Yearly look at our forwards

Discussion in 'Real Salt Lake' started by ccb1212, Sep 1, 2010.

  1. ccb1212

    ccb1212 Member

    Sep 5, 2006
    West Jordan,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the last two years, I have done a comparison of our forwards. I thought it would be fun to see how they are stacking up this year so I looked at all the numbers.

    It is kind of basic, but here is what I look at. I looked at each match we played. For each forward, I made note of how many goals were scored while they were in the match. Then I made another note for how many goals were scored while they were not in the match. This gives me a basic idea on how well our offense runs while that player is actually on the pitch.

    I only ran these numbers for league matches, not Open Cup or CCL. Just so you know, on average RSL is scoring a goal ever 60 minutes of play.

    While Sabo is on the field, RSL is scoring a goal once every 55.9 minutes. While he is off the field, we are scoring every 60.7 minutes. While Robbie is on the pitch, we are scoring a goal every 48.4 minutes. When Robbie is not playing, we are only scoring a goal every 70 minutes. With Espy, we score a goal every 75.1 minutes while he is playing. When he is not playing, we score a goal every 40.4 minutes. And with Campos, we score a goal every 50.5 minutes when he is on the field and 59.1 when he is off.

    I was really surprised to see the totals for Espy. Our production is not very high when he is playing. This is a very basic way to look at things, but I have always found it interesting.

    If anyone is intersted in looking at past years, here are the threads.

    http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=726031
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1154560
     
  2. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    those numbers are, like you said, very interesting. You would think our best striking option would be Sabo and Findley if you only looked at those. However, I think Findley is benefitting more and more from coming on or coming off at certain points of the game (same with Sabo, to an extent)
     
  3. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

    Jun 20, 2007
    Home
    These are good numbers for determining how much a player contributes indirectly to the offense. It's helpful (for me, at least) to look at these with the goals/assists they produce themselves.

    Code:
    Player   Min/goal   Min/assist   Min/goal(indirect)  Min
    Saborio    181.5       363         55.9              1452
    Espindola  247         617.5       75.1              1235
    Findley    189         315         48.4              945
    Campos     --          304         50.5              304
    (my info is from MLSsssoccer -- those are numbers from league games only, right?)

    What I see from this immediately, is that Robbie's numbers make him look like a great forward, despite my frustrations with his play this season.

    I wonder if there's some way to combine the three statistics into one, simple, "striker production index" you could use to rank the players outright? You'd have to have unequal weight on each column, otherwise Robbie ends up as the best forward.

     
  4. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    or maybe we are all blind and Findley is having a great year....

    yeah, i didnt think so either

    ******** statistics
    (side note, I at one time wanted to be a statistician)
     
  5. I_Believe_In_Kreis

    Oct 2, 2006
    on the pitch
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, maybe. I think this does tell us two things pretty conclusively:

    1. Sabo is the lynchpin. He makes the whole thing go.
    2. Sabo plays off Findley better than he plays off Espy.
     
  6. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i dont agree with that, especially lately.
    the stats may say something to that effect, but watching it says something entierly different. Go look at the Cruz Azul game (or not... go look at the TFC game)
     
  7. UPinSLC

    UPinSLC Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    SL,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    the are lies, damned lies and statistics:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

    everyone and their mother would agree that findley is having a bad year, he's scored some goals but he hasnt been what i would consider effective or efficient this year.

    the single biggest problem with an analysis like this and team like we have is that so many different people have scored goals this year. we arent a normal team, we literally get goals from every position on the field. thats why this year i hate to see comparisons of our forwards because the forwards are just a small piece of what is used. our defenders have what, 5 or 6 goals this year? the midfield has a shitload of goals as well. does this mean our forwards are not important? hell no, our forwards do exactly what they are supposed to do, sabo is a huge threat in the air, espy is incredibly creative and has some serious power, and findley is fast and dangerous. they draw attention away from the midfield were javi, will, kyle, ned, andy, and even jean are all dangerous from 20-30 yards out. throw in our big bodies in the back that score on set pieces and we are a fairly complete team in the attack.

    forward analysis = lies, damned lies, and statistics.
     
  8. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

    Jun 20, 2007
    Home
    Maybe one reason you didn't make it as a statistician is your inability or unwillingness to look beyond a single observation to understand a trend. :p
     
  9. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    touche.

    another BIG thing to point out is that all 4 of them dont get similar time, competition, environments, etc. Like I stated before, I think Findley really benefits from being on the pitch at certain times. Am I saying it has nothing to do with his skill? of course not... but these stats make it look like he and Sabo are WAY better than Fabian which simply isnt true.

    For the stats to really give us an insight, we would need to play each game 4 or 5 times with everything outside of their plays happening the exact same... in other words, something impossible.

    So we work with what information/data we have, but in all honesty it shouldnt be such a huge thing (no offense CCB, I love this as much as anyone else, I look forward to it).

    Stats are cool, but they are far from telling the whole story. A vital piece, but a piece nonetheless
     
  10. Steve H.

    Steve H. Member

    Aug 6, 2003
    Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    Slovenia
    I think the sample sizes may be too small for really meaningful analysis, anyway. Findley came on for Espindola for the second half of the home game against New England, and then RSL scored 4 goals in that half. That half accounted for 11 percent of our total goals this season.

    Also, a disproportionate number of goals come in the last 15 minutes. (I believe league-wide, it's 96 goals out of a total of 407.) So late substitutions are likely to end up with better numbers.
     
