your 23 for france

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by luvdagame, Apr 9, 2019.

  1. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I'm pretty sure the fact that she was never getting a fair chance up top is what hastened Lauren Cheney's retirement. Winger and midfielder, and especially defensive midfielder were not her positions. She was a striker. A pure finisher.

    Crystal Dunn is not an outside back. Her wheelhouse has always been in the top two lines, creating havoc, pulling defenses apart, having a player or two to switch positions with.

    Hell, Kelley O'Hara was still playing up top for her WPS(?) team when she was moved to the back line with the WNT.

    The amount of putting square pegs into round holes with the WNT has always been mind-boggling to me. It's not a particularly new phenomena.
     
    MiLLeNNiuM, Namdynamo and sitruc repped this.
  2. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Possibly the most context-less bit of analysis I've ever seen.

    If by "men's development plan" you mean that the national team staff should constantly be fostering more players at the national team level to put pressure on the incumbents, provide depth against injuries, lack of form, suspensions, and adding the ability to adapt to multiple playing styles - and then picking squads based on a mix of merit and experience, then YES. The women should follow the men.

    A better question is that given the head start that Title IX game the U.S. over pretty much every other country playing international women's soccer, why has the U.S. never swept both the World Cup and Olympic titles in any given cycle? Why have we only won three World Cups? For me, that's a better question. Yes, the rest of the world is catching up, so it is getting harder. The old WNTPA sorority system is becoming more and more outdated and counter to national team success as we move forward. The U.S. could afford to ignore player development for the first couple decades of the modern era of WNT programs, but it can't anymore.

    Heinrichs picked a team not built to win a 6 game in 3 week tournament in 2003, but there really weren't many options that she left behind. Sixteen years later and it feels the same way. It's easy to criticize quite a few of Ellis's picks for France, but it's really hard to realistically name more than a few viable alternatives.

    One of the main differences between the WNT and MNT programs is that if you go back to the loss in Trinidad that killed the Russia 2018 campaign, it would be pretty easy to exclude the 23 players Arena took to Trinidad and come up with a different group of 23 players he could've taken and probably won the game. There is no depth in the WNT, and given the players with years of experience in the NWSL, that's almost criminal. The WNT is taking non-fit players to France because the alternative ranges from untested to marginally experienced. Instead of looking at seasoned pros who show against international players week in and week out in the NWSL, Ellis has been bringing in amateurs for friendlies. The politics and economic incentives/disincentives of the USSF/USWNTPA CBA that reinforces playing the players that are anointed is the real root issue.
     
  3. Number007

    Number007 Member

    Santos FC
    Brazil
    Aug 29, 2018
    What makes you think Lavelle, Pugh, Davidson are great? I see no evidence that they are
     
  4. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Maybe the fact that they're on the World Cup roster? They are by far the best young players that the USWNT have.
     
  5. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Saying something like this in support of an argument is :thumbsdown::thumbsdown:. In the team's most recent friendly, Rapinoe did not play and Morgan played only a half. The game before, both Morgan and Rapinoe started but were subbed out.:mad:
     
  6. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    Are you arguing against the idea that Rapinoe, Morgan, Heath, Horan, Ertz, Brunn, Dahlkemper, Naeher, Dunn have not played the overwhelming majority of available minutes, when healthy, in Friendlies over the past two years?

    The USWNT has no depth because Ellis made a conscious choice not to discover any. Ellis is possibly hamstrung by the CBA, but she has never said so. The CBA was re-negotiated recently, but Ellis's pattern of call-ups has not changed.

    There were articles, just a short while ago, where the players were frustrated they were losing win bonuses because of Ellis's constant tinkering with lineups and player positions. So, strangely, Ellis has integrated very few new players since 2016 (two) but has played all the 2016 players all over the field.

    In other words, when Ellis had the need for a new CM, she wouldn't look at a new CM, she would play a forward or defender there. Same with outside back and even center back for a good chunk of 2017.
     
  7. Number007

    Number007 Member

    Santos FC
    Brazil
    Aug 29, 2018
    that says a lot then. Ive watched them ALL play a lot thru club and college ( where applicable) They are good players. They are not, in my opinion, by far the best young players we have. They are however the current chosen ones. I think that is the issue. A lot of this is NOT performance based
     
    Namdynamo and Patrick167 repped this.
  8. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And who are the best young players in your opinion?
     
  9. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Which is my point exactly.

    Who can tell? We don't really know, do we?
     
  10. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    On Pugh: There seems to be, ever since her return from injury, something wrong with her. Before her injury she was quite possibly on her way to becoming the best player the US has had in a forward position for a very long time, Then she got hurt and things changed.

    It is not unusual for a player to be tentative and lack a bit of aggression for a while after an injury but Pugh is not as good now (I would say 10-15% poorer if I had to put a number on it) as she was just before her injury. She just does not take the chances that she did before and she gets dispossessed on the dribble a LOT more than she did before.

