What Polling Got Wrong (Gets Wrong?), the 2018 Edition

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Dr. Wankler, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  2. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    ceezmad repped this.
  4. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  5. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    #30 Q*bert Jones III, Mar 11, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2019
    I'm not sure where to put this extremely local news story, so why not here:
    https://hudsonvalleyone.com/2019/03...6nRL5grI3wLu78HBcBBROdHy6YJa2LCTb7vFsGQZPD6cs

    It's a discussion of the complete cratering of the Republican Party in one county in upstate NY. In the last 23 years, registered Dems have doubled their numbers and Republicans don't bother to run candidates anymore. The author attributes the changes mainly to 1)demographic shifts and B) the flight of socially liberal/fiscally conservative voters away from Republicans in the age of W and Trump.

    Republicans say their only hope is that centrist Dems and Looney Leftists find irreconcilable differences.
     
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  6. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not what they got wrong, but analysis about the "swinging" suburban districts.

    https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...ommon-than-you-think?utm_source=pocket-newtab
     
  7. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    "Congressional Density Index" :ROFLMAO:
     
  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    538 on polling and why outlier polls are/can be a good thing.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-handle-an-outlier-poll/

    They also link to an example of Australia and how pollsters did not want to publish polls because they went against other polling, so they felt that it had to be wrong and did not want to be embarrassed of publishing bad polling, even if it turned out that they were correct at the end.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html
     
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  9. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There are also other polling aspects which need to be considered, and probably given different weight/importance values
    size of poll
    error margin
    type of poll
    method of poll
     
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So what else did they get wrong?

    Well last night I picked up a call from a number I did not recognize, it turns out it was Gallop polling company.

    They only asked about Sanders, Biden, Warren and Trump (I should have asked why not include the others).

    So depending on sample size, Warren's Latino approval ratting will skyrocket, maybe it will be 1 out of every 3 Latinos approve ;)
     
    Dr. Wankler and American Brummie repped this.
  11. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    A lot of the hypothetical Trump v. X matchups have been whittled down to Sanders, Warren and Biden. Harris and Buttigieg are the only others who get the occasional inclusion. I'm hopeful we can get this thing down to 7-8 going into NH and IA and no more than 4-5 by the time the SC primary results come in (Feb 29).
     

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