Who's the favorite to win this group ?

you won at home in a game where you needed to qualify while they were already qualified.
I agree that Japan isn't that great today but they are still better than Saudi Arabia.

 

Japan has good players but they lack leadership in the pitch.

Also I like their coach Vahid Halilodzic but I never thought it was a good idea to hire him. He's a good coach to bring discipline to a group but Japan players are already disciplined. None of them will even be coming late to a training. So I don't see what betterment he can bring. Even his strong speech will get lost in translation with the polite Japanese language.

I'm not surprised he did a good job with Algeria and I'm not surprised he didn't impress so far a coach of Japan.

 

Poland is anything but disciplined

 

Hahah
Have you even seen the Euro 2016?

I would like to see Senegal not leting Germany take a single shoot on target for 90+ minutes barelly comiting any fouls.

You guys think of Poland back in the days, 2002, 2006. That team is no more. They can play now and prooved it many times. Still not favorites in this group, but anyone saying that matches against Poland will be easy, wasn't paying attention.

 

Have you seen Denmark - Poland? Poland - Scotland (or Scotland - Poland)? Kazachstan - Poland? Even games like Poland - Armenia?

Look at how Poland qualified for the World Cup. Despite their easy group they made it as hard as they could, beating Armenia in the 5th minute of extra time and struggling against every team in the group save for Romania.

Out of 18 teams that were first or second in their qualifying group they conceeded the most goals - 14 (the second worst team conceeded 9 - Sweden). They also conceeded at least one goal in all but two games.

So yes. They are not disciplined and a one-off Germany game, which is their ultimate foe and tends to make them play on another level does not change that. Yes, the were pretty solid in Euro 2016, but not in qualifying.

Not to mention Poland very rarely plays non-European competition and when they do they struggle. Since 2012 they've played two home games vs non-UEFA opposition -vs Mexico (lost 1:0) and vs a depleted Uruguay (draw 0:0).

 

Not to mention that in Euro 2016 that they look pretty ineffective if Lewandowski is taken out of the game. He only scored once in the competition and they only scored 4 goals. I think despite their ability they will struggle to score.

 

To be fair only Germany, Portugal, Spain and Belgium scored more goals than them in qualifying. That said they needed to given their porous defence.

But one has to doubt how they would cope without Lewandowski, who scored 16 out of their 28 goals.

 

Denmark - Poland 4:0
Amateurish set piece defending on goal 1, absolute shambles on goal 2, goalkeeping blunder on goal 3. OK, goal 4 was good.

 

Great, then how do you explain why professionals, that value the teams for living, see the odds like that:
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/group-h/winner

I guess they understand, that one lost match doesn't change anything.

That away loss vs Denmark is an argument for everyone who wants to dimnish Poland. People just don't understand (or pretend that they don't), what is the form of the players and a team.

 

Its not just that Denmark game. Its the amount of goals they conceeded vs other teams. The only good team they had in the group Denmark scored 6 goals on them, but Montenegro scored 3 goals, Armenia and Kazachstan 2 goals each.

So when we talk about form - well... their form is that they have a poor defence, but Lewandowski manages to score a lot of goals. And arguably Colombia, Senegal and even Japan have better attacks than Denmark.

And bookies do have Colombia over the higher FIFA-ranked Poland. Meanwhile the chances of Senegal are rated way higher than what their FIFA ranking would suggest.

 

Haha, yet still lower than what you are trying to perasuade here.
You are just biased.

 

FACT: Poland is 7th in the world, Colombia 13th, yet Colombia is favored to win the group.

FACT: You claim Poland is an organized European team, yet I proved to you that they conceeded more than 50% more goals than any other of the top 18 UEFA nations in qualifying (1st or 2nd placed team), so obviously they have a defensive problem. Which was the initial argument.

FACT: This is probably the most telling statistic: Poland conceeded more goals than 31 of the 54 UEFA nations that participated in qualifying.

The list of teams that conceeded more goals than Poland: Bulgary, Luxembourg, Belarus, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra, Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Moldova, Armenia, Kazachstan, Lithuania, Malta, Israel, Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Estonia, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Kosovo... The list speaks for itself.

FACT: No one said the games vs Poland will be easy. The only claim is that they are way overrated and also that they aren't a well organised team.

You basically keep changing the goalposts and then claim people said stuff they didn't say. Claiming Poland is an organized European team based on their track record in qualifying is pretty laughable.

 

When and where?

How is Poland overrated? By who? By fifa rankings? By bookies? By me?

 

I don't know. You tell me.

Its you that seems to have some contention with the claim they aren't as good as the FIFA ranking suggests or that they aren't that organised.

Everyone else has stated this is a pretty open, even group. The main point of contention being just how good is Poland - they have their doubters and their promoters.

Even with Senegal you can see the African fans are pretty wary of exaggerating their chances and the fact they are compared to Cote d'Ivoire says a lot as to how they perceive their chances. We highlight their players (arguably the best group of players in the group), but don't say outright they will progress.

This is honestly the one group where any 1-4 configuration is highly likely. Even a 1) Japan 2) Senegal scenario.

 

I agree. I think this is the group that could have the highest amount of possibilities as to who advances, especially if Japan can get their act together. On paper I have to favour Colombia and Senegal, but we know games aren't played on paper. Form wise I also have to favour both teams.

