Who's next?

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by Sport Billy, Jan 15, 2019.

  1. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree.

    BTW I came across this article today, which I want to share.

    https://mlsmultiplex.com/2019/01/16...ly&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

    which I have to say I absolutely agree with the writer. It talks about over expansion in the US which is compares MLS expansion from other leagues around the world. You can't compare the US to Europe for four main reasons, which are the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL. They don't the large number of sports franchises from many sports. Unless MLS is planning on splinting into several divisions. Which their is no indication, especially with what they are charging for expansion fees. In addition when you go below the major league level support drops off dramatically. I believe the tipping point is at hand with 30 clubs. Cautiously, 30 is the number that the NBA currently operates at which they seem to be happy. MLS should learn from the NBA, not the NFL which they so desperately want to be. You are only as strong as your weakest link. This why the NBA continues to resist the temptation of expansion. They see value in having strength from the top to the bottom of the league. MLS should strive to make all clubs like Atlanta United, rather than the Chicago Fire or Colorado Rapids. Fix those issues first and then maybe in 10 to 15 years then consider moving to perhaps 32.
     
  2. MLSinSTL

    MLSinSTL Member+

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Mar 20, 2009
    Ohio - near a city
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even though I don’t live anywhere near St. Louis, I joined BigSoccer after stalking the forums for a year because I wanted St. Louis to join MLS. It’s why my user name is what it is.

    I wonder if that desire to stay private hurt the bid in any way. I would imagine it did.
     
  3. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not sure why it would have hurt them.. I can almost guarantee that MLS knew who everyone in the investor group was and had some sort of financial details on them.
     
  4. Sport Billy

    Sport Billy Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2006
    It did not hurt with MLS, but I think it hurt from a support stand point.
    I think it might also have made other potential investors stay away.

    I know being a lawyer hurt the bid.
     
  5. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why are you under the impression the NBA is happy at 30? All kinds of rumors about Seattle coming back. Further, in recent years the NBA has downgraded numerous times in terms of market size (SEA to OKC, CHA to NO, Van to Memphis). None of that is smart.

    There is no fixed number. There are 40 CSA/MSA's in USA/CAN with polulations over 2 million. 39 of them (including Austin) have at least 1 team in the Big 5 leagues: NFL/CFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS. San Juan is the lone exception.

    11 other cities also support teams: Jacksonville, NO, OKC, Calgary, Memphis, Ottawa, Edmonton, Buffalo (all over $1 million); Winnipeg (750k+), Hamilton (500k-750k), and Green Bay (under 500k).

    Again, total # of markets of each size:
    1) 2 million or more = 40
    2) 1 mil or more = 68
    3) 750k+ = 87
    4) 500k+ = 116

    There are more than enough markets capable of supporting teams well to arbitrarily cut a league off at a specific number (28, 30, 32, 34, 36).

    However, in a league with revenue sharing, diminishing returns is a real factor (though $150 million expansion fees help). Every new team means the pie gets cut into more pieces.

    Agree that MLS will not rush to hit a certain number either, nor should they. Most of their current issues are caused by rushing into things earlier (some with good reason), namely letting PSV buy the Crew (rush to get to 1 owner per team), some of the leases for SSS (rush to build SSS & capture that revenue stream), and rushing to get a 2nd team in NY before things were ready.

    I do not believe for a second PSV would clear the ownership bar today, so for now that die is cast. But at least Haslam/Edwards are in Columbus.

    As for the leases, some locked in until 2030s. Stuck for 10+ years there. And NYCFC is what it is, now.

    Until then? Keep expanding through the 2026 WC. Keep collecting $150 million expansion fees (or more). Make sure each group has:

    1) Proven, committed, deep-pocketed ownership with a significant (if not MAJ) local component.

    2) An approved stadium plan. In a good location with development around it.

    Those are the musts. Also nice:

    3) A proven soccer town (USL, NASL, college hotbed).

    4) A proven sports town.

    5) City has good demographics/growth.

    6) Level/lack of competition from other pro-sports teams in town.

    7) Synergy of possible local/regional rivalry with nearby teams.
    ---------------

    Throw 2-3 in from the second basket & you have a winner.

    I think STL, PHX, and SAC could all get there pretty quick. I would be stunned if #28 & #29 are not announced by the end of this year. 30 if ready. 32 will be playing by 2026, possibly more announced.
     
