"When Liverpool beats Arsenal, I'm upset." - The Other Teams Thread

Discussion in 'Arsenal' started by Copperhead, Aug 26, 2012.

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  1. kanonier

    kanonier Member+

    Nov 7, 2005
    Bloomington, Ind.
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Watched the ManU-Newcastle game yesterday. If the referees don't want to be yelled at like that they should really take more definitive action and eject the coaches that are hindering their ability to call the game. There were guilty parties on both sides of that game.
     
  2. Munchlaxatives

    Aug 13, 2008
    Houston
    That's just not true. For any kind of statistical analysis, it's difficult to collect all data, but sampling is very effective. Do you think researchers collect data from all citizens when doing a survey on a nation?
     
    Super Llama repped this.
  3. wanye_stirrear

    wanye_stirrear Member+

    Sep 19, 2002
    Maryland
    [snip]..be careful everyone. The internet is large, but the world is pretty small.
     
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  4. billyireland

    billyireland Member+

    May 4, 2003
    Sydney, Australia
    Hence why I never put much weight in such surveys, either.

    See: US Presidential election surveys. ;)
     
  5. TxTechGooner

    TxTechGooner we're having fun here, no?

    Feb 24, 2003
    that linesman took it like a little schoolgirl. stand up to that old geezer...
     
  6. stoppre16

    stoppre16 Member

    Apr 19, 2007
    The idea that you need "full coverage" for the results to be meaningful is absurd. Detecting a pattern/signal should be well within their reach with the sample size available.
     
  7. billyireland

    billyireland Member+

    May 4, 2003
    Sydney, Australia
    Except that in one game things can go one way, and in another they can go the other. Opening up the chance of getting too much of the former and not enough of the latter (or vice-versa) makes the use of the data become more indicative and less definitive, the further you get from 100%

    How else were so many polls and surveys coming up with Romney to win, or come within 20-ish electoral college votes of Obama?
     
  8. thebigman

    thebigman Member+

    May 25, 2006
    Birmingham
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Why are we humoring billy? He is a biased troll who acts nice then goes back to the utd board like a gossiping female. Jitty has given a website of evidence but apparently it's not good enough. Utd glory supporters are the most self righteous dickheads on big soccer next to barca nuthuggers who pretend they are Spanish

    Lamb and Jitty arguing is like an old couple might I add. Very amusing even though I love u both
     
  9. Jamooky

    Jamooky Member+

    Mar 24, 2006
    Cleveland, OH USA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was once told that real Barca supporters never identify themselves as Spanish.
     
  10. Romfordray

    Romfordray Member+

    Oct 24, 2011
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think even the most optimistic of the ones here consider United as a rival beyond the fact that we play in the same league. Sad...but probably true.

    So, to play devil's advocate, why not take the cash? The top 3 positions are unlikely to change any time in the future, why not use the 24 million to bolster the squad or keep for a rainy day?

    And yes, we wrer pretty hard up but the cloud is moving off our heads now. There is always 2015.
     
  11. stoppre16

    stoppre16 Member

    Apr 19, 2007
    That's why you look at a large number of games (which they're doing) and if the number of "wrong" calls is not evenly distributed (which it does not appear to be) you have significant evidence of bias. And I'm not sure what you mean by 100%, there is no way to exhaustively sample this phenomena, nor is there any need to. We make statistical inference with much smaller samples than this on a regular basis for problems of much more importance.

    Survey results are typically unreliable since they only measure perception. Add to that blatant sampling bias and put the results in the hands of amateurs who know nothing about mathematics and statistics and you'll see plenty of people make fools of themselves. However, if you look at the handful of academics that made predictions based on adjusting the same survey results to account for their limitations, they were something like 95% accurate for all of the elections in November.

    Anyway, this really isn't that complicated. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the number of "wrong" calls does not even out. If you can point me to a similar study that shows otherwise go ahead and post a link, I'd be interested to read that too.
     
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  12. Munchlaxatives

    Aug 13, 2008
    Houston
    That's not really a good argument. Sampling works. You don't even need 1000 randomly selected people before you get accurate results. Here, read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)

    tl;dr: a randomized sample of a population can give you accurate readings for the entire population.
     
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  13. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    +1

    Also there are a number of other reasons why 100% coverage might not be as important as number of games covered. In some respects the season of 38 games is quite arbitrary. So it might be most valuable to work towards 100 Arsenal games or 100 Utd games or 100 Webb games if you don't really care about most of the teams.

    Personally I think this sort of open source fan project is the future of ensuring accountability.
     
  14. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Thanks. I think.

    :D
     
  15. InTheSun

    InTheSun Member+

    Oct 20, 2005
    The Andes Mountains
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ecuador
    What? Bad example. You might not know this, but there were a number of people/orgs who got it spot on - oh and bookies too.
     
  16. InTheSun

    InTheSun Member+

    Oct 20, 2005
    The Andes Mountains
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ecuador
    Just like here in BS, people put their own biases/agendas into it :D The hard data people = amazingly accurate.
     
