I didn't specify this before, but I mean which outcome would be most surprising as of the start of the Group Stage, not after four matchdays for APOEL Nicosia and five matchdays for Manchester United. Zenit St. Petersburg-APOEL Nicosia finished and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_UEFA_Champions_League_group_stage#Group_G has the result which I won't post here because I didn't put an [R] in the topic title.
Poll is closed so I can't vote. I would've voted for Man Utd not progressing. But if "APOEL winning it's group" was an option I would've clicked on that one.