  11. ccb1212

    ccb1212 Member

    Sep 5, 2006
    West Jordan,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree with everyone's statements above. The stats don't tell the whole story. I was thinking of reasons why Espy's stats might not look as good as the others. One of the things that I thought of was that Espy seems to play more on the road than at home. We do score (as well as every other team in the league I would guess) more at home than on the road. Like I said in my original post, it was a pretty basic comparison but I still think there is value to be found.
     
  12. rimshot15

    rimshot15 Member

    Jun 11, 2009
    Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think the numbers about espindola are accurate about his value. He is a different type of forward than saborio and findley. As we've seen, fabi likes to get out wide and go one on one with defenders and distribute rather than just get on the end of through balls and go back to the goal. I think we saw last year when we were playing him on the wing. He likes to roam around and go for the ball on defense. Again it's hard to compare these guys when you look on paper because they bring very different styles to the game (saborio holding the ball, back to the goal, and findley on the end of through passes, fabi getting wide and going one on one). I think it works out great. I think we all think they are good forwards (not campos so much).
     
  13. Steve H.

    Steve H. Member

    Aug 6, 2003
    Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    Slovenia
    The point of the statistical analysis, though, is to figure out which is better. Maybe , Espindola likes to get out wide and go one on one and distribute, but does that help the team more? If his going out wide ends up with RSL scoring less often, then maybe he shouldn't do that.

    The only way to figure that out is to look at numbers. The trick is figuring out what statistics are the most reliable and helpful, and to make sure they are being used appropriately (maybe the standard should be shots on goal, not actual goals; maybe they should be limited to certain game situations, such as the first half, or only when the game is close; maybe you can't look at each player in isolation, but rather certain combinations of players, including both strikers and midfielders; etc.).
     
  14. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think a couple stats would be interesting.
    Like steve said, which combination of forwards produce the most goals.
    Which combination of forwards produces the most assists (between the two of them)
    How many goals each scores/is a part of in certain blocks of the game (minutes 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, etc)
     
  15. aosthed

    aosthed Member

    Jul 16, 2004
    40º30' N 111º52' W
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    Perhaps...

    #2 could be: Findley benefits from the work put in before he comes on.

    I know Americans ae infatuated with statistics and in most of the relatively static / choreographed American sports they help... but in soccer there is so much that goes on in the game that you simply can't account for with stats.

    Espindola often paves the way for the replacement that comes on after him. He wears out defenders. He frustrates defenders.

    He's also been a little unlucky not to score a couple more goals the last 2 games so his "stats" would look that much better. The point is, stats CAN help give insight but often there is much more too it.

    For example, in our boys team recently we had one boy score 6 goals in 3 games but every goal came as the result of hard work done by our striker and the other boy was in the right place to benefit (picking up rebounds and loose balls from the defenders after the striker pressured it away from them). The point isn't that the boy who scored the goals didn't do a good job, but he didn't do it alone.
     
  16. dstorm

    dstorm Member

    Apr 13, 2007
    Salt Lake City
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just want to chime in and say that I think we have an awesome forward tandem. The pick up of Saborio has exceeded my expectations.

    If we can get Findley out of his funk.....and if we could somehow keep this same group - I'd be very happy.

    Maybe an upgrade for Campos would be my only request. But I don't think we keep Findley next year. And despite his recent funk, it's difficult to replace his speed and the impact that can have on a game.

    I still think Findley is a good long term investment.
     
  17. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    we got him and sturgis (now a seattle starter) for Chris Klein... yeah, we did good on that trade
     
  18. RSL Donk

    RSL Donk BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Aug 24, 2006
    Utah
    Club:
    Glasgow Rangers FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    Yeah, until he gets hurt for the season again.

    I don't think we keep Findley, he goes to Europe after the season. MLS can't compete against European money. What MLS calls a DP salary, the rest of the world calls minimum wage.
     
  19. georg

    georg Member+

    May 25, 2009
    Parowan, Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fact is: The strick force for RSL is far from being championship caliber, without Saborio and Espindola RSL is lost as far as forwards go.
    I wish Findle luck in europe! and I wish Campos luck wherever. but If RSL wants to continue as a top flight team Espindola and Saborio are going to need some help next season.
    Analize all we want but this team needs another high caliper striker.
     
  20. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's really going to be an interesting off season.
    Do we keep Sabo?
    Do we keep findley?
    DO we have the $$ to do both... or either?
    Who does Garth have on the radar that could fill in?

    Remember, Garth found us Sabo... I have faith he can do it again
     
  21. PattysCow

    PattysCow Member+

    Apr 4, 2010
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    If we keep Sabo. I am genuinley worried about this.
     
  22. goobx1

    goobx1 Member+

    Jul 9, 2007
    Salt Lake
    True. But with the current track record of Garson in finding talent excitement should be the mind set, not trepidation.
     
  23. georg

    georg Member+

    May 25, 2009
    Parowan, Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With the total lack of production RSL is getting from both Findley and Campos I would like to see Jason put Will Johnson up top as a first substitution for either Sabo or Espindola. Johnson has in the past said he wanted to get back to what he considers his natural place as a attacking player. Really what could it hurt? I think we are deep enough at mid to allow this type of experiment.
     
  24. elrey

    elrey Member

    Feb 6, 2009
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake

    Yeah I would not mind seeing Johnson on top with Sabo.
     
  25. PattysCow

    PattysCow Member+

    Apr 4, 2010
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    It wouldnt hurt to try it. With Gonzo and Williams our midfield depth should be fine.
     

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