 

Tough group to predict.

I don't think Poland today is as good as what we saw at Euros. They have a great generation, but they've become too static and predictable. Yes, they scored a lot of goals in a qualifying group, but not against defenses like Senegal and Colombia. The key for me is where they get their creativity from. Blaszczykowski and Grosicki are usually the two players I look for from wide positions. If they can get into attack, Poland can be dangerous. But neither is getting any younger, and the problem is that I don't see any options on the bench. You can't expect both wingers to play 270 minutes effectively at that age. The key for Poland IMO is if they can break out a new surprise contributor. Someone young that can have a moment and change a game ... maybe Zielinski or Linetty. Will Kapustka make the team?

Colombia for me is another team that is slightly overrated. They barely made the tournament. No wins in their last 4 games in qualifying including a home loss to Paraguay and a tie with Venezuela. Pekerman's tactics are frustrating to me for a team with so much talent. Not enough numbers going forward. The striker is almost always alone. Very few chances created. On the other hand Pekerman's tactics have made the team very consistent. They made the quarterfinals in 2014 and got 3rd place at Copa America Centenario. With players like Rodriguez, Falcao and Cuadrado they are capable of changing a difficult game with a moment of magic.

Japan might be my favorite team in this group to watch. Technically I think they can play any of the other teams in this group. The problem with them is that all that pretty play in midfield is wasted if there's nobody in the box to finish. Their team is full of forwards, but no real #9 finisher. You see this at club level too with Okazaki, Muto, Osako and Haraguchi not scoring many goals. Their only strategy is to walk the ball into the net. In a different type of group with weaker defenses I could see them having a chance. But Poland, Colombia and Senegal are all big physical defenses and I just don't see how Japan scores enough. They'll need several moments of magic.

Senegal I can't judge because I haven't watched them play. But on paper they look like the #2 team in the group ... maybe even #1. But we all know that it's not always so straight forward with African teams. The objective is very simple for Senegal. Win game #1 against Poland, which they are more than capable of doing. If they do this, I think they can also beat Japan and there's no pressure in their last game against Colombia.

 

Colombia didn't won the last 4 games but there are few things to keep in mind before making that claim
We tied Venezuela in Venezuela(that's actually a good result, Colombia always struggle vs Venezulea, to give a perspective last qualifiers we lost that game )

We tied Brazil, is Brazil, what you expect?

In the loss vs Paraguay we were beating them and then Ospina make two errors at the end min 89 and extra time
That made him lost some confidence at the last game which we were beating Peru and he made an own goal which resulted the game in a tie

 

Also worth mentioning that Venezuela rebooted their team mid-campaign and in the second half of the qualification there were really competitive. I expect them to battle for a slot in 2022 with this group of young guns.

 

I think a big Poland asset is that they should have the crowd on their side for most of their matches. It's too bad for them that Kaliningrad was assigned as the venue to another group, as it is just across the border from Poland. Poland plays Senegal in Moscow, and there are thousands of expat Poles in the Moscow area, as well as Volgograd, where they match up against Japan. I'm not sure about Kazan, where they will play Colombia. Probably not too many there, way out in Tartarstan.

 

I am thankful that we're playing some great friendlies in March; I feel that friendlies against tough teams before an event like the world cup helps a player ease into it.

 

It's hard to believe that an African team hasn't topped a World Cup group since 1998. I predict Senegal will change that.

 

I get it. CONMEBOL is really difficult. But this group will be difficult too. If you're having problems with Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela you're also going to have problems with Poland, Japan and Senegal.

Now keep in mind that I still think Colombia advances in this group. But it won't be easy ... maybe 5 points or something like that. A win against Japan and draws against Poland and Senegal. And it won't be pretty ... mostly low scoring games. 2-1 vs. Japan, 1-1 vs. Poland and 0-0 vs. Senegal

 

We are talking about two different things, while you claim that we will have problems vs Poland, Japan and Senegal like somehow im trying to deny that point, which im not. Im just talking on how that example that you gave (the 4 games) they needed some context like I said before, because they dont show the whole picture and are misleading

 

What happens in qualifiers has nothing to do with the World Cup tournament. Uruguay in 2010 looked horrible in that qualification cycle and still found way to look decent in the tournament for instance.

There will be different players and tactics and formations that will be a progressive change. There will be new strategies and clashes of style match -ups that will play into it to.

The most important thing you forget to mention about the qualifying campaign is that injuries really did not help Colombia at all. Their last four games they played without Yerry Mina who is arguably their most consistent defender (especially in the air), best in the area, and provides an offensive presence on crosses and set pieces.
Also James Rodriguez was injured and not 100% during those last four games you mentioned (he did not even play in the Venezuela match). And finally Falcao has had many nagging injuries this whole entire cycle and barely played in Qualifiers so that is a main factor as to why the overall qualification may not be as good as you may think it should be.

There were too many variables and problems for Pekerman to consider (injuries, players out of form/older, new kids that had to be implemented at various positions, team leaders being rotated or left out from last cycle), and I believe he has done a decent job during these storms riding them out to make sure the ship did not sink.
I am hoping everyone is healthy and ready for Russia.