in the winter.

Here's the full game. He scored in the 48th minute. https://www.sporttotal.tv/spiele/ob...us-erndtebruck-fc-schalke-04-u23-10-spieltag-

 

Obviously go where you’re wanted but wouldn’t mind seeing him in Denmark.

 

Rattled the crossbar on a vicious half volley in the first half also.

I think it's way too early for him to look to get out of Schalke. It's likely that he trains with the first team over the winter break to potentially earn some appearances in the 18 and a few first team minutes before the end of the season. Another loan could be in order for next season, but I'd think he is still in Schalke's plans. Either way, it's clear that he's at least a notch or two above Schalke's reserve team level.

 

I kinda wonder whether a transfer agreement is already agreed upon for Richards.
[We know there is a transfer clause as part of the loan.]
For quite some time now Bayern has been behaving as if Chris Richards is their player.

Two MLS products in this picture

The future is bright. ☀️💎

👉https://t.co/gLJNqIvBFx#MiaSanMia #FCBayern pic.twitter.com/8a537YkkY2

— 🇺🇸 FC Bayern US 🇨🇦 (@FCBayernUS) October 12, 2018

 

Sergino Dest starts for Jong Ajax. Stream here: http://vipbench.xyz/foxsports1nl.php

 

It was widely reported there is a purchase clause in the loan agreement.

 

I heard from a few folks Richards loan deal was through January so it will be telling if he comes back or stays. haven't heard or Roberts is going on an extended loan over there but hope he does.

 

Roberts doesn’t turn 18 until next May so he can’t compete in games until the 2018/19 season. So he can’t really go on loan yet

 

Yeah, Roberts going now seems like the kind of trial/audition that Richards went on before a loan agreement was worked out. I could easily see him going on loan NEXT season. Hard to know how the roster will shake out next season (after the expansion draft, blah, blah, blah. FCD also likely to have either 3rd or 4th pick in the superdraft.). I'm pretty confident in saying that Aranguiz and Pomykal will still be there in the #10 spot. And Pareja isn't playing a #10 right now anyway....................

I'm really liking how this Bayern/FCD partnership is going so far. I was quite skeptical about it when it was announced as I didn't know how committed Bayern would be. Its a good effort by FCD to prevent the kinds of defections (without payment) that clubs like RSL have recently had to endure. A kid can sign with FCD and have that avenue to Europe built into his development plan. For this model to work its important now that Bayern pulls the trigger on signing Richards. So same thing as McKennie leaving for Schalke, but FCD will get paid. Success story all around.

NYRB and NYCFC already have this sorta thing built into their existence. RSL has a track record of producing talent that's quite lengthy at this point. Why wouldn't a Bundesliga club try to set up the type of arrangement that Bayern did with FCD? What's the downside for the Bundesliga club? What's the downside for RSL at this point? If they could have convinced one of Ledesma, Ochoa, Soto, and Booth to stay thru this type of initiative, then it would have had value.

[I'm not confident that a solution to the training compensation conundrum is coming any time soon. That would of course be the preferred solution. Barring that, clubs should be looking for ways to get compensated for their youth products. This is one...............]

 

I don't see the FC Dallas to Bayern thing as being inherently good. These players have no chance to make the first team. Best case scenario, they go out on loan somewhere, and have success there. Its still not preferable though. Being a loanee from a big club is not an easy road. Most players who have a lot of success in football didn't start off their pro career on loan elsewhere. Much better to be in an environment where the club values your contribution.

Worst case scenario, they wasted a couple of years, and then Bayern kicks them out. At that point, they have to look for another club with likely no professional games. At that age, they could've already had 50-75 appearances for the FC Dallas first team. The FC Dallas fans like to claim they have such a great academy and they can produce players. If so, why not bring Richards and Roberts through? Does anyone think that the U-19 then loan path is better than a Tyler Adams path?

We now have three of the best young Americans (Richards, Booth, Roberts) who will be going down that Bayern path. We've seen it at some other Bundesliga clubs with mixed success. It might be across the board bad results at Bayern. I don't like the idea of outsourcing development of three talented young Americans to a club we have no idea if they can do a good job with developing these players.