World Cup Expansion to 48 Teams (Update: FIFA Council Agrees 2026 Slot Allocation)

^ yeah, the allocation will be evolving. Nothing is set in stone.

Also, how well NZ did in the 2010 tournament is not entirely relevant. Teams change. Paraguay also had a good team that cycle. Four years later they were at Bolivia's level. Of course a rigorous qualifying process took care of them so we didn't have to see them at the 2014 WC in Brasil. Starting in 2026 no such tough test will exist for NZ. NZ will just qualify whether they have a decent team or a piss-poor.

 

It was my understanding that it has been discussed, but nothing has been finalized. Diggingin into it a bit I found this...

"Negotiations on how 16 extra World Cup slots will be allocated amongst FIFA's six confederations are to begin next month following the unanimous decision in Zurich to expand the tournament from 32 teams to 48."

and this from the same article posted back on the 10th of Jan...

"Following the vote in Zurich, FIFA president Gianni Infantino told the media: "No guarantees have been made about how many extra slots each confederation will receive. Some discussions have already taken place and others will take place shortly. This is one of the biggest issues facing us and a very important topic."

So it seems they had some preliminary discussions, so some of the leaked info could of come from this preliminary meeting, but the true negotiations are starting in Feb.

1.5 seems fair to me for OFC.

 

New Zealand will qualify by beating out the weaker teams in its Confed, just like the 6 or 7 CONMEBOL teams will advance by beating out Bolivia, Venezuela and 1 or 2 more of the weakest CONMEBOL teams.

 

But the weakest Conmebol team is still better than New Zealand, let alone the other OFC teams which finish below them in qualification.

 

This is irrelevant... they are in different confeds.

1 Confed has 10 with a potential 6 - 7 spots allocated to them. The other Confed has 11 with 1 or 1.5 potential spots allocated to them. CONMEBOL gets more becasue they are better. If CONMEBOL wants more then 6 or 7 spots they shouldn't be taking it from OFC.

1 spot is fair for OFC, so is 1.5.

 

Except you know that isn't a valid analogy since there exists other teams in CONMEBOL to replace a traditionally good team if they're having a bad cycle. When Paraguay has a bad cycle they won't in the top 6 or 7 of CONMEBOL. OFC is a special case because there is only 1 team with the potential to be (somewhat) competitive at the world level.

So getting back to why the 2010 NZ example is irrelevant, when NZ qualified in 2010 they had to pass a quality-control test since OFC only had 0.5 spots, namely by beating a fringe team from another region. When you remove the quality-control test the example is no longer applicable (since NZ will have ups and downs like everyone else). Its like if all 10 CONMEBOL teams qualified. Maybe some years even the 10th-best will be competitive. OTOH, maybe the 10th team will be horrible. That's the problem with letting teams in by default.

 

I think (once again, only my opinion, which at the end only means peanuts ), is that both Concacaf and Conmebol, will get half direct spot each (raises Concacaf spots from 3,5 to 4 direct spots; and raises Conmebol from 4,5 to 5 direct spots), but together at the same time, there will be about 4-5 other, extra "combined (between both confeds)" spots.

Both Confeds can keep their current qualifier systems, as a first stage (both Confeds deciding on their own, independently one to the other, their "own" spots), while both can have a "combined", second qualifier stage, to decide the extra qualified teams.

Doing this, FIFA avoids watering down too much the level of the WC. At the same time avoids simply giving an excess of direct spots to a Confed with so few members in it, but with a very high level on playing the game (Conmebol), and also avoids giving too much spots to another Confed (Concacaf), which is full of tiny members, but with a very doubtful level on playing the game. It's not irrelevant, but Infantino did say it himself, officially, that he wants a "combined America's" type of qualifiers, and having this format allows something like it, to happen.

 

I'd say .5 spot is what is fair for OFC since that way at least New Zealand would have to beat someone decent to make it to the tournament. With 1 full spot or more, NZ could be worse than their WC82 level and still make it to the tournament.

 

I think that for the issue we are debating here, and for the votes they represent, New Zeland as a sole entity means peanuts, as their ticket to the WC is almost guaranteed. What Infantino really wants is to favour those 10, "other" votes by also giving them other chances to go through, by also playing someone else diferent than NZ., for that possibility to happen.

 

I wish/hope that will happen but highly doubt it. The smaller confeds will want their guaranteed spots.

But yeah... what you suggest (more inter-continental playoffs) would be great since then qualifying will keep a certain level of importance even for the stronger nations. Four extra guaranteed spots (AFC +1, UEFA +1, CAF +1, CONCACAF +0.5, CONMEBOL +0.5) and 12 extra inter-confederation playoffs (for a total of 13) would be nice, imo. The good teams will not want to enter a potentially risky KO playoff draw so they'll wanna qualify in the regular qualifying stage which would be roughly as challenging as the current qualifying process.

