Whate were the odds in the tournaments?

Discussion in 'Soccer History' started by PuckVanHeel, Jun 3, 2012.

  1. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Yeah, I suppose the Independent favouring Brazil and Germany was slightly more accurate than the bookmakers favouring Italy and the Netherlands in the end.

    The comment about Savicevic is in the caption - Motson just said "In Dejan Savicevic, the Yugoslavs have a midfielder whose transfer fee when he moves to Italy this summer might top the all-time record". In the end Papin was Milan's most expensive signing in the summer though. I'm not sure how close to the summer the preview was published but I guess in 1992 not 1991 although the most recent reference regarding Yugoslavia seems to be the friendly vs Sweden in 1991 as there is a talk-through of goals by Limpar and Savicevic in that game with a concluding remark that "Savicevic's vision could be the key to Yugoslavia's performances in Sweden". Yugoslavia were the team with comfortably the highest gpg rate in the qualifiers - exactly 3, with 24 goals in 8 games. Obviously the preview was produced before Denmark were confirmed so not right on the eve of the tournament - there is a preview by an American publication including Denmark and favouring Holland here:
    http://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/10/sports/10iht-rob__0.html
    "THE NETHERLANDS: Favorites. "Virtually everybody on our squad has won something this year with their clubs," points out Marco van Basten. "Everybody is full of confidence. It's been great in training - everybody is working hard for their places."
    Van Basten's own striking edge has more of the 1988 honing than its 1990 dullness. Gullit is fitter now, and Frank Rijkaard, "the poet footballer," is eager once more. Ron Koeman may be slow in defense, but has awesome power in his left foot. And young Ajax forwards Dennis Bergkamp and Bryan Roy are bursting into flower."
    Obviously Koeman was right footed.
     
    cr7torossi repped this.
  2. Vegan10

    Vegan10 Member+

    Aug 4, 2011
    You are welcome, mate.

    The questions you ask are legitimate. What merit does Argentina have in their favor of being ranked amongst the contenders for that tournament? They scrapped through against Peru in the WCQ's, in friendlies they drew with Mexico several times, lost to France and Norway, had an unconvincing 1-0 win vs Grasshoppers of Switzerland, only convincing win was against a weak Israeli side and then drew 0-0 with Atletico Barranquilla of Colombia. Some other squads like Brazil, West Germany, England, France, etc., had had better results leading up to the event.

    So apart from the reasons you mentioned, I believe it has more to do with the illusion of what could Maradona do, as Placar mentioned in Puck's post, stating that if he's on form that Argentina would contend because he was a game-changer. But apart from that, and the reasons that you mentioned before, there was no reason to justify for them to be ranked that high. The ELO rankings also confirm that they were out of the top 5 entering the tournament.
     
    msioux75 and Once repped this.
  3. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
  4. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Bookmakers make a living out of designating favourites and have an interest in assessing uncertainties and opportunities as good as possible.

    And I do feel that Once his remarks are illegitimate. Note how Placar their article notes that Bilardo prefers an "european style" team and that he left out some good names (according to Once Barbas wasn't a contender and playing well - according to Guerin Sportivo he did and Placar mentions him too). They say a few more things besides praising Maradona, and placing their bets on Maradona.
    And again: other big teams had some problems with infighting and injuries too (Brazil for example but also West Germany).

    But OK, it is clear that Once thinks the bookmakers were wrong. That is fine but please do not tell lies and say that I didn't answer the questions raised...
     
  5. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Compared with Brazil (also from South America), Argentina didn't play as many friendlies and test games.
     
  6. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    You are not being fair Puck. And I dont know why you get so jumpy. Does my wondering what made the bookmakers have Argentina as a favorite besides having Maradona and playing outside Europe bother you? Would you prefer it to be "case closed"? ;)

    BTW, I still dont understand what your insisting on Barbas is suppose to mean. I did not say he was not playing well. I said he was not as remarkable a performer as he had been in his Zaragoza days for what the DbsCalcio rates suggest, which is not false. I dont see why you have to say it is an illegitimate remark...

    Also, exactly which of my remarks (and I mean MY remarks, not what you might feel that I clearly think and such) do you feel are illegitimate?
     
  7. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    One thing that bothers me is that you take comme his answer for granted, as if that is a fully sufficient answer (the venue is a fully sufficient answer for you) while you challenge mine and even pretend that I didn't answer the questions you asked. That is illegitimate and please note how Placar (of Brazil) touches on the same basic points as I raised in post 51
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/...-the-tournaments.1945504/page-3#post-28826033

    As addition to Tele Santana his remarks (and the Guerin Sportivo match ratings for 1985-86), here the ones of Bobby Robson:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Note how Robson doesn't talk about Argentina (or another team) as if it is a one man army. He talks about their proficiency in general.