    As I learned a long time ago returning from an injury is hard even if the injury is not in any way career threatening. It requires coaching (including the training staff) and personal desire/fortitude and peer support. Something in that formula is missing from Pugh's recovery and, since I do not know her or her teammates or the coaches/trainers that deal with her on a daily basis, I really have little idea what the problem is.

    The one thing I am pretty sure of is that the problem is NOT with the national team staff as they do not deal with the players day to day. However it is often just a small step to come from almost all the way back to all the way back and I hope that the extended time she will now be spending with the Nats will expose her to someone/something that will trigger the last step of her recovery.

    Playing as she is now she will be and should be a good solid sub off the bench at about the 60 minute mark. Playing the way she was before her injury or even better because of experience could result in her being in the running for both the Golden Ball and the MVP of the WWC.

    I hope we will see her come out of her doldrums soon as she could make the difference in the US's success at the WWC but she is young and young people often surprise us both in a good way and a bad way and we will just have to see what happens with Pugh.
     
  11. Number007

    Number007 Member

    Santos FC
    Brazil
    Aug 29, 2018
    we all have differing opinions based on how heavily we weigh certain things. I dont give much weight to WNT players feasting on weak competition. I give a lot more credibility to the NWSL and in some case College. Sullivan vs Pugh is an interesting comparison. Goal scorers seem to have the get out of jail free card. Both players came into the league with fanfare. Ones performances in the league seem to have excluded her (until recently) from WNT consideration. The other has been indulged on the WNT irrespective of Club form.

    The WNT is one of the few teams i can think of where selection often seems pre determined. An image is created of a player and then that is constantly buffed to the point where current form matters little. It then becomes almost impossible to drop said player because no one knows anything about the replacement.

    McCaskill is another one. Given a chance, did some good things, now cannot consistently start for Sky Blue. Which is it? NT level or not NWSL level
     
  12. Number007

    Number007 Member

    Santos FC
    Brazil
    Aug 29, 2018
    I've never seen the potential that you do. I see a player who primarily relies on athletic gifts to win 1 vs 1s. I think the dip you talk about is a reflection of that. I think she can be an effective player, but i dont think she is well rounded enough to be truly great.
     
  13. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    There is definitely some of this on the Women's side in the US:

    Identify the best 16 year olds from watching them at 14. Those players then are the U17 team. They become the U20 team. Then those become the basis of new players for the USWNT.

    All players not in that initial U17 pool are then into college and the NWSL and never seriously given a chance unless there is a glaring need. But they are never really part of the team.

    If you look at this anywhere else in soccer, it is rare that almost an entire U17 roster becomes the U20 roster. It is just very volatile in those ages.

    How many on the USWNT came from the NWSL or even NCAA without ever playing U20? When you consider the number of players on a U20 roster (18-23) versus the number of players playing U20 soccer in the country (500?), it is amazing that USSF can have picked out every good player...

    O'Hara played U16, U17, U20, U21, U23
    Dahlkemper played U17, U20, U23
    Brunn played U16, U19, U23
    Dunn played U17, U18, U20
    Ertz played U15, U18, U20, U23

    You get the idea, they were all identified as 14 year olds and basically moved along.

    McCaskill played, and was very good, in the Australian league. I think it is more about giving her a rest knowing she will be heavily relied upon when players depart for the WC. Interestingly, she never played YNT and is one of the few examples of a player that was not selected at 15.
     
  14. Number007

    Number007 Member

    Santos FC
    Brazil
    Aug 29, 2018
    thank you for picking up my point. It seems that the USSF are more concerned with proving themselves right, than accepting mistakes and correcting them.the laws of probability are against the current make up unless you believe that gaining repeated access to YNT camps actually makes these players better than those who dont. I am a believer that in the USA, college coaches do a lot of the meaningful refining. some more than others. It is usually too late to change the technical foundations, but they try and refine technically and tactically as best they can. Most of the Clubs drive players down pathways that win now. Its how the clubs market themselves to new customers ...W/L record.

    In the USA, we focus on winning so much that we have lost sight of the importance of teaching fundamentals. if we win the WC, it will be seen as vindication. Personally, i think the YNT warning signs are a major concern
     
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not arguing anything. I'm simply stating facts, in response to a miss-statement of facts. If people want to criticize, that's fine with me. It's not fine if they miss-represent what the facts are as a way of supporting their criticisms.
     
    taosjohn repped this.
  16. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    I think you were nit picking a bit and the larger point is indisputable. You can argue whether Ellis is forced to play the best players all the time or she chooses to or she doesn't know any better or she never expects to be in the job long enough for it to matter. But you can't deny the players are getting almost all the minutes.

