WWC19 USA v FRANCE Quarterfinal, pre/pbp/post

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by McSkillz, Jun 24, 2019.

  1. jackdoggy

    jackdoggy Member+

    May 16, 2014
    Big D
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I brought my amateur meteorologist license with me to France - - on Sunday they were predicting 100+ all this week, now they’ve backed off about 10 degrees. Currently, hi on Friday of 92, at the 9:00 kick 82. May be appropriate for someone to copy/paste the applicable water break rule i this thread ( I can’t do it on this d*mn fancy phone)
     
  2. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    With all the so called "science" that is behind forecasting it is still very much guesswork and mostly bad guesswork at that. I think we would be better off with Granny's cricket making all the forecasts.
     
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  3. orcrist

    orcrist Member+

    Jun 11, 2005
    Bay Area, California, USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is so ignorant I don't even know where to start...
     
  4. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    This is so unkind I don't even know where to start... @FanOfFutbol's remark was meant in a good spirit, I guess: no need to jump on him this way, really.
     
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  5. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    Do not worry I have quite thick skin. Also the ignore function works well to prevent me from reading, or even seeing, content posted by the cretins here. He is now ignored but thank you for the defense.
     
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  6. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    At least, mostly, usually the threads do not degenerate into "Fight Club" or we could not talk about them. :devilish::eek::D:p
     
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  7. orcrist

    orcrist Member+

    Jun 11, 2005
    Bay Area, California, USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess it was a little harsh, but she/he is being unkind to countless dedicated professionals who study actual science to do weather forecasting which is relied on to save lives these days. It also contributes to this ugly anti-science attitude which is so prevalent, doing real harm to our society because of the literal ignorance of climate science.
    So, yeah, I got my back up a bit. Stop spreading harmful BS.
     
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  8. luvdagame

    luvdagame Member+

    Jul 6, 2000
    this is dangerous thinking.

    ellis must plan for the possibility of a switch up.

    the spanish weren’t known for being physical either, and they almost pulled it off with a weaker team than france has.

    pragmatism has entered the women’s game.
     
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  9. jackdoggy

    jackdoggy Member+

    May 16, 2014
    Big D
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    5 Gin and Tonics in this afternoon and I’m kinda confused by the last two posts. But I’ve got a Masters from the University of Confused:D:D:D
     
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  10. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What nonsense.

    Most people realize that weather forecasting, especially a week, or 10 days out, is pretty fluid. Will a front move in such a way, will it form at all? Will it interact with other fronts in the expected way?

    Further, there is always some unpredictability. They are working off percentages & historical data. Atmospheric conditions like this produce X weather Y % of the time.

    As one gets closer to the day in question, reliability increases. Markedly.

    Short answer is 7 day forecasts are 80% correct. 5 days at 90%. 10+ day only 50%.

    https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/

    24-48 are much more accurate that 5 days.

    If the Thur temp forecast is off by more than 4 degrees, I will eat my hat.

    Grandma indeed.
     
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  11. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    Two things. weather forecasting is nothing but applied math at its lowest form. Statistics are really all it uses and the science behind the stats is inherently flawed as it says that you can predict the behavior of an inherently chaotic system. You cannot all you can do is guess and make those guesses conform to the past.

    It ignores the fluid physics simply because it is too complicated. My problem with weather forecasting is that they always state their guess as fact or the present it as "probability" without any real seeming understanding of what "probability" means. Unless you have at least a fair understanding of the underlying physics then probability is meaningless. For most people they think that something as simple as the flipping of a coin is predictable based on statistics. It is not. ex. If you have a fair coin and you flip it 50 times and it comes up heads all 50 times most people think that there is a high probability that the next flip will be tails or that having been heads 50 times in a row means that the next flip will be heads. Neither is even remotely true. The next flip, like all 50 before, has a 50/50 chance of heads or tails.

    But that is really not needed to rebut those people choosing to slap me around for one post. Clearly that offending post was intended to be funny, in may have failed but that was clearly the intention. If it were otherwise I would not have included the "Beverly Hillbillies" reference.
     
  12. BrooklynSoccer

    BrooklynSoccer Member+

    Jan 22, 2008
    I may like to see the US start the "2nd team" forward combination of:

    Press, Lloyd and Pugh.

