Which Teams Will Surprise and Which Teams Will Disappoint in Russia?

I cannot agree more, you cannot be disappointed by a nation you think that will not get past group stage unless they get trashed every match which is unlikely for almost everyone.

However, teams that qualify quite constantly for the world cup, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Iran, I can understand that their supporters would like them to progress world cup after world cup, and losing the same way everytime can be sort of disappointing, even if that’s what you expected since the beginning.

 

And that leads to another way of thinking.
I think there are little nuances too that have nothing to do with statistics or ratings when it comes to expectations.

You can look at teams and say they have veteran players who have been to the World Cup before and should be performing at a better level (even if they have low FIFA ratings or ELO or whatever) and teams that have never been to the World Cup or have not been to a World Cup for decades that people do have high expectations for.

Expectations and prognostications can be very subjective which is why people should not really be too judgemental on one another's personal expectations.

 

And don't even get me started on context and how teams did during qualification.

And those elements(and other elements like Group opponents and match ups)may conflict a bit with Historical expectations.

For instance Historically speaking would it shock me to see Argentina make it to the quarters or even the Semis?
Nah.

But based on how they looked in qualifying would it shock me if they did not even advance out of their group.
Nope.
We just don't know which team is going to show up or not show up.

 

See we have to agree to disagree. You are tying to tell people how to set their expectations when it comes to surprises and disappointments. As if there is some mathematical and statistical procedure everyone should use.

I see it differently.

 

Technically "surprise" and "disappoint" are associated with feelings and subjective /non-quantifiable issues ...
....so the title of the thread is misleading if using statistics should be the only way to evaluate things but that would be meandering into a philosophical debate.

 

Surprises: Australia and Tunisia
Disappointments: Mexico and Belguim
Dark horse: Colombia

 

You gotta it. Disappointment if all AFC reps fail to advance to R16.

Since 1990s, AFC reps managed to reach R16 on alternate WCs. 2018 could have meant a continuation of that trend. But no dice this time.

 

My money is on Australia to advance together with France. No way AFC teams will completely fail in back to back World Cups, especially with five teams being there for the first time. I have the feeling that one team will overperform. Looking at their group and their last displays I feel it is going to be Australia.

 

Maybe. However, friendlys have a tendency to provide a skewed perspective on a team. When I saw Australia in their last competitive matches (i.e. against Syria and Honduras) they looked absolutely dreadful. Granted, that was before Bert Marwijk took over. If he can turn that hapless bunch from the qualifying rounds into an R16 team, than he really is a miracle worker.

My guess though, is that all AFC teams will go home early from this World Cup.

 

I agree, trends are meant to be broken.

All AFC squads have shown shambolic preparation efforts. Maybe they will have more success, after WC expansion to 48-teams.

 

It is the first time I watched so many friendlies in a build up to a World Cup (almost 80%). The other World Cups before I just watched the actual Workd Cup games. Honestly I don't know how much truth is to be found in friendlies. I know that just looking at friendly results is deceptive and can't tell about how a team will perform in the tournament. But actually watching the matches can be an asset for predicting games. I will post my predictions for each group in the next days. It will be interesting to see how I will fare with my predictions compared to other who barely watched any friendlies. And yes the current Australia looks 1-2 steps above that of the qualfying. I said once in Group C thread that I would be surprised if they would take any points. I think it's likely that they will get at least a result in one game, maybe even agaibst both Denmark and Peru. We will see but this Australia won't be the punching bag of the group which I thought it would be some time ago.

 

I'm just interested to see who these over achievers and under achievers will be. Boring if the usual suspects go through.

 

Australia was good against France and can still advance but Peru looked very strong so I'm not that optimistic anymore. Tunisia will start off today. Mexico was not the disappointment but the biggest surprise so far. Belguim starts off today. Colombia tomorrow also.

 

Woot! AFC did not disappoint, as I thought it would.

AFC trend for progress out of group stage lives on: since 1990, AFC has managed to advance every other WC.

Russia 2018 was its turn to place at least 1 AFC rep into R16.

Kudos to Japan for reaching R16, with 1 W / 1 D / 1 L in group stage. Japan did so despite appointing a new NT coach just 2 months ago.

 

Ok regarding possible surprise teams I was completely wrong. Mexico advanced and therefore can't be considered a disappointment. Too early to judge Belguim. If they exit in the Round of 16 or even quarter-finls one coud say that I was somewhat right. Colombia just sneaked through today. To justify the label "dark horse" they will need to win 1-2 games in the knockout stage. I didn't mention Croatia as a dark horse in the list above (as I support Croatia and don't wanted to look biased) but whoever follwed my posts in Group D Thread knows that I predicted them to be a very dangerous team that can reach the semi-finals similiarly to what I thought about Colombia.

 

Hard to imagine Belgium going out to Japan in R16. And if they go out in the quarters to Brazil, well, it's Brazil. Maybe if they are routed 0-3 or so, but that seems unlikely.

Belgium-Brazil could be the match of the tournament.