WNT v Colombia, Apr. 6, 2016, pre/pbp/post

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by Semblance17, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    This Heath moving to FB late is going to be the death of Hinkle.
     
  2. Hisownshadow

    Hisownshadow Member

    May 11, 2012
    One of the best games I have seen WNT play. Everyone was doing work out there. Really enjoyed watching this.
     
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  3. babranski

    babranski Member+

    Dec 15, 2012
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There was a point it seemed like we were all freaking out about who would replace Rapinoe on the left, but now Ellis has both Pugh & Heath doing very well.

    I'm thinking Pugh is the better option than Heath, primarily because at the end of her long fancy runs Tobin can never seem to complete a pass of consequence. You guys get all hyped up about these incredible runs & nutmegs, but I have a feeling when we see the stats for this game she will have a very poor pass completion %.

    I'm hoping for a decent replay soon so I can go a little more in depth at her numbers. Maybe somebody with a better memory than mine can remind me if Heath ever completed a pass that created a scoring chance? I can't think of a damn one.
     
  4. RAMbunctious

    RAMbunctious Member

    Jul 19, 2011
    Not sure what game you watched? Heath played great. Your hate for her is unbearable. Like did this women turn you down or something at bar?
     
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  5. Hisownshadow

    Hisownshadow Member

    May 11, 2012
    He's pissed because his favorite player Ohai can't get a call up, so he attacks Tobin Heath every game thread.

    I honestly don't even have a clue what games he watches.
     
  6. babranski

    babranski Member+

    Dec 15, 2012
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean . . . I just said both Heath & Pugh were playing well, & I pointed out the difference for me to pick a starter. Pugh completes her passes, Heath does not. You want to call me a hater for that, fine.

    I'm a stats person. I look at stats. Not flicks & tricks. The stats are what I make my decisions on, not entertainment.
     
  7. babranski

    babranski Member+

    Dec 15, 2012
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's just petty, don't bring Kealia into this.
     
  8. topsyturvy

    topsyturvy Member

    Oct 8, 2006
    We don't need stats to show us that the team dominated from start to finish with Heath playing 90 minutes. Heath played and started in WC final that US won 5-2.
     
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  9. babranski

    babranski Member+

    Dec 15, 2012
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    On the right wing, where her numbers go way up. I've always preferred her on the right. She just seems to do better, has always combined well with Krieger (the right back during WWC) & for whatever reason relies less on nutmegs and flash on the right than she does generating chances & delivering the ball in the box.

    Right now my starters, with everybody healthy, is Pugh on the left, Heath on the right, Morgan in the middle.
     
  10. MRAD12

    MRAD12 Member+

    Jun 10, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Ridiculous. babranski is one of the biggest UNC fans around. I've been at UNC games with him so I'm sure he has no hate for any former UNC players, including Tobin Heath. babranski likes to analyze sometimes using statistics and often has good points.
     
  11. McSkillz

    McSkillz Member+

    ANGEL CITY FC, UCLA BRUINS
    United States
    Nov 22, 2014
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hopefully not following Maradona Wambach's lead....
     
  12. RalleeMonkey

    RalleeMonkey Member+

    Aug 30, 2004
    here
    Who was it that headed the ball 50 yards out of the back to Dunn, on Tobin's goal?

    Pretty sure it was Brunn. Even if it was not, ya gotta watch Brunn's clears. She almost always has a purpose. Not just aimless get it out of danger clears. She clears looking to make something happen.

    Even if it's a desparation clear, she often will get it over the midline.
     
  13. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    I'm glad Allie got two goals. Now she can come back to Portland and play holding mid.:thumbsdown:
     
  14. Smallchief

    Smallchief Member+

    Oct 27, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    Well, everybody on the US team looked great -- after the first 25 minutes. I guess you'd have to give Allie Long the POTM award. I thought Mewis looked good at defensive mid, big, rangy, and fast. With Allie and Mewis looking good, Horan was a bit overshadowed. Tough competition among those three for a spot in the midfield.

    Pugh -- hard to believe -- but she's a starter. Heath is playing well -- and I never thought I would say that. Dunn is better in tight places than any other forward we have.

    It was one of those nights when everything the U.S. did turned out well. The soccer gods will have their revenge in a future game.
     