    But all of this is of course beyond the purpose of this thread: noting the odds of the bookmakers (which is a legitimate indicator) and who were seen as the contenders/favourites for each tournament in general.
    To repeat the original answer: yes, at the time of the Ladbrokes odds at 31/05/1986 the side-lining of Passarella was known. This was (probably) not know during the other posted odds (around the half of May) or the odds shortly after the draw was known (the ones of World Soccer).
    Of course, the bookmakers also knew about Maradona his supposed knee injury (and the projected surgery, which never came), and the unknowns surrounding that.
    The World Soccer preview that was published at the end of May mentions it too:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [Note how France and Argentina were the only ones with two 'superstars' highlighted]

    In the same issue Maradona is quoted as saying that England would be his most favourite opponent in the final for a beating.
     
  8. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    Mate, you keep speaking for me. Why dont you let me do my own speaking and comment on that instead of going on and on about what you think you know that I think?
    About Comme's post, I said that I understand how the venue could have been a factor (played in Latin America and not in Europe) and that the altitude plus heat was troublesome for everybody. The other part of his post was about there not being any great teams around (past it or not yet there) and that he read plenty of previews saying so. I asked him if he could post any, did not mean to bother you with my answer to Comme's post. I hope you did not find it illegitimate...

    I challenged yours?! Did not say that the info you provided was wrong nor did I deem the work of the bookmakers right or wrong. I simply asked about the factors that made them consider Argentina a top contender.
    I dont know if you are trying to pull my chain or being serious, but you did not answer my questions. I dont care to push it, because if you dont care to answer thats ok, but dont go around saying you did. That Placar article does not say what PVH said in that post. Illegitimate is for you to claim I said things I did not say.

    Nice article on Robson's thoughts. Duly noted what Robson does not say. Note that Robson does say "it's the hardest and most even World Cup"

    This Ladbrokes odds I had not checked before (I originally had quoted some other one). They have Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Mexico as the top four favorites... Anyways, do you know for a fact that it was known Passarella was not going to play the tournament at all at that time (May 31), because I was under the impression it became known later? (I hope you do answer this one...)
     
  9. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    The Placar article says how Bilardo prefers an 'European style' (I guess they mean an English/German style) and left some 'big names' out. It says how Bilardo aims to build a team around Maradona his attacking talents, and Placar also notes the quality of Borghi (who would flop) and Valdano as support acts (plus Passarella). They also do not make a big deal out of the preparation and qualification matches (which they do with other nations btw).
     
  10. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    The article does not say what you said in that previous post you mentioned, nor does it say anything about "big names" or that Bilardo "aimes to build a team around Maradona" perse. I will go ahead and translate the piece below:

    "Monumental Stadium of Nunez, April 20. River Plate faces Boca Juniors. For the first time in the history of the Argentine clasico the fierce rivalry between them is put aside. They prefer to sing hostile chants together against NT manager Carlos Bilardo, who had announced his list of 22 players for the WC three days prior.
    Bilardo, a 47 year old medic, has already become used to that: in three seasons in front of the Selección (period during which he tried 50 players) he practically co-existed with critisism. For the press, he was and is accused of "betraying the footballistic tradition of the country" by importing a European model of strength. From dropped players such as Fillol, Barbas, Díaz and Trossero he received qualifiers ranging from immoral to non-ethical. With previous manager Menotti he held a notoriuos verbal battle after El Flaco called him "a joke". The very president of Argentina, Raúl Alfonsín, took a positino against Bilardo after a survey showed that 80% of Argentines did not trust the work of the manager.
    "I look down and keep at it" Bilardo got used to repeating. Stranded and bombarded from all places Bilardo holds that nevertheless he counts with the absolute support and dedication of the group of players he choce, especially from the superstar Diego Maradona. "He is competent and serious", sustains the ace. "It is a high level group, we only need peace to work". It is precisely in the genius of 'Dieguito' that Bilardo, much like all other Argentine hearts, deposits the biggest hopes for a great campaign in Mexico, starting with moving on from Group A.
    With Maradona in good shape/form, Argentina can be considered one of the favorites to win the title, despite the heavy lack of confidence in them. If not, neither the emerging talent of 21 year old striker Claudio Borghi nor the experience of libero Passarella, 32, seem enough to save Bilardo and his Selección from being crucified."

