I believe I read this week that qualifying schedule would be drawn in November. My question is who is going to get seeded where? Obviously you have the US and Mexico that will be in the top seedings (so that they cannot meet in the semifinal round). What format is going to be used for seedings? 1-3, 4-6, 7-12? And will the seedings be worked out for round 2 before or after the home and away elimination round (assuming that one happens again). Who will the top 6 seeds be? US and Mexico are locks (top 3) Costa Rica advanced this Gold Cup and made the World Cup (top 3?) Panama made the hex, made the previous Gold Cup final, and advanced in this Gold Cup (top 6) Guatemala made the hex, advanced this Gold Cup (top 6) T&T went to the World Cup, but lost out in the first round in the Gold Cup (Borderline top 6 or 7-12) Canada made the semis this Gold Cup, last in their semifinal bracket last WCQ (7-12) Honduras advanced this Gold Cup, 3rd in their semifinal bracket last WCQ (7-12) I'm not sure of the format or the seeding formula, but I would find it hard for anybody that made the last Hex other than T&T to not be seeded for World Cup Qualifying. I could only see Canada or Honduras beating them out. So how is this going to work and who is going to get seeded where? I'm pretty much thinking that if there is a (7-12) pot that is going to be awful if two of the teams from above both go into the same bracket.
I have read that CONCACAF will use the same format as last time around. If this is true, the placing of teams into the pots will be pretty straightforward. Pot A-Automatic Qualifiers to World Cup(Top 3 in Hex) U.S., Mexico and Costa Rica Pot B-Teams that made Hex that finished 4th-6th T&T, Guatemala Panama Pot C-Teams that were knocked out in Semifinal round Jamaica, El Salvador, Canada, Honduras, St. Vincent and St. Kitts The rest of the teams will prolly be drawn against each other in a first round home and home series with the winners meeting a team from Pot A, B or C in another home and home series. So barring upsets each semifinal group would contain one team from pot A, one from pot B and two from pot C. It is left to those teams that didn't make the semis last time to cause an "upset" in order to be seeded for future Qualifiers. Last time the first round teams were split up based on Fifa rankings. The top half went into one pot and the bottom half went into the other.
Its funny, but the 2 teams I would most want to avoid aren't in pot b but pot c. Ouch if you get Canada and Honduras like Costa Rica did on 06.
If the US or Mexico ends up in a semifinal group of Panama, Canada, and Honduras, either is in serious jeopardy of not even seeing the hex.
That was brutal CR, Canada, Honduras and Guatemala in one group, playing in that group was harder than playing the Hex.
Hopefully (but of course they won't), they'll separate the top 3 from the bottom 3 using FIFA rankings or GC performance or something. If they don't, expect another joke group àla T&T/Mex 2006.
The World Cup Qualifying group draw will be the Sunday after Thanksgiving here in the States. November 25th I saw on the FIFA website in their World Cup Section. It was suppose to be the 23rd right after Thanksgiving, but I guess they decided to push it back two days. Well I can't wait for that to happen.
Mainly cause Jamaica and Honduras did not show up in the Semifinal Round. Based on whatever the draw turns out to be, I think the knives are out for the B-pot teams when it comes to who makes the Hex. Panama and Guatemala are flawed and the only way T&T makes the Hex in 2009 with the guys at Gold Cup is if they draw St. Vincent & St. Kitts again. That is a 2-in-30 chance, or 6.7%. We always think Jack Warner rigs things, but he can't keep an argument for legitimacy if his national team wins a 6.7% chance two cycles in a row.
Your succinct and accurate description of the qualifying process leads me to conclude, once again, that our qualifying system is fundamentally broken.
Lets not forget Mexico mysteriously losing its second leg qualifying game to Trinidad, and then mysteriously getting seeded over Holland and the Czech Republic in WC 2006. Anyway, the three shoe-ins should be the USA, Mexico, and Canada, and a toss-up between Costa Rica(not a shoe-in like before), Panama, and Honduras.