The playoffs would ideally be seeded according to how close the teams came to getting one of the guaranteed spots. That would avoid something radically unfair like the 6th place AFC team drawing #6 from CONMEBOL while the 9th place AFC team gets #2 from OFC.

 

I personally would rather see the Asian and African teams at the World Cup improve and compete than expand to let more of them play.

Technically the USA, Mexico, Japan and South Korea are almost guaranteed to be at the World Cup everytime due to their participation. I think if they were in UEFA they would be at the level of Switzerland, qualifying sometimes and not others.

 

Imperfect bot logic,
16 UEFA teams
16 Conmebol-Concacaf-OFC teams, also the host must be in here
8 african and 8 asian.
why did we discuss this?

 

Why leave out Brazil? Brazil will be playing 7 other CONMEBOL teams for 5 or 6 spots. This assumes Bolivia and Venezuela are still mediocre in 2026.

CONMEBOL
Brazil (ranked 2)
Argentina (ranked 1)
Chile (ranked 4)
Colombia (ranked 6)
Uruguay (ranked 9)
Peru (ranked 19)
Ecuador (ranked 20)
Paraguay (ranked 40)
--------------------- the above teams are competing for 6 or 7 spots. Brazil doesn't need to better then Uruguay and Peru to qualify like they do now. Brazil only needs to be better then Paraguay if there are 7 spots and Ecuador if there are 6.
Venezuela (ranked 59)
Bolivia (ranked 95)

Or for that matter Germany? In Euro qualify the top 2 could potentially qualify in each group now. Actually I am not sure how UEFA will handle the change in WCQ in 2025.

Look at the group they are in for 2018 WCQ

Germany (FIFA rank 3)
N Ireland (FIFA rank 32)
Czech Republic (FIFA rank 43)
Norway (FIFA rank 84)
Azerbaijan (FIFA rank 90)
San Marino (FIFA rank 202)

The only team Germany needs to worry about is a 43rd ranked Czech Republic.

 

hmm... maybe I'm missing something but I think UEFA wouldn't need to change their qualifying format. If anything their format probably needed to be changed if the WC stayed at 32 teams, but if their allocation increases to 16-17 teams, the current format works fine IMO.

 

Well, currently 8 out of 9 of the second place teams go into another round to compete for the remaining 4 spots. Now they will have 7 potential spots (assuming they get 16) for the 9 second place teams to compete for.

So the first round works fine, but what do they do for the second round, and how do they eliminate 2 of the 9 second place teams?

I guess they could take the bottom 4 teams... The second place teams that got the fewest points in the first round, and have them do a home and away playoff to eliminate 2 of these teams.

 

Well, there will be 10 groups in Euro 2020 qualifying so we'll probably see 10 groups also in WC qualifying from 2022 onward. Which could mean group winners + 2 best second-place teams + 4 playoff winners among second-place teams.

Although that leaves the Nations League hanging. So my bet would be: 10 group winners + 5 playoff winners among second-place teams + 1 Nations League champion. It's cleaner (none of this "best second place teams" nonsense).

 

With 48 teams there will be a lot more than the occasional New Zealand team that will be piss poor. A confederation is entitled to be represented at the World Cup. OFC should have a full spot now.

 

I think you are being unkind to New Zealand. They are on average at the level of the weakest Conmebol nations, not below them. If you were to swap New Zealand with Venezuela, then New Zealand would finish in the bottom 3 of Conmebol, and Venezuela would win OFC consistently. Remember, New Zealand at the better part of their cycle finished with 3 draws and no losses in the World Cup.

 

Currently they just organise inter confederation playoffs playoffs with a draw that allocates who plays who several years in advance, but they make UEFA draw their playoffs according to FIFA rankings. Be interesting to see which way they go, or even if they have inter confederation playoffs. There are enough spots to eliminate them and enough weak teams that it really wont matter to the quality of the tournament.

 

Nope, they would end dead last here (even with Bolivia and Venezuela around).
Both Venezuela and Bolivia, are still lots more talented than whatever New Zeland may be.

Both, ocassionally scrape points out of the big teams round here, not only playing at home, where they get the best from their particular environment conditions, but also playing away (on current WC qualifiers, for example, Venezuela got a draw playing in Peru; while Bolivia, originally got a draw playing here at Chile)

 

New Zealand would be bottom 1 of the Conmebol qualifiers for the foreseeable future. And they would lose to Venezuela or Bolivia in an intercontinental playoff.

 

I disagree with you. New Zealand also occasionally scrape points out of big teams when they get the chance (eg 2010 World Cup).

 

I disagree. There would be even competition between those teams and New Zealand, with New Zealand winning their fair share.

 

WC82: NZ 0 Brazil 4
WC94: Bolivia 0 Germany 1

Sure, NZ did very well for themselves at WC10, then they got hammered by Mexico in the intercontinental for WC14. I have never seen Mexico thump a Conmebol side in that manner in a competitive match.