    Then the table says as follows:

    - Strong points: an impressive attack, whith Maradona feeding the intelligence of Borghi and the efficiency of Valdano.
    - Weak points: the negatively charged atmosphere and the fragility of Passarella's mates in the defense are to worry about.
    - What they have that could destabilize rivals: the geniality of Maradona can decide any match. And there are Passarella's FKs.
    - Chances: in 1982 in Spain, the failure of Maradona was the failure of the team. Things remain the same.

    THAT is what the article says, mate.

    In another part of the mag a certain Divino Fonseca writes among other things:
    - that the refs were instructed to be rigid against violence, which surely should help Brazil and could result in the final victory of the so called football-art.
    - that despite all its problems Brazil leads the pack for its tradition and the potencial of its team.
    - that the France of Platini, but also of Giresse and Tigana, is also a contender.
    - that the Hungary of Détari has the same chances as the Argentina of Maradona and of Uruguay, absent in the last two editions but now re-emerging with its best generations of the last 30 years led by Francescoli.
    - that traditionals of 'football realista' like the current champ Italy, Germany and England never faced such a numerous group of teams appreciative of magic.
    - that encouraged by the variety of styles in the European nations and the results during preparatory stages, respected Spanish reporter and historian Pedro Escartín bets strong in his continent: "For the first time in 5 WC held in America, Europe has real chances of winning the title".

    Interesting.
     
  11. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    No it doesn't say that literally but it is pretty much the essence.

    Yes, I said that as well. That maybe this was assessed by the bookmakers too (in relation to the other conditions and circumstances obviously).
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/...-the-tournaments.1945504/page-3#post-28830811

    Why isn't that an answer of the question you raised? I think I provided some answers but you said I didn't (and again, it is al right to disagree with it or to not see it as sufficient).
     
  12. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    Thats right, Puck. Making your own interpretation of what you consider to be the essence of an article and claim that that is what the article says is legitimate but what I said about Barbas is not...
     
  13. Vegan10

    Vegan10 Member+

    Aug 4, 2011
    #88 Vegan10, Oct 14, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2013
    Thanks for taking your time in translating. That's the way things were viewed in Argentina at the time: a team that was considered an enigma where few believed that they could really win it all. But many experts had bet on Maradona to be the main star of the event, something which he did not like to carry with him. But it was also a tournament where other players were expected to make a great impact. Mundo Deportivo mentioned on the eve of the event that the Italian NT picked Butragueno to be the star of the cup ahead of Maradona or Platini, and that Spain was another contender: http://hemeroteca-paginas.mundodeportivo.com/EMD01/HEM/1986/05/30/MD19860530-020.pdf

    I own some newspapers from Argentina where Menotti stated that the new king of football at the WC level could come from either Platini, Maradona, Rummenigge or Preben Elkjær, etc...

    Lots of talk back in those days about that Danish player, which some had put at the same level of Maradona, Platini and other former all-time greats. But Preben Elkjær was no joke, between 1984-1986, his fame had reached a substantial level in the views of some and he had the skill and attitude; only downside was perhaps his hot-tempered head.

    Another aspect you translated was in regards to what was expected in Argentina's group, with the words that it was a "high level group". Well, Enzo Bearzot had stated that this group was more difficult than the one he encountered in 1982. http://hemeroteca-paginas.mundodeportivo.com/EMD01/HEM/1986/05/30/MD19860530-029.pdf



    Thanks for providing these articles. That's pretty much the way I remember things. A wide open even event where the cup was up for grabs by a dozen teams or so.

    J.J. Castillo, reporter for Mundo Deportivo, also stated: "...perhaps the most open World Cup in the history..."
    http://hemeroteca-paginas.mundodeportivo.com/EMD01/HEM/1986/05/30/MD19860530-028.pdf

    Anyway, it's good to see things from different sources (I may have some previews in Italian newspapers or some Argentinian ones, but will need to search).
     
    Once repped this.
  14. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Did you note the Guerin Sportivo ratings? (which is an average of other ratings)

    What is your aim of all this?

    Why do you say that I don't answer the questions?

    It is ofc pure guesswork what informs the estimates of the bookmakers.
     
  15. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Over here many experts with a qualified opinion had placed their money on Maradona. They noted that Platini and Rummenigge had tailed off in the second half of the club season. Those were also near the end of their career (like someone said in the other thread).