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  15. luvdagame

    luvdagame Member+

    Jul 6, 2000
    #115 luvdagame, Apr 7, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
    we forgot to praise ellis.

    or maybe that was not an oversight.

    the team is moving the ball around really well. they're doing it at a quite challenging speed of thought, and they are being more creative around the 18. even their set pieces are coming back.

    my only criticism? I "hate" this. it's only april. this kind of play is unsustainable thru august.
     
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  16. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Ashley Smanchez has been looking good in training.
    If the roster were 21 at the Olympics, she would possibly be there.
     
  17. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm seriously searching for things that could have been better, and when your criticism is limited to players having average games, you know things were going well.
     
  18. Lorrie Fair

    Lorrie Fair Member

    Jul 31, 2010
    Dunn & Long deserve another start on Sunday. We know they will be benched for Alex and Morgan. Is that fair?
     
  19. Dundalk24

    Dundalk24 Member

    Jul 20, 2007
    PA/OH
    Deserving has nothing to do with it. They might warrant a longer look depending on the coach's plans. But playing time isn't a reward. Certainly not at this stage. I think Ellis is more concerned with winning than being fair. The question is has she got the right tactics or not? We won't know until August.
     
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  20. BlitzSpiele

    BlitzSpiele Member

    Sep 7, 2007
    How many fouls did Heath suffer? She must have gotten 8 or 9 calls. You would have thought by 5 or 6, persistent infringement would have produced a yellow card.
     
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  21. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    She did get fouled a lot, but I thought the officiating was good. A different official might have bought some of those flops Colombia was trying early on, or given soft penalties to the US for both that save off the line by Velasquez that may have hit her hand and Lloyd tripping herself up in the box.
     
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  22. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    I thought there were quite a few fouls by Colombia which were let go on a "the poor dears don't know any better" basis, and I thought that resulted in a few "enforcer" fouls by the US; in particular I'm getting the impression that Horan is ready to embrace the Lloyd role at that, and Heath has been creeping up on it too.

    Did you really think there was any chance that Lloyd would get a call on that? I thought it was pretty obvious that she just planted harder than that field would hold-- but maybe I was just annoyed with her for cutting back when I thought initially that she could just roll it in on her first touch...

    Somebody farther up pointed out that Brunn was quietly excellent, and I second that emotion. And Solo came up big a couple of times-- Colombia is capable of making that a 7-2 or 7-3 game...

    I'm at the point of wishing to see Krieger take over the starts at RB again-- I'm not feeling the gain on offense is worth the loss in defense. I know Ali probably won't last to the next WC, but there's time enough to find another or step KO up some. Maybe the idea is to raise one who never has to fuss about "defense first" and avoid what happened to Cox, and this is the ideal time to try it, but...

    I also feel like Press' roster spot is in extreme danger, not really through any fault of her own-- life just ain't fair sometimes. She's just a round peg at a time when square holes are what's empty and a time when we are knee-deep in round ones...
     
  23. Dundalk24

    Dundalk24 Member

    Jul 20, 2007
    PA/OH
    I've been watching that Heath goal on a loop. It was a fantastic goal. But when Heath made that run into the heart of the box the nearest defender was in Rhode Island. This Colombia team was a faint shadow of the team that they faced last summer in Canada. And not just because they were missing Andrade and other key players. They had the effort but looked rusty and disorganized. They'll have to get a lot sharper between now and Rio or it will be a struggle to be as respectable this time.
     
  24. babranski

    babranski Member+

    Dec 15, 2012
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In January I was working on a stats model that I ended up putting on the back burner because it was taking up too much time. Plus things started to get weird for me and I decided to shelve it. The problem was thus: It's more important, for me at least, to give credit where credit is due and to remain consistent... & that was easier said than done.

    I re-awakened the beast for this game & I’m using it to compare Tobin Heath & Mallory Pugh.

    Some quick notes about these stats. Yes, they are very subjective. Chance creation for me is simply looking at the play & asking myself "who made that chance happen?" Often times it ends up being not who you think. In addition, these stats are 100% from the run of play... so no set pieces, no throw ins, no pks or corners, etc. A good way to think about what I deemed a recordable stat is the back pass rule. If a player appears to be able to have the witheral to direct their touch in a manner that a GK could not pick it up if it was kicked back to him, then that is a recordable instance.