    It is true for the team as a whole and any position. Look at GK, Solo got almost all the minutes then was dropped and Naeher got almost all the minutes. If Naeher had not got hurt during SheBelieves, the other GKs would have probably not played at all or 45' each all year.
     
  17. Kevin625

    Kevin625 Member

    Jan 4, 2016
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    The USWNT has played 49 games since the 2016 Olympics, which is a total of 44100 minutes across the 10 field positions.

    The following is a list of every CAP'ed field player since 2016 OG, with a couple notes included...

    USWNT Roster.png

    I'm sure most that have followed the USWNT since at least 2016 OG will remember Jill Ellis constantly stating "this is the time to experiment and bring in new players," referring to the end of 2016 and all of 2017. At the start of 2018, she said "the time to experiment is over."

    She did bring many new players into camp, although she had to since many retired. Only three players made the 2019 WC roster that got their first CAP after 2016 OG...

    • Abby Dahlkemper (10/19/16)
    • Rose Lavelle (3/4/17)
    • Tierna Davidson (1/21/18)

    As you can see from the spreadsheet above, Ellis seemed to narrow her roster down extremely early. Very few players that didn't make the WC Roster got a look over the past two years and those that did got very little playing time.

    ALI KRIEGER
    Ali Krieger hadn't played a game in over 2 years until the last game, and only 5 games (279 minutes total) since 2016 OG. She only has 369 minutes played (4 games worth) since 2016 OG, yet that's 23rd most minutes played for all field players (20 total make the roster). Two of the players ahead of her that didn't make the roster haven't earned a CAP in over a year.

    CASEY SHORT AND KELLEY O'HARA INJURIES
    Casey Short got plenty of playing time early on in the cycle (4th most minutes played in 2017), but obviously fell out of favor with Ellis, playing only 300 minutes the last 18 months, even though KO was injured for the majority of that time.

    Short got injured in the 2nd game of the 2018 SBC vs France. In the 75th minute, Short got injured and Dunn moved from F to LB to finish out the rest of the game.

    The following game vs England, Crystal Dunn ended up making her first start at LB for the injured Short, and Sonnett made her first start at RB (out of necessity) for O'Hara, who also picked up an injury. Sonnett and Dunn have been the starting OB's ever since that game.

    Short came back from injury a few months later, but Dunn was already cemented at the LB position. For some reason, Ellis didn't move Short to RB (or Dunn to RB and Short to LB) and was supplanted at OB by the far inferior Sonnett.

    Short has played 231 minutes at since returning from injury last June, yet somehow, Sonnett has logged a very crappy 897 minutes at RB since Short returned from injury and usurped her spot.
     
    MiLLeNNiuM, jnielsen, CoachJon and 9 others repped this.
  18. Kevin625

    Kevin625 Member

    Jan 4, 2016
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    As you can see from my last post, Short not making the roster at OB in lieu of both Krieger and Sonnett doesn't make any sense to me.

    I understand Short can't get forward as well and with as much quality when she does as Dunn or KO, which is what Ellis wants... but Sonnett and Krieger definitely can't either. Sonnett can't even pass the ball forward (except very rarely against complete Tomato Cans).

    We're very weak and short-handed at OB. What happens if we play France (or any other quality team) in the knockout stages and we get the lead and just need to hold the lead for the last 20-30 minutes... who do you want playing OB if KO/Dunn/Davidson are injured/suspended?

    A) Sonnett, who is absolutely terrible at the position and makes terrible fouls
    B) Krieger, who is slow as hell now
    C) Short, who is a great solo defender

    I have a very bad feeling that OB is going to be what knocks us out of the WC. It's a glaring weak spot that will be obvious and exploited by our opponents, especially a team like France, assuming KO/Dunn can't play every minute of the tournament.
     
  19. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I appreciate your chart, but I have a question. Are the "first caps" supposed to represent first caps of this cycle or something? If not and they are actually supposed to be the player's first cap for the senior team, then there are several mistakes: Long was first capped in 2014. Horan was first capped in 2013. Sam Mewis was first capped in 2014.
     
  20. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    Perhaps, and I base this on no facts whatsoever, Sonnet has a contract. I would guess Short is the player who lost her contract and McDonald and Krieger are the two floaters.

    Screw rep, I owe you a beer. That chart is fantastic.
     
    MiLLeNNiuM, CoachJon, Namdynamo and 2 others repped this.
  21. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Fantastic.

    I did something like this back in 2003, but I also compared it to the MNT. It's really stark how set the WNT roster is, and how nothing has changed in the last four cycles. Did we really learn anything the last 3 years giving Becky Sauerbrunn 42 caps or Alex Morgan 44? This isn't the pre-2001 era or the 2004-2008 gap where there was no domestic professional club scene. Half or more of those caps should've been used elsewhere, looking for and potentially developing new players. Sauerbrunn and Morgan weren't going anywhere. If better options hadn't presented themselves, they'd have been perfectly ready for WWCQ last Fall.

