World Cup Pools?

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: Fans & Travel' started by Steamer, Dec 3, 2009.

  1. Steamer

    Steamer New Member

    Jan 30, 2006
    We have about 8 guys in our office, who are wanting to do something for the World Cup.

    Other than just picking teams out of a hat, does anyone have any ideas for a good office pool?
     
  2. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Office Pools?

    When you get to the knockout rounds you can do an NCAA tournament style pool.

    I'm sure there will be websites with pools that you just sign up for.
     
  3. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    With a group of teams like this a good idea is a confidence pool, where you rate all 32 teams in order of how you think they will do.
    So if you rate a team first, you will multiply their points by 32. If you rate a team 2nd, you multiply their points by 31. If you rank a team last (32nd) you multiply their points by 1.

    So at the end of the WC lets say for argument's sake that Cote'd'Ivoire wins the whole enchilada over Brazil in the final England 3rd, Germany 4th.
    So Cote d'Ivoire has won 4 knockout round games (12 points) plus say 7 points in group for a total of 19 points.
    If you ranked them 1st then you multiply their 19 points x 32 = 608.
    If you ranked them 10th then you multiply their 19 points x 23 = 437.
    Let's say that France really sucks this time out and manages only 2 draws and a loss going out in group stages with a whimper. So they score 2 points.
    If you ranked France 10th you score a whopping 2 points x 23 = 46 points. (So basically you have wasted a high multiplier (23) on a poor outcome.
    However if you correctly predicted their demise and ranked them 25th then your multiplier is 8 x 2 points = 16 points.
    It is better to be close to the right order of finish because then your high multipliers will be used on high point teams and your low multipliers on low point teams.

    Everybody adds up their scores and high entry wins the pot, Or you can have second third or more prizes.
     
  4. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    Another way to do the confidence pools is to list the 48 group stage games with opponents etc.
    You choose either team to win or a draw. Then you assign a confidence rank to that game's outcome. (from 1 to 48)
    If you bet win and the game ends in a win for your team then you get 3 points.
    If the game ends in a draw you get 0 points.
    If the opponent wins you score -3 points.

    If you choose a draw and the game ends in a draw, you score 2 points, if either team wins you score 0.
    Then you multiply your score for that game by your confidence wager for that game. Obviously, you use the higher wagers on games you feel most confident about, and the lower wagers on the games that you feel less sure about. For the first round there are 48 bets. one bet worth 48x, 47x, 46x etc down to the final bet worth only 1x the points from the game.

    Also, it is more risky to bet on a win but more rewarding.
    If you bet your 48 multiplier on Italy over New Zealand thinking it a sure thing, and lo and behold New Zealand pulls out a famous 1-0 upset then you score -3 x 48 = -144. That is a big hole to dig out of.


    There would be a prize for top entry in the Group Stage, but for the grand prize we aren't finished yet.

    As each fixture for the knockout rounds gets announced, You then bet on those games.
    In knockout stages there is a winner or loser in each game so there is no betting on draws.
    Instead a clear cut victory is plus 3, a penalty or extra time victory is 1 point, an extra time or penalty loss is -1 point, and a clear cut loss is -3 points.

    In the round of 16 there are 8 games, So there are 8 bets
    48 pts 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, and 6 points.

    In the round of 8 there are 4 games and 4 bets
    48, 36, 24, 12 pts

    In the Semi finals there are two bets 48 pts and 24 pts.

    In the final there is a 48 point bet and a 24 point bet in the 3rd place game.

    You could raise the bets for the later rounds.Like make the final worth a 144 multiplier instead of 48. Make the 3rd place game 72.
    Make the semi finals 96 and 48.

    Whatever you decide, make sure all of your entrants know the rules from the outset.

    Add up all of your points.
    Give prizes for 1st 2nd 3rd or more depending on the number of entries.

    I like this idea, especially in the group stages where it will take some thought to go through all 48 games.
    You could make it $10 per entry. Donate a percentage of the proceeds to Right To Play. People could enter as many times as they like.
    With 48 games and 48 different bet values plus the option of win or draw are
    a lot of possible variations, it is unlikely you would have duplicate entries. Everybody has their favorite teams, sentimental favorites, grudges, etc.
    Everybody has different amounts of confidence in different outcomes. The odds of getting duplicate entries are very unlikely.

