I want him to be as it would good experience, especially since Canada is in the "group of death" with both Honduras and Costa Rica. Honduras has killed Canada in the last 2 WC qualifiers too. He could always move to a new team after the Gold Cup though. Although that would be fast approaching the European season and like you said wouldn't give him too much time to focus on his club, assuming he does move. It could always be a case where his club wants him to gain that tournament experience and let's him go.
38 goals/6 assists in 69 matches in the league. He's only 21 or 22. Should go for minimum 6 million with a maximum of 9 million. It'd have been great if his transfer could beat Jozy's 10 million back in 2008 when he moved to Villareal. Even after 9 years, it seems far from being broken.
Until Canada makes it to the Hex in this generation, I don't think you should make that bet! It's not just about who you have on the team sheet. Canada has some OK MLS talent, and some stronger talent (e.g Larin, Davies) coming up, but they have major holes. Importantly, they have a history of choking/losing. That wears on a team's psyche, and makes them play worse than the sum of their parts. Lastly, they don't do well in the heat/crowd pressure of CONCACAF away games in Central America. You need to win those games to advance, and Canada has not shown that they can do that.
The problem has to go deeper than that. Nations like Jamaica, Panama, and Trinidad have substantially less than Canada does. In the case of Jamaica and Trinidad, there are ZERO fully pro clubs and near non-existent opportunity for youth (beyond begging for USL contracts once they turn 19/20), much fewer facilities (all of which are of vastly inferior quality), and almost infinitely less money (the CSA makes the JFF and TTFA look like paupers). As lackadaisical as you think the Canadians are with regard to soccer, I guarantee you they're MUCH more professional and serious in their approach than Trinis and Jamaicans. Despite all of this, Jamaica and Trinidad have both been stronger than Canada in recent years. Panama, which is only moderately better off than those two, has put up results superior to all of them and competed much more evenly with regional powerhouses like Mexico, CR, and the USA. Infrastructure can't explain that. Beyond Mexico and the USA, Canada has just about all of CONCACAF beat soundly in the infrastructure/resources department. Larin is not going to get a work permit in the UK (he has the caps, but Canada's ranking is far too low), so I'd write both the EPL and the Championship off as options.
Theoretically, he is Commonwealth, so maybe that would help to get work permit (I do not know)? He may choose to stay in MLS - he gets plenty of playing opportunity here, and for Canada national games he would not have to fly back from Europe...
Only EPL club would pay for him 10 million... No other continental side would put this kind of a money for a Canadian, with MLS experience only.
I'd agree If they do, then Holy Smackems. I could see him being bought by a relegation fodder club like a Bournemouth or Watford. But it wouldn't be such a smooth ride. Though Bouremouth has Joshua King and Watford has Troy Deeney. 2 decent strikers who are the best those kinda clubs can get. I wish him luck if he will go the way of the PL though I'd be curious to see how he might do in a Serie A or La Liga.
I doubt Serie A or La Liga would be interested. They look more keenly at Latino talents from SA, and they have large scouting operations set up there. They could probably get someone similar at a fraction of a price. It is not easy for a young player like this... How much does he make in MLS anyway?
F%$k: $192k total... PEANUTS!!!! If he was out of contract, I would almost suggest Legia Warsaw should get him to alleviate striker issues after Niko and Prijo left us... But Legia would never pay for a player over Euro 1.5 million, so if league would not let him go for 3.5 to Oostende... (or whoever was borrowing them the money!) So, when he runs out of contract he can move to Europe without league's permission?
Yeah it seems that La Liga/Serie A turn their nose up at MLS talent (Ligue 1 simply can't afford our guys). So more than likely he will go to the PL. Just hope he can avoid a Jozy-Sunderland decision. Wherever he goes will be the biggest move of a Canadian since Hargreaves went to Munich and later United.
Yeah it is insane he's own $192 K. I still doubt a club like Oostende would really bid that on him or that MLS would take it. He's def worth minimum 5 million. I figure he goes for 7-8 million.
