Yeah but what are the chances for scenario 1 and for scenario 2 considering from UEFA 5 out of 8 teams were group winners and 3 were 2nd placed(as it stands)?
FWIW, here's how UEFA filled out the KO phase in past tournaments (and how many total teams they had) 2015: 7/16 (8/24) - the QFs were 3/8, to compare to other QFs 2011: 4/8 (5/16) 2007: 3/8 (5/16) 2003: 4/8 (5/16) 1999: 4/8 (6/16) 1995: 5/8 (5/12) 1991: 5/8 (5/12) So it's pretty typical for UEFA to make up roughly half of the knockouts, with only about one team eliminated in the group stage. So we're not much different than normal now.
Nine out of sixteen is still "roughly half". I used "roughly" since it hasn't always been perfectly half, but it has always been +/-1 from half. Also: don't make excuses, particularly silly ones. Scotland only have themselves to blame for not seeing out a 3-0 lead against a much-lower-ranked team.
And speaking of Scotland, here's the history of WWC debutantes (sans 1991): 1995: 3 debutantes, 2 out in the group phase (ENG out in QFs) 1999: 4 debutantes, 3 out in the group phase (RUS out in QFs) 2003: 3 debutantes, 3 out in the group phase 2007: 0 debutantes 2011: 2 debutantes, 2 out in the group phase 2015: 8 debutantes, 5 out in the group phase (CMR, NED, SUI out in R16) 2019: 4 debutantes, 3 out in the group phase so far (CHI TBD) =EDIT= wait I have 2015 messed up, hang on... =EDIT2= okay fixed
Completed. Out of 24 debutantes, only five have made it out of the group phase, and all of those five lost their next match. And we now have two African team in KO phase for the first time ever
I mentioned this in a game or group thread, but this thread is the better place to continue: With 3 today, Onga L. has now scored 8 times this World Cup. She's now broken her record from the 2015 WWC of 6, and is apparently gunning for Owen Gole's impressive 12-goal performance in last year's MWC. Even if she doesn't hit his 12, she only needs 10 to score at the same pace (since the WWC is only 52 games compared to the 64 games of the MWC).
Ranking of the eliminated teams: 17. Chile 1-0-2 18. Argentina 0-2-1 19. Scotland 0-1-2 20. New Zealand 0-0-3 (-4) 21. South Korea 0-0-3 (-7) 21. South Africa 0-0-3 (-7) 23. Jamaica 0-0-3 (-11) 24. Thailand 0-0-3 (-19)
I hate you: it took me about ten minutes to understand that Onga L. and Owen Gole were aliases of "own-goal". It didn't help that one of those had to be called own-goal by the VAR, after it had been given to Heath initially!
Performance ratings since 1/1/2018 of the teams in the Round of 16, including results in the World Cup (special calculations used for Nigeria and Cameroon): 1. Germany 2108 2. USA 2100 3. France 2085 4. England 2025 5. Netherlands 2005 6. Canada 1958 7. Sweden 1957 8. Japan 1952 9. Norway 1948 10. Spain 1938 11. Australia 1914 12. Brazil 1906 13. Italy 1897 14. China 1848 15. Nigeria 1818 *** 16. Cameroon 1790 *** *** Nigeria and Cameroon performance rating using only opponents outside their Confederation. (If African opponents are included, the performance ratings are 1637 and 1602 respectively) Expected win probabilities, estimated using performance ratings in 2018/2019 including the group stage of the World Cup: Germany (perf 2108/ official 2072) estimated odds of advancing (.841) over Nigeria (perf 1818/official 1599) Norway (perf 1948 / 1915) odds of advancing (.549) over Australia (perf 1914 / 2003) England (perf 2025/ 2049) odds of advancing (.795) over Cameroon (perf 1790 / 1499) France (perf 2085 / 2043) odds of advancing (.737) over Brazil (perf 1906 / 1944)
additional Round of 16 probabilities: USA (perf 2100 / 2101) odds of advancing (.718) over Spain (perf 1938 / 1913) Canada (perf 1958 / 2006) toss-up vs Sweden (perf 1957 / 1962) Italy (perf 1897 / 1868) odds of advancing (.57) over China (perf 1848 / 1866) Netherlands (perf 2005 / 1967) odds of advancing (.576) over Japan (perf 1952 / 1991)
Let's talk about goals some more, yes? For the second consecutive tournament, every participating team has scored at least one goal.
It being a rest day for the Cup, it's a rest day for we tourists, too. Some general impressions: Most of the French we've had a chance to talk to are well aware of the WWC going on, but we've encountered few who are serious WoSo fans. They know the French team is a serious contender, but most seem to think the US is the best team. Some know the names of a few of the French players but in general the attitude towards the French women is not remotely close to the attitude about the French men. There's nothing surprising there, but awareness of the WWC is less than I'd expected. Surprising to me, though maybe it shouldn't be, supporters for the different nations have showed up at the games we've been to -- for Canada and Cameroon (lots of supporters) in Montpellier, Chile and US in Paris, and particularly Sweden and US in Le Havre where we are now. The Swedes in particular are great fans, are organized as a fan group (much more so than US fans, including the Outlaws), but at the same time are very friendly. NOTE: there is no alcohol allowed in the stadia, so far as we can tell. The stadia themselves vary in quality. Montpellier is pretty pathetic and is due for replacement soon -- a French write-up we saw on each stadium quite correctly panned it; Parc des Princes in Paris was pretty good; and Stade Oceane in Le Havre is great, although in the middle of a large industrial area. In every stadium, however, the pitch was excellent, and that clearly is a high priority. Perhaps the French value the quality of the field and game more than the fan experience, which might be the opposite from the US emphasis? The French people we've met have been friendly and very helpful. Typically if we're standing on a sidewalk looking at a map, a local will stop and ask if we need help. This is true in Paris, too, contrary to some reports that the Parisiennes can be unfriendly or not helpful. Can't wait for the next game, in Reims for the US and Spain. Then, if the US and Paris win, it should be a great one in Paris.
Indeed the fan experience side is not developed in France, fans are spectators first and foremost.The policing of away side in men's football with many forbidden to travel away for administrative bullshit reasons does not really help as well as heavy stewarding shows little interest for the fan experience. I noted fans complaining about the lack of merchandising and shops inside the grounds, I will ask the LOC people I know about it, but not surprised there is not much more to be honest.
At the end of the @FIFAWWC group stage, the average attendance is 18,498, the lowest of any tournament with the exception of 1995. Even with capacity crowds at each of the remaining 16 matches, the average will not exceed the figure at the last three finals tournaments. #FIFAWWC pic.twitter.com/XDUvqQJXRa— Asif Burhan (@AsifBurhan) June 21, 2019
Well, we know that the Canada figures were a bit iffy with double hearders and with 1 300 000 on sale this tournament, there was no way France 19 would beat Canada 15'
Regarding attendances, this year we have one game at a time only. There were double-headers in some of those earlier World Cups, which is skewing the numbers a great deal. If the average attendance after the final is better than 20 000, the hosts can be very satisfied.