Do people actually think that Brazil and Argentina's fans and media would allow them to go out there and just coast because they know that their their rankings are higher? Hell no! They would be ripped apart in main stream media and social media to play elite futbol and blow out the competition on the field. IT is the weaker teams that need incentive to go out there and not bunker.
Any contrived means of splitting teams that isn't simply playing the game is just plain wrong to me. And I include the current options of fair play and drawing of lots in that too. Admittedly there has to be something, but if that something is known in advance that to me seems worse than something that only occurs afterwards if it needs to, such as drawing lots. As you say, the likelihood is minimal. Far more likely are mutually beneficial stitch-ups in match three of the groups.
This discussion is much ado about nothing. The pot a team is placed in is far more of an advantage (or disadvantage) than who benefits from a 3-way tie. Not to mention the seeding system was only decided on about 2 months ago, which is tantamount to changing the rules in the middle of the game.
The only good things about this expansion is that there will be more UEFA and Conmebol teams and we won't have the absurdity of Chile, Italy, Ukraine, Ireland, Greece etc, sitting at home while achieved-nothing-and likely-never-will football nations like Panama, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Australia and Iran have a place because of where they are on the map. Also, more knock-out matches is good. If all 16 groups are going to have one UEFA team in 2026 then I'll go out on a limb and say that 16 UEFA teams will make the round of 32.
Wait...I hear the general point, but where's the travesty in Ireland missing out in favor of everyone but Panama on your second list - all of whom actually have achieved something, winning their confederation championship? Far as I know, Ireland's never even been to the quarterfinals of the Euro.
Ireland have produced lots of good/great players and yes, they actually have achieved things in comparison to Iran, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Australia and Panama. A World Cup quarter final, and two rounds of 16-more than those five teams put together in fact! To be fair, Tunisia have won the African Cup of Nations once, but Ireland could have won that too-especially with their late eighties/early nineties team. Winning the Asian Cup? That's a piece of cake. Give me a break. Conmebol and UEFA are where the quality is-everyone knows that. Greece, well that's self-explanatory.
Ireland (and No. Irleand too) used to produce some good players but that’s all in the past. Now the money and top athletes are going to other sports for whatever reason.
I agree for the most part. Having to watch really bad teams only twice within a hostage type of television Group stage situation instead of typical three games is a solid change. Add that along with the excitement of one more do-or-die match phase of 32 to look forward to and it is something I find fantastic in 2026 and beyond.
There will be more South American, and UEFA teams. And African teams which are not bad (look at who was left out.)
Right some good teams were left out. I'm just saying no real bad teams qualified. Maybe Panama and/or Tunisia? But...meh... I can deal with only 1 or 2 bad teams, even if it's for 3 games.
And I can deal with only two matches of bad teams that might sneak in to a 48 team tourney when more teams from UEFA and South America will be on my television DVR with priority.
A Mickey Mouse cup? The AFC makes Concacaf look like a superleague. Even Lithuania are capable of winning the Asian Cup!!!
I'm not sure what your definition of "bad teams" is, but if its a loose definition (like Tunisia / Australia level) I suspect some of them will play 3 games in 2026. After all only 1 team from each group gets eliminated. And probably about 15 out of the 48 teams would fall under that definition. So about 30-35 games involving bad teams. If "bad team" is at a lower thresold - like T&T or Qatar-level then its probably only 2 games (but we have 0 now). Also WC 2026 will only have 3 more UEFA and CONMEBOL teams compared to 2014 and 2018 WCs, if the rumors about the allocations are true.
My definition is fluid and not set in stone. Meaning the teams that end up being bad in a tournament. The ones that give up multiple goals and just look plain bad. I don't have to suffer and watch them three times. They just have one game and then another game and then and so long. On to an exciting knock-out stages.
Inevitably some of them will make the next round though. So you're have to endure them for 3 games. Afterall you're talking about teams that qualify for the 32-team WC. So obviously they may also qualify for the 32 -team knockout round of a 48-team WC.
In 2026 you can get beat 4-0 and still get to the the round of 32 with a 0-0 draw with Syria or somebody. Looking forward to this scenario. But why stop there FIFA? Why not have an Asian Cup with Ireland and Lithuania in it? A European championship with Brazil and Australia? Let's invite Papua New Guinea and Spartak Moscow to the Gold Cup! Why not have Germany's women's team and Real Madrid in the Copa America!? Heck let's change the rules a little and have Italy's national volleyball team enter the African Cup of nations! Let's have Finland and Norway in the Champions league! Any other bright ideas on how to screw up international football?
If a team can lose 4-0 and maike good adjustments and win a penalty shootout then that can be cool. It all depens on the context.
Are they having the penalty shoot-outs? Cause I was thinking better goal-difference in that example: -4 as opposed to -5 but hey, it's all cool. Penalty shoot-outs will be sort of novel and exciting to be fair; ridiculous as it will be. I think they should bring back the old MLS idea of run-up shoot-outs for it. Maybe put Diana Ross in goal-I'm just brainstorming here.
Shootouts are a possibility. Not official from what I have read, but they are an option FIFA is looking into.
Hmm… well, using WC 2014 as an example, I didn’t need to watch Cameroon lose convincingly for a 3rd time because the other match from their group kicked off at the same time. So I just watched Croatia v Mexico instead. Hakuna matata. But I know you watch every WC Finals game so it’s a bit different in your case….