    The tension that mounts as each game passes will be palpable. Some will have high bets on early games and go out to an early lead, but other people with high bets on later games may start catching up.
     
  5. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    Another way to do it is to still have 48 bets, but instead of having their values from 1 to 48, have a series of round number bets.

    16 - 1 point bets
    16 - 2 point bets
    8 - 5 point bets
    4 - 10 point bets
    2 - 20 point bets
    2 - 50 point bets
    48 bets

    or you can limit the betting to each group
    1 - 1 point bet
    1 - 2 point bet
    1 - 5 point bet
    1 - 10 point bet
    1 - 20 point bet
    1 - 50 point bet
    in each group.
     
  6. MountainHawk

    MountainHawk New Member

    Sep 7, 2005
    Salem, MA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Office Pools?

    Pick 8 teams each. There can be overlap, obviously.

    Rank the teams somehow. Rank them 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-28, and 29-32.

    You get 1 point for each win from the 1-8 group, 2 points for 9-16, 3 points for 17-24, 5 points for 25-28, and 7 points for 29-32.

    So picking North Korea if they do get a win will get you as many points as picking Brazil and having them win the championship. Makes for some interesting strategy on picking the top teams or middle of the road teams.
     
  7. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    Wow! That sounds challenging!
    So do you pick the teams yourself? Or is there a draft?

    So if I pick North Korea and they get 1 win, but finish in the last 4 teams I get 7 points?

    How many times has 1 of the last 4 teams gotten a win?
    In 2002 the last 7 teams didn't get a win. In fact the last 3 didn't even get a draw.
    The teams from 12th to 25th got 1 win each.
    6th through 11 had 2 wins each.
    So there doesn't appear to be any point in taking a 29th to 32nd team. Picking the 25th place team right could be a bonus!!!

    In 1998
    teams 23 thru 32 didn't get a win.
    26 thru 30 got 1 draw each.
    13th thru 22nd all got 1 win except for #16 with 3 draws and # 19 also with 3 draws. Chile advance with 3 draws, Belgium missed with 3 draws.
    8 thru 12 had 2 wins each.
    4 thru 7 had 3 wins each.
    So in 1998 the best you could have done with a low pick was the 22nd place team for 3 points


    Still, I like the concept of your pool. Actually you could run it as a draft, or names out of the hat. But after drawing the names, each person would have to assign a placing to each team. So there would be skill as well as luck of the draw. I would be tempted to divide the placings differently. Do it by round.
    1-4,
    5-8,
    8-16,
    17-32.
    Then change the multipliers, and take all points including draws.

    For instance
    1st-4th multiply points x 3 (63 points to say 33 points)
    5th-8th multiply points x 4 (about 44 points down to about 28)
    9th - 16th multiply points x 5 (35 points down to about 15)
    17th - 32nd multiply points x 6 (24 points down to 0)

    Maybe change the multipliers so that the last division (17th to 32nd) is say
    16 x (max around 64)
    3rd group at 9 x (max around 63)
    2nd group at 6 x (max around 66)
    1st division at 3 x (max 63)

    So logically, you might want to pick a team that you feel will finish 3rd in group with 4 points, Say Greece with a win and a draw behind Argentina and Nigeria, and correctly place them for (4 x 16= 64 points.) Whereas, picking Brazil and ranking them top 4 but they finish 3rd with say 5 wins no draws (Croatia 98) you would score only 45 points. (3 x 15) Skill of placement plus luck of draw. This would make for a very elegant pool.

    The teams MUST finish in that bracket to score the points? Yes???
    What happens if they finish higher or lower than you predict?
    If you pick Brazil and place them in the top 8 but they get knocked out in the group of 16 do you get ANY points? Isn't this the skill portion of the pool? Placing the team correctly in its level.

    I love the idea of the pool especially when working with smaller groups of entries, like 8 people. The guys could have 4 picks each in a draft, or each person could randomly select their 8 teams (with overlap).

    Even if you got 4 crappy teams out of the hat you could still win by placing them correctly, if the other guys misplaced their teams.
    I would do it in a draft style if you only have 8 people. Pick a night in late may, sit down in someone's basement or your favorite sports bar with buxom waitresses and do the draft.
    After the draft, you have until June 10th to place your teams. Then, let the chips fall.

