Who's the favorite to win this group ?

I am hoping that all the teams will be healthy and in optimal squads. I expect to see some really good football in group H.

 

Fifa's Disciplinary Committee have opened an investigation into Edwin Cardona after the Colombia midfielder made a racist gesture to South Korean players during a friendly on 10 November.

Cardona could receive a five-match ban that would rule him out of the World Cup. pic.twitter.com/9EYOOaG7AI

— Carl Worswick (@cworswick) December 5, 2017

Well, darn. He's important.

 

I said this in the Colombia forum and I will say it here. 5 games would be too harsh.

A guy can violently step on someone and basically injure him for many months or a career and get two MAYBE three games.
An ignorant 24 year old fool does something stupid like this and could get 5 games?
Punishment just does not fit the crime in my book. If he does get 5 games they should appeal it.

 

They probably will.

What Cardona did was excruciatingly stupid, though.

 

Yes. I agree it was stupid and uncalled for and maybe a suspension of few games should be applied. And the irony of it all in my book is that I have been saying the last few years that it would not surprise me if he did something detrimental to the team because of his temper and his history a the club level. (A ticking time bomb if you will.)
Never would have imagined it would be like this though. And to be fair he really has behaved at the National team level under Pekerman until this incident.

 

How important is he for Colombia anyway?

And I may still be butthurt as some fellow Iranians say, but you can even injure a player for many months or even destroy his career, yet only get a yellow card.

 

He has scored important goals for Colombia this cycle. Game winners on various occasions. Also, as I alluded to before he is very creative and can pass the ball very well with good vision.
If he is not a starter he is usually the first one off the bench to provide a spark.

 

Can't see this being treated lightly though. Think this will kill his chances of a group game at the World Cup and may exclude him altogether.

 

Which is too harsh for a heated moment in a friendly in my opinion.

 

It's probably for the racial context.

 

Yes. And FIFA wants to make a statement.
But I don't believe the punishment fits the crime.

 

I doubt it will be five matches. But what do you think would be fair? After all, this was an intentional racist act, not a clumsy but unintentional challenge that results in an injury.

I think a two match suspension is perfectly fair, and even three would not be excessively harsh, IMO.

 

How stupid is that. A guy making racist gesture to a guy of antrhopologicaly the same "race", if anyone believes in "race" concept. It's basically the same as afroamericans calling each other N word. Noone punishes them for that.

 

Not the same though.

 

Same race? Cardona and the Koreans? Certainly not with respect to facial features, which is what he was mocking.

 

Senegalese are a very laid back crowd and for the most part very earnest folk. El Hadji Diouf is very un-Senegalese like in this regard. I venture I guess that Jamaica is mostly made out of people of Wolof origin. Overall there should be no issue with locker room chemistry.

That's also why we shouldn't see any on-field breakdowns like we have with Cameroon.

I don't follow the FA, but I've never once heard about major issues with the federation. There was time where El Hadji Diouf had a major fallout with the federation, but once again it seems pretty well run (comparitively speaking). Also Senegal is a pretty well-off country for Western Africa. That said so is Ghana and Nigeria, but we still had issues with payments being delayed or not being made.

I'm optimistic, but given Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon all had cash issues last World Cup I prefer to be careful here. Nigeria for example should be fine as they found sponsors for the coach and the players, but we'll see how that pans out.

 

Six months out and Poland is having some worrying injury issues. Given their short bench it could be worrying:

Forward Arkadiusz Milik is out with a second knee ligament tear in a year, which means he's out till the new year. Even then these injuries are dreadful and there's no guarantee Milik will be in shape for the 2018 World Cup. Milik is Poland's best attacking player not named Lewandowski.

Lukasz Piszczek of Borussia has his own issues with a ligament tear, but he should be up and running by the beginning of next year.

Winger Maciej Matuszewski has a torn cruciate ligament and is out for 5-6 months and now most likely out of the squad. Pretty gruesome injury also... He's not a starter but he would have likely made the final 23.

Not to mention that Lukasz Teodorczyk who was one of last summer's hottest items is now in such abysmal form that his value has plunged and not even the Polish coach wants to have anything to do with him. Not sure who the backup for Lewandowski now is... Stepinski has barely over 100 minutes and 1 goal this season with Chievo (Italy), Wilczek is a sub player in Denmark. I guess Swierczok is the most impressive based on goal tally, but he did fail to make a name for himself outside of Poland.

 

In terms of talent on paper, I'd say it's pretty close between Poland, Colombia and Senegal. I think the team that gets eliminated will be the team that drops points against Japan.

 

All things considered I think Colombia has the best coach, which gives them a huge edge. Also Japan's coach is much better than Senegal's or Poland's, so that takes away a lot of the power differential.

 

His overall track record is much better and he did great with Algeria. I don't follow the Japanese national side though.

Senegal's coach is a former footballer with little coaching experience and limited qualifications. I don't even think he has a footballing philosophy. Poland's coach is just clueless. I guess the best I can say about him is that his entire gameplan seems to be give Lewandowski the ball. Very passive, reactive coach.

 

This is all true. And so is the statement that Nawalka is a passive manager. He has angered many by not playing offensively during Euro 16, but rather retreating as soon as the team had an advantageous score. This backfired during the Portugal match, but could have also backfired when Poland played Switzerland. Many also fault him for not thinking proactively and creatively by not substituting Fabianski with Boruc or Szczesny, who are much better shot stoppers for the penalty kicks phase of the Portugal match, even though he had one available sub.

However, Nawalka is not necessarily "clueless". He recognized early on in his tenure that Poland must play with two strikers to be successful, if only to free up Lewandowski up front, or to allow the second striker room while Lewandowski is double or triple teamed. Thus Milik's form or availability will be a key factor if Poland is to succeed in Russia, as other available strikers are useless.

Lack of bench is also a big problem, especially with ageing midfield. Makuszewski played well in the last two matches in midfield, so even though he is far from a household name his loss is huge.

I think with Piszczek back and healthy Glik the defense is the best in the group. Pazdan is also not a well known commodity, but he was a beast in France.

 

Well, it's official. Cardona was given a five-match ban.