  6. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #31 SteveUSSF_ref8, Jan 18, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2019
    I just don't understand why more is better. I just don't buy expansion past 30. The league needs to strengthen there leakiest link first.
     
  7. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Because the league can walk and chew gum at the same time... There isn’t a reason why they can’t work on their weak clubs and expand at the same time.
     
    jaykoz3 repped this.
  8. Sport Billy

    Sport Billy Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2006
    I'd much rather have the league in two 16 team divisions or four 8 teams divisions than six 5 team divisions. So 32 for me.
     
  9. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd much rather have 3 conferences with 10 clubs each. So 30 clubs for me.
     
  10. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. johnny copper

    johnny copper New Member

    Dec 16, 2016
    What about five 6 team divisions? That would lead to a balanced 34-game schedule.
    Is there any reason to divide the league into east and west?
     
  12. whereiend

    whereiend Member

    Dec 26, 2014
    The NBA faces competitive issues with expansion. Even with 30 teams there is only a few Lebron, Curry, etc. The NBA has markets to expand to, but there is a real possibility of talent dilution breaking the competitiveness of the league. The MLS on the other hand is nowhere near the top league competitively, and as a result there is an effectively unlimited talent pool, at least for international players. It also helps that soccer is more of a team sport that is less dominated by elite individual players.
     
  13. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, there is a seemingly unlimited talent pool international. But whatever happened to original intent of MLS to develop the "American Soccer Player", to make the US. competitive for the World Cup.
     
  14. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Old article from November. But at least fairly thorough.

    Delusional if they think there will be a pause of any meaningful length. MLS will try to create urgency for #28 to get two (or more) acceptable bids and then will announce #29 soon thereafter.
    It is not a question of more being better. Just smarter given the situation the league is in. Further, they CANNOT do anything about their (not there) weakest links at the moment.

    1) They are stuck with their weak owners (PSV, Hunts, Kroenke, Kraft, + Chicago).

    2) They are stuck with some poor leases until 2030 or beyond (Dallas, Chicago, Colorado).

    3) They are stuck with the Yankee stadium sutuation for a while.

    So what to do?

    1) Keep adding successful expansion teams. The NFL has 32 teams. NHL 31 with plans for 32. NBA & MLB have 30. Why stop at 28? That makes no sense.

    Further, as the only league expanding (OK, NHL is adding one), MLS gets the pick of the litter. Strongest ownership, best stadium deal, strongest support, etc.

    With every successful expansion team, MLS gains something (aside from $150 million).

    First off, the impact of the poor owners is diluted with more committed owners joining. These new groups are more engaged and aggressive and more likely to make $$ than some of the old owners who lag & then take a share of everyone else's profits at the end. I am sure the ATL, SEA, KC, POR, TFC, LAG type owners want more of their ilk in the league than the Kraft/Kroenke/Hunts. Fountains not drains.

    Second, the successful expansion teams may provide an incentive for poor owners to get out or change their approach.

    Each new expansion team selling out games (20k-50k) with a shiny new stadium raises everyone's franchise value. That increase might make it more palatable for long-time drain owners to sell to new blood, since they are recouping more $$ on the sale. And each success makes it more likely for new ownership groups to want to chase soccer, the new in thing. Particularly as we close in on hosting the WC in 2026.

    There is also the chance that old owners start to change their approach with all the new successes. ATL, Minny, Cincy. All doing well. Why not cash in with some more effort & engagement?

    Heck, it is not only expansion teams that make this argument. New ownership teams that best their predecessors are proof to the drains that they can do better (SJ, SKC + likely DC, CLB) if they are so inclined.

    Either way, the successful expansion teams help get rid of the lagging ownership groups.

    Lastly, it is really the only thing they can do until some of the leases are up. That, and try to leverage the 2026 WC. And in my view, you get more WC leverage with more teams, not less. Bigger footprint.

    Austin is planned for 2021. Cannot imagine #28 will be far behind (2022 at the latest). As a prospective new owner, I would want to be open for business before 2026 if possible. Wouldn't you?

    WC honeymoon gets MLS through 2027 & then you can start to work on upgrading the remaining sore spots.
     
