Some of you will remember a thread we had shortly after the '02 World Cup, where we began discussing how different the '06 roster would be. At the time, I posted that a guess at how many players would be back of the 25 from Japan/Korea (I'm including Armas and Vanney, who injured themselves out of slots at a late date). My over/under was 16. Until the Gold Cup roster was announced, I would have assumed I was too high. Now, I'm not so sure. Definitely Out: Regis (retirement) Stewart (retirement) Moore (retirement) Llamosa (retirement) That's only four guys who clearly aren't even hoping for a look. Hanging by a thread: Meola (no club) Friedel (self-selected out) Agoos (no caps recently) On the Veteran Bubble: Mathis (no gold cup callup could be a very bad sign) Sanneh (Gold Cup callup) Armas (Gold Cup callup) Vanney (Gold Cup callup) Jones (no Gold Cup, but called in pretty recently, with results) Berhalter (no Gold Cup, but helping in the Hex) Probably getting a roster slot, barring injury: Keller Pope Hejduk (yes, I think he's off the bubble) Cherundolo Reyna Mastroeni Beasley O'Brien Lewis McBride Wolff Donovan Between the Bubble and my probables, that's about 18 slots, barring injuries. That leaves five spots. Two of those are goalies, a discussion we can put to the side for the moment. So that's three of what I'll call "open" slots. Based on Arena's lineups, I'll give one of these to Eddie Johnson, one to Gibbs, and one to Dempsey. Everyone else's favorites need to beat out one of those six bubble players, or one of my weaker "probables," like Wolff. That sets up "battles for slots" in my mind, along the lines of: Noonan OR Mathis Ralston OR Jones Onyewu OR Berhalter Zavagnin OR Armas Convey OR Vanney Adu OR Sanneh Yes, I had to work Freddy in. But this should demonstrate the uphill battle faced by Twellman, Ching, Casey, Gaven, Davis, Olsen, Burciaga, Albright, Marshall, Spector, Conrad ... I didn't even mention them in this discussion. Share your thoughts.
Interesting analysis. The one quibble I would make would be with your comments concerning Ching/Casey. I have little doubt that one of these two (or some other forward we are not discussing) will be on the 23 man roster -- too few forwards otherwise. The only others you list are Wolff, Johnson and McBride and I have little doubt BA will bring at least 4 to Germany. Additionally, after his start against Mexico, I think that Gooch almost has to be elevated to the probable category as the only thing preventing him from playing recently has been nagging injuries -- not BA. I would think he is well above Vanney, Berhalter and Sanneh in terms of defenders likely to go to Germany.
mathis vs noonan is a good battle. mathis' experience is the big factor here, but he hasn't done much lately (true he's on a bad team...but still). i'd play noonan (as bruce is doing) in the gold cup...if he shows promise, bring him. if not, then mathis for his experience. gooch vs berhalter seems like an easy choice - bring gooch zav has done ok in qualifying, but if armas has a good showing in the gold cup, bring him (again , because of experience) ralston is terrible. i still think that bruce should have called up gaven to give him some experience, and then take him over ralston. but again, cobi's experience and good showing for club should make him the choice over ralston adu or sanneh... how bout neither, and bring someone else. neither of them have impressed on their clubs...bring another forward instead. convey or vanney...again neither.. instead of adu/sanneh/ and convey/vanney, bring ching and pope. and please, leave wolff home too.
I think your "probables" list looks good. That's 12. But the "bubble" list.... I'd say only Vanney has a good shot, maybe Berhalter. More likely, all of your bubbles will either be named to the WC alternates list or omitted entirely. The only way most of those bubbles see Germany is under a nightmare injury scenerio. So realistically you have around 12-14 returnees. As to your "battles" list: Noonan OR Mathis Ralston OR Jones Onyewu OR Berhalter Zavagnin OR Armas Convey OR Vanney Adu OR Sanneh I'd say -Noonan, Ralston, and Onyewu are all way ahead. So much so that there is no battle there. -Zavagnin and Armas might be fighting for the backup destroyer d-mid slot but they might both be edged off the squad by other players (JOB, Reyna, Dempsey). -I don't think Convey is fighting Vanney for a slot even though they can both play LB. They really get used by Arena in different circumstances. - Adu is fighting himself to prove that he can compete for a spot. Sanneh gets a chance in the GC to show that he should be considered as a challenge to backup Cher. There's no either/or here.
If convey returns to Reading and produces this year, he'll slip into the probable list, a versatile player BA knows and trusts coming off a year at a decent level of competition. If he doesn't break into a regular starting role, eh'll be out of the picture. So I think he's competing with andy hughes or hunt or morgan for a roster spot, as much as anything. Is Sanneh playing well enough in MLS to be a factor for the WC roster? I thought he was our best player in 02, but i can't see him surviving a full year intact, much less producing at his best.
flexibility in being able to handle multiple roles will help you get on the final 23... noonan as forward and mid gives him a huge leg up on making the squad.... and hejduk as right back or left back really helps himself... the other aspect I'd look at is mobility, and having it puts you higher up on arena's list... I don't see mathis or armas or sanneh making the final 23, although they could be on the emergency list if a guy goes down... the older you are, with another years wear and tear, I think lessens your chance... and I think there will be a big name left off the squad, could be reyna, could be mcbride, could be pope....eventually time catches up and it's NOT your turn
I agree with most everything in your post here--but I question whether Arena really has learned the Agoos lesson. Time will tell. It bears repeating that injuries are a major factor. I believe the biggest difference between 1998 and 2002 was our health and our depth. If we walk into the World Cup with no EJ, no Mastro, no Gibbs, etc. like against CR and Panama, I think making the second round will be a huge achievement. We have the depth to do well in CONCACAF WCQ, but I'm not sure we do at the WC Finals.
hopefully, if we saw the panama semi final match and the panama hex match, we saw arena learning from his mistakes... I take his naming gibbs and onyewu in the usa today interview as his primary set of center backs, to indicate he's NOT married to old guys...IF there are capable replacements...
Well, he did play Cobi in the semi match and the guy saved his bacon, so I'm not sure the lesson of that match is never go with the vets who are at the end of their International career. I don't think Arena's married to the old guys per se, but Reyna clearly wasn't fit for the Mexico match and Arena stuck with him. That's why I just don't know if he's going to make the right decision on the old timers in Germany.
Terrible or not, Ralston has started in three straight WCQs. Obviously using Beasley and Mastroeni in 2002 showed Bruce will adapt, but his current preference is Ralston.