    Key Passes is a very subjective stat but it’s also a bit of a stand alone. Takes into account the degree of difficulty. A chance creation attempt that results in a turnover isn't recorded as a turnover. Never going to begrudge someone trying to make a big play with a negative stat.

    Turnovers are tricky. Have to figure out at what point does an incomplete pass become the fault of the players or the defenders for making a good defensive play. Turnover for the former. If however, a defensive player makes a good play and forces a turnover while the attacking player is still in possession, I consider that a turnover. I will say that one of my biggest pet peeves that influenced the stats in this system is this: I HATE turnovers in possession. Pass the dagum ball. If a player loses possession and has the ball poked out of bounds off the defender, you don't give the attacker credit for retaining possession. It's a turnover unless the player was trying to create a chance.

    Cross' are tricky as well, it's the only chance creation that relies on the quality of the run by the recipient more than the actual quality of the cross. A good quality cross that doesn't find a friendly player or is cleared away is recorded as a completed chance creation but also as an incomplete pass.

    Thankfully, Pugh didn’t present any tricky situations for me to figure out. A rather clean cut game in terms of what each stat was. Will get rolling on Heath later, & I’m debating whether I should do Press.

    Mal Pugh starts the game on the right.
    01:10 - 01:15 Turnover in Possession
    04:58 - 05:00 Completed Pass
    05:00 - 05:04 Completed Pass
    05:40 - 05:45 Turnover in Possession
    05:53 - 05:55 Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover
    14:28 - 14:28 Completed Pass
    15:58 - 16:00 Completed Pass
    17:10 - 17:12 Turnover in Possession, FLOP

    Pugh moves to the left.

    25:45 - 25:48 Completed Key Pass, Completed Chance Creation to Heath, 12 yards out, right hash.
    26:00 Dunn scores, 1-0 US
    27:47 - 27:49 Completed Pass
    31:12 Long scores, 2-0 US
    32:29 Pugh Scores, 3-0 US, chance created by Lloyd.
    34:15 - 34:17 Turnover in Possession
    36:06 - 36:07 Turnover in Possession
    38:05 - 38:08 Completed Key Pass
    38:08 - 38:12 Completed Key Pass, Completed Chance Creation, endline cut back, finished by Lloyd.
    38:12 Lloyd Scores, assist to Pugh, 4-0 US
    40:43 - 40:44, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, driven square 12 yards out, intercepted.
    44:24 - 44:25, Incomplete Pass, Turnover
    45:15 - 45:20, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, endline cut back, intercepted.
    HALF, 4-0 US

    Final Stats for Mal Pugh
    01 Goal & 01 Assist
    17 Possessions (8 on the right, 9 on the left)
    07 Turnovers (4 on the right, 3 on the left)

    12 Total Pass Attempts (5 on the right, 7 on the left)
    08 Total Pass Completions (4 on the right, 4 on the left)

    06 Key Pass Attempts (1 on the right, 5 on the left)
    03 Key Pass Completions (0 on the right, 3 on the left)

    04 Chance Creations Attempted (0 on the right, 4 on the left)
    02 Chance Creations Completed (0 on the right, 2 on the left)
     
  25. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Still havent done a re-watch but I think people r too interested in comparing this match to the WC match. Do I think the US is playing better now? Much better but not to the discrepancy between the two matches. I would also be surprised if Japan does more than try and give their young players experience. So unless they have a good opponent in July I think Ellis bases her selection mostly on what she learned against good teams in SBC.

    Thought the formation was interesting but again not sure it works nearly as well against strong opponents. If Ellis is comfortable with one DM as she showed Id rather see her play a 4-4-2 diamond. Liked the short quick passing and improved movement without the ball. This is certainly better than previous philosophy of trying to bang it over top.

    As to Olympic roster, not sure if anything new has been decided. If Long can make her case I think it's going to made in the NWSL. If Ellis plans to carry 4 CMs including Lloyd then I would see it as either Horan or Long not both. If Ellis decides to take all 5 CMs then it's the end for HAO and makes it much less likely that Sonnett (whose big plus is cover at DM) and Hinkle (who Heath playing FB is obsoleting) make the team. Also if it comes down to Horan or Long then Long might have the edge because Horan can be an alternate. I doubt they give Long a full contract unless she is in the 18.
     

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