    Pelé favoured Maradona too:
    http://kranten.kb.nl/view/article/id/ddd:011207208:mpeg21:p023:a0322

    But probably few had expected the level he would show at the event (the level at the club season was of a lower level, probably).
     
  16. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    I'll post other info in another thread (or another post) but this is how the odds developed, which I could find in the archives.

    At 10/06/1986 it was:
    Brazil 9:2
    Argentina 9:2
    Denmark 5:1
    West Germany 7:1
    Italy 8:1
    France 9:1
    http://kranten.kb.nl/view/article/id/ddd:011207217:mpeg21:p019:a0275
    (there are actually a few articles who confirm these odds, such as http://kranten.kb.nl/view/article/id/ddd:010610982:mpeg21:p020:a0277)

    At 21/06/1986, when all quarter-finalists were known, it was:
    Brazil 5:2
    Argentina 7:2
    France and West Germany 7:1
    Mexico 12:1
    Spain and Belgium 20:1
    (somehow it doesn't state the ones of England; article state that Spain and Belgium had the least chance and France + West Germany came third in the ranking. Brazil first and Argentina second.)
    http://kranten.kb.nl/view/article/id/ddd:010948828:mpeg21:p019:a0371
    http://kranten.kb.nl/view/article/id/ddd:011207227:mpeg21:p039:a0874
     
  17. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    Check my post at #64... I dont say that you did not answer my questions. I simply say I dont understand what you meant with a certain statement of yours and ask you again about it. This you never answered. Then I present a number of factors that suggest that there was not that much to find beyond the fact that the team had Maradona plus some not much fancied names. And then I ask you (again) if you know what Bilardo said exactly, because you have shown me I should not trust your interpretetions as they dont always coincide with what it has actually been said. This, you never answered.

    In your response to that post (#66 I think), instead of addressing or commenting on the issues I raised, you simply continued saying that you had already answered the questions and pretty much accused me of simply not liking such answers because I believe the "Maradona dragged a mediocre team to glory narrative". Previously you had already accused me of being a Maradona fan that likes to make people believe things that it was a bad team... I was asking a few questions, whats with that reaction, mate?!

    Later on you said that you found my remarks (like that, in plural) illegitimate, and claimed I had said some things about Barbas that I had not said. Is that legit? Of course, you never commented on that again.

    Then I asked you something about Passarella and you did not answer either...

    Then I had to take the trouble of translating a piece you posted to show it was not saying things you were claiming it was in fact saying. How is that a legitimate thing to do and not what I said (which is not the same as what you said that I said) about Barbas?!

    I have seen your Guerin table. Pretty much the same numbers shown in DbsCalcio, something I had already brought up myself.

    I just did not quite understand some of your claims, but you got so jumpy when I asked, quite quickly started accusing me of things, speaking for me...
     
  18. Vegan10

    Vegan10 Member+

    Aug 4, 2011
    The Rummenigge stance was understandable. After all, he had had some injury issues, even though he still was viewed as one of the top bets. But what is strange is in regards to Platini. Many had placed their bets on him, where it was very even with Maradona. Originally I had posted this article:

    But also the fact that one other article I provided recently stated that Platini considers himself to be at the top of his game and that the French team is stronger than in 1982.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    Where is the rest of my post? Wont you comment or explain any of the rest? Had I known that I would not have taken the trouble of explaining so much...
    And why do you take it away from this thread and move it to the Best Players of the 1986 WC thread. What we are discussing here is not performances during the tournament itself...

    Anyways, regarding the couple of issues from my post you did address, I did not claim that Bilardo had not said such things. I just asked you if you knew what Bilardo had said exactly. That you did not answer, for some reason. You either dont know or you dont want to share it. But dont continue claiming you answered, because you did not. And its not that I dont believe you, more like I just dont trust you. So, what did Bilardo say exactly?

    About Passarella, you did say that and then I asked you if you knew that for sure, because I was under a different impression. That you did not answer. Where did you get it that it was known by 29/5 that Passarella was going to miss a couple of games? I just want to know where you got that from.

    About the Placar article... What the article actually says is up there, I translated it. You are welcome. It does not say that some big names were cut (though they were), it says that some of those cut players called Bilardo all kinds of shite. It does not say that Bilardo aimed at building a team around Maradona's talent. I does, on the other hand, say that all hopes (Bilardo's and those of the Argentine people) are placed on Maradona's geniality, and that the success of the team pretty much depends on him. This is actually said in the article. No need to make interpretations. Its not even a hint. It is said. No need to go fetch it far nor close nor nothing.
     