I think biggest League One teams could afford, but they have so much African talent available, that they simply do not bother. I think him being Canadian though may be an obstacle - if EPL won't pay for him, no other league will, so getting that work permit would be crucial.
If he can speak French, it might interest some French sides I honestly would wager his best chances are at relegation fodder clubs in the PL or Bundesliga or one of the top 3 sides in leagues like Belgium/Portugal/Turkey. But like you said more than likely it will be the PL. He seems to be a legit starter for Canada so maybe the WP might be heavily influenced in his favor. Honestly I can't even think about other Canadian transfers throughout European clubs. I just figure this is the biggest one either in terms of $$$/press and potential influence on their NT.
I don't believe the Commonwealth status gives Canadians any kind of advantage at all when it comes to being able to play in the UK.
The current darling of Canadian transfer fees is Tomasz Radzinski. He's commanded the 1st and 3rd highest transfer fee involving a Canadian international. That first move was from Anderlecht to Everton. Its unclear to me whether MLS will get more than that for Larin. [They should, but remember that Dempsey's move from NE was much less than that. Euro clubs try to lowball MLS, and have been very effective at doing so]. The highest transfer fee commanded by MLS for a Canadian player must be a very small sum. Kevin Harmse from Vancouver to Tromso for less than a million? [I had thought it was Doneil Henry to West Ham, but I forgot that went in a roundabout fashion thru Cyprus.] Just for the sake of comparison, here are the top 5 transfer fees involving US internationals. As noted before, the highest fee MLS has received for a US international was Jozy's transfer to Villarreal. 4 of the top 5 transfer fees MLS has received have been for NY Metro/NYRB players (Jozy, Miazga, Howard, and Tim Ream). The other was Maurice Edu's move to Rangers.
I'm aware of that potential workaround, but how likely is he to go for 10 Million pounds ($12.8M)? It seems unlikely to me, which is why my original post effectively wrote off the idea. He's being projected in this thread at $6-9M (probably the most optimistic projections one could find). Recorded offers are only in the $3-4M range. Transfermarkt (not always accurate, I know) has him at 2.5M Euros. If he got to 10 Million pounds, he'd be shattering the Canadian transfer record. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I've seen precious little to justify expecting it. Larin's not looking like a 10M pound transfer at this point. He'll probably max out at half of that in an optimistic scenario.
I think a good comparison in terms of price range might be what MLS got for Fabian Castillo, who lest we forget was at the time under contract until 2019 (very different to the contract situation of Larin). MLS got a total of 4.5 million for the initial loan and then full transfer. And that was more than the league got for a guy like Fredy Montero. The reason the league got so much for Jozy was that he was still a teenager. Villarreal was paying more for potential than a finished product.
I have been very negative towards Canada in most of this thread. I am going to bring some positive vibes and say if they bring their best to the Gold Cup they should be competitive assuming teams like Hionduras and Costa Rica bring "B" teams. That could help them and them advance and bring them good confidence. On the flip side though. If they still lose to those teams though and somehow get eliminated,...
Whether they are facing Honduras or Costa Rica "A" or "B" teams, Canada still has very little in defense. They have some MLS-level talents, but that doesn't elevate them over the Central American nations, Jamaica, or US/Mexico. For their recent game against Scotland, they called up defenders who now play for the San Francisco Deltas, FC Edmonton, Falkirk, and Vasas. [Costa Rica currently has defenders in La Liga, Premier League, Serie A, Celtic, etc. So a "B" team might be their MLS and domestic players.] Oddly there are now 4 players who've been capped by Canada in the last year on the San Francisco Deltas (Kyle Bekker, Nana Attakora, Karl Ouimette, and Maxim Tissot). All of them are former MLS players in their 20s, who never really "made it." Canada's hype-to-failure rate seems remarkably high. [Hype by Canadian standards]