    As with ANY pool, (I have been running an NHL playoff player draft pool for more than 10 years), the object of the pool is to raise a little money for charity, (rake off the top) and almost as importantly to get people to involve themselves more deeply into the event. They pay more attention to the scores every day. They feel more connected. They watch more games. They enjoy the tournament more. They live more fully. THAT is the true measure of a pool for me. Does it make people pay attention to the event?





    The other question is what about in the knockout stages where a team gets a win on penalty kicks? Does that count as a win?
     
  8. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    When I do my NHL playoff pool it is based on players goals + assists. So you have to pick the top players, but also weigh that agains how far you think their team will go in the playoffs. I make 12 boxes, with 8 players in each box, and you have to pick only 1 from each box.

    I don't see how you could do this for the World Cup, because scoring is so low.

    I suppose you could award points for other things.
    1 point for games played in.
    3 points for wins
    1 point for draws
    (n) points for goals scored in play
    (x) points for spot-kick goals scored in aet penalty shootouts
    minus (y) points for yellow card
    minus 2 X (z) points for red card

    This might work. Any ideas on how to make a player pool work?
    It has to hopefully be interesting down to the final game, for at least a few of the entrants. You will always lose a few people along the way, but as you come down to the wire there are always 5 or 6 entries vying for the top money paying places.
     
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Office Pools?

    Voros did 10,000 simulations at http://vorosmccracken.com/2010wcsimresult120409.html. You could have everybody pick whether every team will finish First, Second, Third, Fourth, a Quarterfinal loser, a Round of 16 loser, or go out in the Group Stage. Your score if correct for each team would be 10,000 divided by the number of simulations it happened in. Five outcomes happened in none of the simulations, Algeria first, Korea DPR first, New Zealand first, New Zealand second, and New Zealand fourth. If by some miracle somebody correctly one of these outcomes I would give 20,000 points. I couldn't divide by the number of simulations it happened in because division by 0 is undefined. This would be relatively simple to score because for the Group Stage I would evaluated how people did predicting the 16 teams that got eliminated but I wouldn't have to evaluate result predictions for all 48 games.
     
  10. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    Re: Office Pools?

    *Eyes glaze over*
     
  11. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Re: Office Pools?

    The beauty of a well designed pool, is that it connects the poolsters more deeply with the game. My job is to make it easy for them (even if it is complicated for me) My job is to keep them interested in the finals from start to finish. So I want a pool that meets those aims.

    In Canada, where the World Cup is not as big a deal as in other countries, my purpose for having a pool would be to get people involved in following the progress of the finals that normally would not. If you get people to actually watch the games, so much the better.

    So I want a pool that maintains interest throughout ALL STAGES of the tournament. A pool that has my entrants turning to the World Cup pages of the newspaper before anything else in the morning.

    I am talking about people who don't know the difference between a 4-4-2 and a throw-in. If they can get involved in watching the World Cup, they will begin to see what the REST OF THE WORLD is so excited about. They will put their kids in soccer, and 20 years from now who knows, Canada might be competitive in soccer too because people are more connected with the sport.
     
  12. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    Re: Office Pools?

    Oh I agree, just Evan's proposal was a little too mathematically intricate for me at the time I was trying to read it.
     
  13. KaChucka

    KaChucka New Member

    Dec 30, 2009
    Club:
    Millwall FC
    Re: Office Pools?

    i made a pool writer me at KaChuck@charter.net for an excel file
     
  14. KaChucka

    KaChucka New Member

    Dec 30, 2009
    Club:
    Millwall FC
    Re: Office Pools?

    i have a template for world cup office pool in Excel
     
  15. davethesave

    davethesave New Member

    Apr 14, 2008
    Toronto, ON
    WC 2010 Pool Template for fundraiser?

    so im lookin everywhere for a convenient template to use for a pool im running with my soccer team to raise money. does anyone have any idea if i can find one online anywhere?

    basically each person has to pick the teams to progress and then pick each winner in each knockout game... each correct answer gets "x" amount of points... of course the deeper rounds are worth more points..

    ive looked online but its tough trying to find a template....

    help?
     