    The second team has fresh legs, obviously talented and the French will not be expecting this.

    Second half subs of Pinoe and Morgan.
     
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  13. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    IIRC, Ellis started the same XI in the 3rd group game & the first KO game, and then made 3 changes for the QF.

    OUT: Abby, Pinoe, Holiday
    IN: A-Rod, O'Hara, Brian.

    2 of the changes were forced as Pinoe & Holiday were suspended.

    For the SF & Final, Ellis played the same lineup. Pinoe & Holiday reclaimed there spots, but Brian started instead of Abby from there on in.

    Point being, I think big changes are unlikely. Maybe 1 or two. Ertz to D to make room for Horan? Lloyd up top? Heath to MF to make room for Press? IDK.

    I think Horan plays somehow.
     
  14. BrooklynSoccer

    BrooklynSoccer Member+

    Jan 22, 2008
    Perhaps there won't be many changes, but I don't think it will have anything to do with precedent set at the last WC.

    A few factors making this year different - our schedule is more compressed and our starters are older. The forwards looked completely gassed by minute 60 and Morgan has a knock.
     
  15. Timon19

    Timon19 Member+

    Jun 2, 2007
    Akron, OH
    #65 Timon19, Jun 26, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2019
    I love meteorology. But I also have a sense of humor about it. I live in a place that experiences the vagaries produced by living near the largest supply of fresh water in the world and is a complex of inland freshwater seas. Forecasting is often wrong in the details, BECAUSE IT'S HARD. And it's ok to poke fun at it. It used to be a pastime to do so. Our own local meteorologists have some of the best humor about their own profession as anyone. You might learn from them.

    Meteorology also != climate science.

    They are related disciplines, but are necessarily quite different and study different things. Conflating the two is a bad idea.
     
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  16. Timon19

    Timon19 Member+

    Jun 2, 2007
    Akron, OH
    The layman is especially terrible at two semi-related things: risk assessment and understanding probability.
     
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  17. Semblance17

    Semblance17 Member+

    Apr 27, 2013
    Lighthouse Point, FL
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nice! That's my alma mater. I kept going 'till I got my Doctorate.
     
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  18. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    May 4, 2002
    They also do not understand the difference between what a small difference can make and how in some cases you can have a small change in some condition as a system develops and it changes cloudy into rain and with the same starting point a slightly different small change can change that cloudy into a major snow storm (OK not at this time of year in most of the populated northern hemisphere ;) ) but you get the point. It is called by some a threshold event or a cliff-trip. (You trip over that little bump and you fall off the cliff)

    Most people, even mathematicians, want to pretend to understand chaos but they cannot. Even those of us that have worked with inherently unpredictable chaotic systems like weather or group dynamics or just about any very large even a little bit unstable system can ever explain exactly why things are so unpredictable. (Asimov's psycho-history is a good example of what sounds good but cannot work) All people working with the complex systems can do is guess and hope they are close enough that no one gets hurt because of the unpredictable.
     
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  19. Semblance17

    Semblance17 Member+

    Apr 27, 2013
    Lighthouse Point, FL
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The first rule of Film Club is: You do not talk about Film Club.
    The second rule of Film Club is: You do not talk about Film Club...
     
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  20. Timon19

    Timon19 Member+

    Jun 2, 2007
    Akron, OH
    That's NE Ohio from November through April.
     
  21. Semblance17

    Semblance17 Member+

    Apr 27, 2013
    Lighthouse Point, FL
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    Don't worry about the heat. Tobin Heath will bring the chill.
     
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  22. Semblance17

    Semblance17 Member+

    Apr 27, 2013
    Lighthouse Point, FL
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    @McSkillz this thread is probably the most important one you've ever created. Why risk demoting it by analyzing a tweet storm that isn't worth the time it takes to read it*? :)

    *In fairness, the same can be said of most of my posts on this forum.
     
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  23. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The French hate physical play. I will be happy to eat my words Friday, if I'm mistaken.
    I'd be really interested to hear the opinions of any French fans.
    Having said that, I'm sure that Ellis and company will have the team prepared for all scenarios.
     
  24. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dang, you all are smart! They denied my application.
     
  25. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    I just realized this is @Semblance17. Your sudden change of avatar confused me*! :x3:

    * Maybe I come from University of Confused too? Not sure, I am too much confused!
     
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