  15. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn’t around in 1996 when the league was formed, but was the original intent of the league to develop the American player, or American soccer? That’s two very different things and, TBH, MLS needs to develop American soccer so that it can afford to develop the American player.

    That being said, every MLS team has an academy system that goes down to at least U15, with some going down to U12. They all have at least USL affiliates, with many having MLS2 teams. The quality of the average American player is better than its ever been and the academies are pushing out better and better players at a younger age, etc, etc. MLS is developing the American player, what it is currently lacking is developing the world-class American player. That’s something that is still being exported, largely to Germany.

    Now, a fair argument could be made that there was a “lost generation” between the generation that produced Dempsey, Beasley, Donovan, etc and the current generation, but that was largely a function of MLS being more worried about keeping the league alive, something that isn’t a concern right now...
     
  16. Hoosier388

    Hoosier388 New Member

    Mar 21, 2016
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    #41 Hoosier388, Jan 20, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
    CURRENT TEAMS
    Eastern Conference
    Atlanta United FC
    Chicago Fire
    FC Cinicinnati
    Columbus Crew SC
    D.C. United
    Montreal Impact
    New England Revolution
    New York City FC
    New York Red Bulls
    Orlando City SC
    Philadelphia Union
    Toronto FC


    Western Conference
    Colorado Rapids
    FC Dallas
    Houston Dynamo
    LA Galaxy
    Los Angeles FC
    Minnesota United FC
    Portland Timbers
    Real Salt Lake
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Seattle Sounders FC
    Sporting Kansas City
    Vancouver Whitecaps FC

    FUTURE TEAMS
    What conference do these 3 teams go to.
    Assuming
    Austin FC - -Western
    Inter Miami FC - Eastern
    Nashville - Eastern

    Who's the 28th team?
    Looks like St. Louis - Western
    Will finally be able to join the league if everything goes as planned over the next few months.

    Who comes after the 28th team?
    Teams 29 & 30 ----- Teams 31 & 32
    Sacramento
    Phoenix
    Las Vegas
    Detroit
    North Carolina
    Milwaukee
    San Diego
    Indianapolis - Indy Eleven proposed recently announced plans for a soccer stadium -
    https://www.fox59.com/2019/01/10/550-million-project-proposed-by-indy-eleven-includes-soccer-stadium
     
  17. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Im thinking 29, 30 will be eventually Sacramento and Phoenix/Vegas.

    Question. If the region came down to Phoenix/Vegas, and bids were relatively similar, which one would get the nod? Phoenix is the bigger population with a team that already attracts a sizable fanbase, but Vegas is all a sudden a voracious and desired sports market with less sporting competition to fight for.
     
  18. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Once we get to 28, instead of looking at #29, #30, #31, #32 etc. Gaber should work on teams like Chicago, Colorado, New England etc.....
     
  19. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Totally agree..
     
  20. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just received an email from Soccer Stadium Digest powered by Populous with the their handicapping for the next round of expansion. They rank it a dead heat between St. Louis, Phoenix and Sacramento for the 28th spot. They expect for Sacramento to announce shortly an additional billionaire investor. In fact they go as far as to say these three are of only viable candidates of the current applicators for expansion. In opinion this my very well be the reason for the "Soccer Don" talking about expansion past 28. There may be no cap on expansion, but I believe the new target is 30.
     

    Attached Files:

  21. mitzolil

    mitzolil Member

    Aug 16, 2015
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    PDF is corrupted and cannot be opened.
     
  22. mitzolil

    mitzolil Member

    Aug 16, 2015
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    https://www.sacrepublicfc.com/news_article/show/987395

     
    Futbol_Head and OWN(yewu)ED repped this.
  23. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    TrueCrew and QuietType repped this.
  24. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    thank freaking christ........

    Know full well by now absolutely nothing is a sure thing, especially with how appealing the St Louis and Phoenix markets would be to MLS, but that helps Sac a ton.
     
    QuietType and Futbol_Head repped this.
  25. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member+

    United States
    Oct 25, 2010
    Sun City, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This gives MLS a clear path for expansion to 30 clubs. All three have meant the full requirement put out by the league. I wouldn't surprised for MLS to announce all three in 2019.

    #28 - Sacramento (2021).
    #29 - St. Louis (2022).
    #30 - Phoenix (2022).
     

Share This Page