  16. davethesave

    davethesave New Member

    Apr 14, 2008
    Toronto, ON
    ok now that i am in the correct thread...

    the other mentions of points systems and ranking are interesting.. but for fundraisering i want it to be simple... im thinking rank each team per group in the order you think they will place. correct rankin from 1-4 would get you the max points available...

    from your predictions... you then insert the team to the knockout stages and pick from there... each correct guess gets points, and as the rounds progress you get more points... example... if you pick slovenia to get to the finals, surely not many wouldve picked them to and therfore you will outpoint anyone in that particular path...

    now many of you are thinking OK BY THEN MANY PPL WILL TIE IN POINTS IN THE END... if thats the case i would force ppl to guess the total amount of goals in the tourney, and perhaps another tie break would be total amount of penalty kicks (including or not including shootouts?) ...

    anyways...

    im looking for a professional lookin template of the entire thing,,, but i fear i may have to create my own by cutting and pasting...

    this is a far more simple way to do a pool and attracts not only the die hards but the average fan who wants to fill out a bracket for the heck of it..
     
  17. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Hey Dave,
    This reply will ramble, but you need to ask these questions before you start.
    Once you decide on a method, and explain it right, people will get it.
    ------------------------
    Do you want them to pick the whole thing at the beginning? Ie they are picking their group winners and runners up, and then rd of 16, rd of 8, semi finals, 3rd place, and championship?
    They pick it all at the beginning and get points for each win by a correct team in a correct round?
    For instance if they pick Brazil to win it all, then they get a points for every Brazil win in the knockout rounds regardless of opponent?

    Say 3 points in the rd of 16
    6 points in the round of 8
    12 points in the round of 4
    9 points for the correct 3rd place winner
    24 points for the correct champion
    Don't get hung up on the values right now, lets nail down the concept first.

    So picking the champion correctly would give you their group points plus 3+6+12+24.
    Picking the runner up would give you their group points plus 3+6+12?
    Picking the 3rd place team correctly would give you their group points + 3+6+9

    Whichever teams you pick to advance out of group stages, you get their points in group play straight up point for point. Plus maybe a bonus of 6 points for correctly guessing a first place team, and 3 for a second place team. If a team you picked to advance finishes third in their group then you still get their group points but obviously they won't be worth much and you won't get any bonus points or any more points for them in future rounds.
    -------
    For the third and fourth place teams in group you don't get any points? Or should you get points for placing them correctly? 2 points for a 3rd place team and 1 point for a 4th place team.
    Or do you only count their standings point if you put them in the right place.


    For instance, If you guess the top two teams from a group, but guessed the winner to be second and the second place team to win, do you get any points because they were essentially both wrong. (although you still have the opportunity to score off them in the knockout stages.)
    If you guessed the third place team to be 4th, then you won't score any points for either 3rd or 4th place?
    ------------------------------
    A simple way to do it would be to get 4 points for guessing the correct group winner, 3 points for runner up, 2 points for 3rd place, and 1 point for last place. If the team finishes anywhere else you score zero.

    Then give 5 points for a rd of 16 win
    6 points for a rd of 8 win
    8 points for a rd of 4 win (finalists)
    7 points for a third place game win
    9 points for the championship
    That is very easy.
    ---------------------------------
    Or do you want to go to them at the end of group stages, and let them refill the knockout brackets?
     
  18. davethesave

    davethesave New Member

    Apr 14, 2008
    Toronto, ON
    hey wolf,

    no no they fill the ENTIRE bracket out prior to the worldcup commencing... so your point system and explanation of things is spot on...

    as far as the point system will go, i feel that many people filling out the bracket will not be extremely strategic with placing IE. portugal 1st, and Brazil 2nd just to score points with the correct group placings... the people will probably be more concerned with where Group "X" runner-up will end up in the first round and who they will play...

    i like the idea of giving points for placing a perfect ordered grouping.. surely we must reward someone for this guess (1st-New Zealand; 2nd-Slovakia; 3rd-Paraguay; 4th-Italy) ... those correct ordered guesses definitely deserve the points!!

    i havent figured out the point system yet, thinking that it may just be logistics that have to be ironed out... example... should i reward someone 6points for a correct 1st place team in the group, while the correct 2nd place team only gets rewarded 4points...3rd..2points...last... 1point.. ?
    or should i just make it 4-3-2-1points?