  17. yossarian

    yossarian Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 16, 1999
    Big City Blinking
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to sidetrack things too much, but I don't think that's entirely accurate. Most of the state polls in the alleged "swing" states did, in fact, show Obama winning. Those were the polls that Nate Silver and other academics were using in their models predicting a fairly comfortable Obama victory. There were only a few outlier national polls showing Romney winning and then a bunch of skewed right-wing nutsos interpreting some of those polls combined with their own "evidence" that other polls were wrong that lead to some of the wacky predictions that Romney would win.
     
  18. VAGunner74

    VAGunner74 Member

    Feb 27, 2010
    South Riding, VA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I'd bet over half of Barca supporters couldn't find the city on a map. Let alone know which side they were on in the Spanish civil war.
     
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  19. billyireland

    billyireland Member+

    May 4, 2003
    Sydney, Australia
    The bookies had Obama at 4/7 very close ot the election. I know this because I was gutted to not have more expendable income, being on the back (and unsuccessful) end of a pricey application to immigrate permanently to Australia. 4/7 Might not be MASSIVE odds as a starting point, but for what those with half a clue knew, it was free money.
    Yoss, you are probably the one person I can safely say is more in-tune with the 'P&CE' mindset of those kn

    Stanger (who we both know well, and who I must admit to respecting a lot as an NFL fan) was 'sure' Romney was winning the election. So sure, I asked for odds to make a bet. He wouldn't take better than 8/1. This is from a VERY right wing voter. Did the polls reflect this, especially outside of Silver who was roundly villified from everyone left of HuffPo at the time? Not quite, but they put Rmoney far, FAR more in the frame than he wound up, otherwise his ridiculously named kin would be claiming he "never wanted to be president, so nyeh nyeh!" before the results came in, not a month after to try and childishly save face.

    Like I said, 4/7 odds ot Obama at the bookies... dead horse race at the surveys and polls. I ignore surveys and pollsfor this vety reason: they all too often have an axers to brind, or a dog in the fight at some end.

    I mean, in the fortnight leading up to election, Barbata, Superdave and the other P&CE regulars were taking Rmoney seriously off of polls and worried about the election. It says it all, polls without complete participatory coverage (eg: elections themselves) so, so easily skew outlooks, even from those with agendas.

    ---

    PS Just caught the whole of/end to Fight Club for the first time in a decade. Not the whole scene (never gully got a feel fot it), but the end shot of Ed Norton and Helena Botham Carter with the (even bad at the time) CGI of collapsing buildings is just awesome. Irrelevant, but it had to be said! Not quite Robert DeNiro-as-a-plumber awesome, but oooooooh it reminds you why you love films, and of how you are becoming the 'they don't make the like they used to' crowd! :D
     
  20. Tonerl

    Tonerl Member+

    Arsenal
    May 10, 2006
    Cincinnati, OH
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Got a kick out of this in a story I read on Soccernet (sorry no link right now as I'm on my phone and read this on the Soccernet app and I'm, you know, lazy):
    What the hell kind of journalist would seriously ask that question? I'm not paid money to cover football and I can think of a few dozen players in the world who are better than that fraud right off the top of my head.
     
    mebeSajid, DaPrince84 and thebigman repped this.
  21. scytheavatar

    scytheavatar Member

    Jun 12, 2010
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Most polls have Obama winning convincingly, Nate Silver is a poll aggregator and his model would have never predicted a convincing Obama victory if there were a lot of polls predicting a Romney win.

    But this has nothing to do with football, it's pretty clear that football is not baseball and isn't a sports where statistics mean a lot. It means something because managers do use it, but it's not easy to rate a player based solely on his statistic.
     
    red & wite army repped this.
  22. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Bad luck mate. Most of NZ seems to live there these days.
     
  23. thebigman

    thebigman Member+

    May 25, 2006
    Birmingham
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I know a few British ex pats out there...bit too many spiders and snakes for me
     
  24. yossarian

    yossarian Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 16, 1999
    Big City Blinking
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Again, in the individual swing state polls, Obama was shown leading....not by a huge amount...but leading nevertheless. Those polls did not show it as dead horse race. And Silver was only vilified by the right not everyone left of Huffpo. You're perception was skewed because those who were vilifying were rather loud and had a whole tv network behind them.
    C'mon, billy, Barb worries about everything. ;) And the fact was that the numbers, while comfortable for Obama, were close enough that an upset was not completely out of the realm of possibility....thus, Silver's giving Romney approximately a 28 percent chance of winning, if I recall his final prediction correctly. IOW, Nate would tell you to trust the math. :p

    ---
    With your feet in the air and your head on the ground
    try this trick and spin it, yeah
    your head will collapse but there's nothing in it
    and you'll ask yourself.....
     
    Tonerl repped this.
  25. billyireland

    billyireland Member+

    May 4, 2003
    Sydney, Australia
    Yeah kind of sucks but I might be back later in the year - long story. Meanwhile I will be off shaking things up in Christchurch for a few months mixing work and getting my thesis done, might try to get some work in Queenstown over the skiing season too.
     

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