    I imagine the goalkeeper list is even more shocking.

    The top 10 field players in minutes got 58% of the minutes.

    The top 16 field players (the number dressed in an 18, and with six friendly subs, often the number used) got 81% of the minutes.

    The 20 field players going to France got 87% of the minutes. That shows no experimentation, we're getting to statistical noise to account for the rest.

    Casey Short accounts for 30% of all field player minutes among those not going to France.

    It's absolutely astonishing how top heavy that list is, and how short the tail is. I'm guessing there's another small group of players that got called into camps (Hinkle) and maybe even dressed for a game, but never saw the field.
     
    MiLLeNNiuM, jnielsen, Kevin625 and 2 others repped this.
  22. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Here's the boiled down chart from ECG#26 (June, 2005) (I'm not going to search the CD library for the original Excel spreadsheet.

    Code:
         USWomen NT - US Men NT
    Year GM PL T15% - GM PL T15%
    1995 23 24 92.4 - 14 35 79.5
    1996 24 26 91.5 - 16 43 81.2
    1997 18 37 82.6 - 18 46 69.7
    1998 25 38 86.0 - 16 40 75.6
    1999 29 35 87.8 - 13 49 67.6
    2000 41 44 81.6 - 17 45 67.0
    2001 10 44 59.1 - 15 47 73.0 WNT strike
    2002 19 33 81.3 - 20 45 71.2
    2003 23 30 79.0 - 15 44 72.9
    2004 34 29 88.2 - 15 46 70.7
    T15% - Percentage of minutes played by top 15 players
    
    As you can see, this is nothing new. With 1/3rd to 1/2 the games, year after year, with different head coaches, the WNT continues to play the same players again and again. The WNT in this period was coached by DiCicco and Heinrichs (with Gregg? handling the WNT with the replacement player trip to Australia in 2001). The MNT was coached by Sampson and Arena.

    It would be interesting to go back and bring this up to date, I'm somewhat curious as to what Sermanni's numbers look like.

    I wrote this editorial in June 2005 after the start of the Greg Ryan era, commenting that with two years to develop players, he was off to a rocky start. He had seen the retirement of Chastain, he had gone out and brought back the agin Milbrett, Fotopoulos, and Lorrie Fair(?!?) back into the squad.

    Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
     
    lil_one, Kevin625 and Patrick167 repped this.
  23. jackdoggy

    jackdoggy Member+

    May 16, 2014
    Big D
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wwwwwwhoa, a color-coded chart with 40+ of my favorite people on the Planet.
    A+++++++++++++++++++++++.
    The outside-back situation also has me perplexed but that is nothing new for me.

    I am left with 2 undeniable facts:
    • I know jack squat
    • HCJE and the Coaching Staff knows a million x's more than me.
    During the Month of the 75th Anniversary of the last time we went to France to set things straight, these 23 incredible, outstanding, astonishing totally awesome American Women will once again invade France and kick *ss.
    2019 WNT WWC roster poster.png
     
  24. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    Actually, what I see is that an awful lot of players--41?-- got capped-- I haven't counted myself but my understanding is that in the period Andy says Ellis should have looked at 50-60 players and didn't, she actually had 61 in camp.

    Further, if those numbers Kevin625 posted are accurate they certainly put the lie to the "every game, 90 minutes" claim.

    This forum is full of Chicken Littles IMO. We might not win the World Cup-- these days they pay the other guys too-- but it is certainly not a foregone conclusion and all the whining-in-advance, be-the first-to-announce-disaster gives me a sort of spiritual headache.

    Thank God for jackdoggy!
     
    CoachJon and cpthomas repped this.
  25. Kevin625

    Kevin625 Member

    Jan 4, 2016
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Yeah, thanks for catching those.

    I added in their first CAP's at the last second of just the most recent players (since 2016 OG). Then, I started adding a few more but only adding the players that weren't regulars. In haste, I did miss the first CAP of the 3 you listed by accidentally only filtering back to Jan 1, 2015 and missed the long gaps they had between their first CAP's and being CAP'ed again. I should have consulted the Media Guide.

    CORRECTIONS
    • Long got her first CAP on 5/8/14. She had 4 CAPs (178 min) in 2014, then wasn't CAP'ed again until 2016.
    • Horan got her first CAP on 3/8/13 at Algarve, she played 2 games (40 min) in early 2013 and then wasn't CAP'ed again until late 2015.
    • Mewis got her first CAP on 3/7/14 at Algarve. She played 3 games (96 min) in 2014 and then wasn't CAP'ed again until late 2015.
     
    Namdynamo, AndyMead, blissett and 2 others repped this.

Share This Page