    then you can add "sidegames/challenges" like guessing the total number of goals scored in each group and award points based on range of the guess...
    so if i guess the total number of goals scored in GROUP A = 15goals.. and the actual amount is 25goals... i get 0 points... but anyone within 2 goal-range gets 5points... within 5 goal range gets 3points. all other guesses off by 6 or more goals get ZERO points... something like that...

    any sidechallenges like this will make sure that there isnt a 10way tie in points for the prize at the end...

    other sidegames? ... total amount of yellow cards/red cards in each group... ? little games like this hardly anyone can gauge what sort of numbers will come out...

    so even if your buddy Tom thinks he is the international soccer guru and believes Spain will run through everyone giving them a berth in the semis, while johnny doesnt follow soccer and is Slovenian so he puts Slovenia in the semi finals... their TOTAL GROUP GOALS and TOTAL GROUP BOOKINGS numbers will be crapshoot guesses.

    what do you think?

    your explanation was pretty spot on as to how i want to run the pool...
    and the KEY is the bracket is filled out Prior to WC play.
     
  19. wolf6656

    wolf6656 New Member

    Aug 9, 2004
    Canada
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    I do an annual NHL playoff pool every year, and as part of the pool I always have a tie-breaker question. In that way, if two people are tied at the end of the playoffs, the tie-breaker will decide who wins.
    I have never needed to use the tiebreaker. I have never even had a single duplicate entry, never mind duplicate entries that finished in the money.
    But you are right to include some form of tie-breaker, just in case.
    Yellow and Red Cards is as good a tie-breaker as anything. Group Goals, total goals, whatever. If there is enough variation in the pool(and your idea seems to allow for this), then there will not likely be duplicate entries, and if there are duplicate entries, then you deal with them.
    For instance, if two people tie for first place, then you add the first and second place prize money and split it fifty-fifty. The secret is to arrange the prizes so that even first and second place split, is more than third. Or if 2nd and 3rd place tie, then add the two prizes and split it 50-50, but the split must be more than the 4th place prize. Take 10%or so off the top for charity, before splitting the prize money.
    10+40+25+15+10
    Play up the charity aspect. Play up the "just for fun" aspect. Yes its a pool, and we want to win money, but we really just want to enjoy the tournament. The pool is just a way to sweeten the pot, or increase the interest in the tournament. The NHL playoffs lasts 2 months, and for at least the first two rounds it is anybody's game. It is only the last few rounds that separate the men from the boys,
     
  20. KaChucka

    KaChucka New Member

    Dec 30, 2009
    Club:
    Millwall FC
    Re: Office Pools?

    e-mail me KaChuck@charter.net and I'll give you a choice of 4 similar templates
     
  21. ZeekLTK

    ZeekLTK Member

    Mar 5, 2004
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    Norway
    Re: Office Pools?

    For the group stage, have them guess the rank AND the amount of points the team will have. Give them double the points if they successfully get the number of points (aka, someone might pick New Zealand to finish last with 0 points, someone else picks them last with 1 point - if NZ does finish last that still means one person will have more points than the other even though they both thought NZ would finish in the same spot).

    Also I don't understand how you can pick the knockout round before knowing who is in it. What if you have Brazil vs Spain in the final (which could happen if they both win the group) but they end up playing in the Round of Sixteen (which could happen if one gets 1st and the other gets 2nd)? Are you just screwed then?

    Seems like it's too random and won't be fun when most of the people will either have a) their teams not even make the knockout round or b) teams they picked to go far end up playing earlier (like the Brazil v Spain example).
     
  22. KaChucka

    KaChucka New Member

    Dec 30, 2009
    Club:
    Millwall FC
    Re: Office Pools?

    have you seen my template?
     
  23. Steamer

    Steamer New Member

    Jan 30, 2006
    Thanks for all the suggestions!
     
  24. ktudor27

    ktudor27 New Member

    May 1, 2010
    Re: WC 2010 Pool Template for fundraiser?

    Did you ever find a template? I want to do a fundraiser for my daughter's choir.
     
  25. andyjcmrdn

    andyjcmrdn New Member

    May 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Go to bracketman.com for a free world cup office pool calculator for microsoft excel
     

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