  20. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
    #95 JamesBH11, Oct 21, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2013
    Well to my best memory Brazil and France were both favorites to win WC86 (based on their names, their form before WC) Come after them were
    1- Brazil (looking strong to revenge last upset in 82)
    2- France (the Euro crown team with the same "carre' magiques look set to make the history for France)
    3- Germany ( a great powerhouse with strong squad as usual)
    4- Argentina (another powerhouse with Maradona in top form)
    5- Italy (nothing but the WC holder )

    Until now, many still regarded the game Brazil vs France like an "EARLY FINAL" of that tournament and one of the best WC games ever in history.

    Let's look at the PREVIEW game (at time)

    BRAZIL-FRANCE:
    Brazilian goalkeeper Carlos has shut out each of the four opponents his country has faced, although Spain's Miguel Fernandez will argue that he had a legitimate goal disallowed in Brazil's 1-0 opening-game victory.

    Either way, Carlos and the Brazilian defense have not been beaten. In France, however, they face their most serious challenge yet. Carlos believes that the outcome might even come down to luck.

    "When teams such as Brazil and France meet," he said, "the victory goes to the one who takes better advantage of the opportunities. When they play more or less the same way, the luckiest one will win."

    Brazil has looked increasingly impressive as the tournament has progressed and has the added advantage of having played all of its matches in Jalisco Stadium. All the same, its bearded philosopher and star, Socrates, is justifiably concerned about France's midfield might.

    [​IMG]

    In order to contain the brilliance of Michel Platini, Alain Giresse, Jean Tigana and Luis Fernandez, Socrates said, Brazil will have to employ more of a zone defense than a man-to-man.

    The French, meanwhile, will be trying to keep in check Brazil's two emerging stars, Careca and Josimar, while hoping that Zico has an off day.

    Of the four quarterfinals, this one seems guaranteed to produce soccer of the highest caliber. Whichever team wins will become the World Cup favorite.
     
  21. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
  22. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Sid Lowe has to be ranked among the very worst writers in the business today (yes, much worse than Wilson). His latest book about Barca vs Real is the same. I flipped it through and some sections are really baffling. In a few cases he uses a few remarks of the one side (e.g. Barca) to justify a claim he makes about a person/event of the other side (e.g. Real Madrid). And that is then seriously put forward as a proper justification of an objective observation or factual statement or so, as part of a historical narrative.
     
  23. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

    Sep 17, 2004
    Yeah kinda agree ... those names were big in Football images, but I found some articles were a bit hard to swallow
    but who am I to judge them .... well

    Like in Skysports Football, there are tons of writers, but only one "Martin Tyle" that I found so interesting, since all he wrote was based on FACTS and STATS -
    Otehrs were full of "English, or UK " praisers no more no less!
    Guillem Balague was teh worst, as he claimed to be a Liga (Spanish Football) expert, but often his "critics or viewpoints" were off the track of reality - purely "commercial" materials
     
    PuckVanHeel repped this.
  24. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/soc.culture.croatia/T2bN0hlPzPY
    Bookmakers odds for Euro 96
    LONDON, June 3 (Reuter) - Germany remain 4-1 favourites to win this
    month's European soccer championship and their striker Juergen Klinsmann
    is favourite to be top scorer, British bookmakers Ladbrokes said on
    Monday.
    Klinsmann is quoted as 9-2, despite being suspended for the Germans'
    opening match against the Czech Republic on Sunday.
    The odds on England winning the championship, which begins at Wembley on
    Saturday, have been lengthened following their recent tour of China and
    Hong Kong.
    The host team are now 7-1 to win the championship against 6-1 last week.
    The odds quoted by Ladbrokes are as follows:
    Winning country:
    4-1 Germany
    5-1 Italy
    11-2 Netherlands
    6-1 France
    7-1 England
    8-1 Spain
    10-1 Portugal
    12-1 Croatia
    16-1 Russia
    25-1 Bulgaria, Romania, Denmark
    50-1 Switzerland
    66-1 Czech Republic
    80-1 Scotland
    100-1 Turkey
    Top scorer:
    9-2 Juergen Klinsmann (Germany)
    5-1 Patrick Kluivert (Netherlands)
    8-1 Fabrizio Ravanelli (Italy)
    10-1 Dennis Bergkamp (Netherlands), Davor Suker (Croatia)



    Hmmm, why did we not all have a bet on Shearer for top scorer (>10/1)? To be fair he'd been on an International goal drought before the tournament!
     
  25. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    An each way bet on the Czechs would have been great though!
     

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