It's a 4 year window a year from now. That's ample opportunity to integrate a keeper through the myriad of games of lesser importance we have through a cycle. What you describe is the most conservative mindset in the history of the sport. How did we find out about Guzan initially? He got trials. And we had Howard then. Guzan will be 38-39 at the end of the cycle and sucks now. There's nothing safe about that bet or his hands. Not sure he's All-State, let alone All-Nation at this point. It's a sucker bet.
I'm about as anti Eurosnobbery as it gets here. But you're totally underselling his qualifications. He established that he was #1 at the end of the season. He was on the #2 club in Belgium. That's not any club there. He will most likely be starting in Champion's League next season, after starting in Europa League and impressing there against quality comp. He performed well for the u-23's against Colombia. I don't know he's the best option, but those are good arguments for him to feel like he has as good as or a better chance as anyone, especially when considering his massive potential.
Age does not matter much at the Keeper position. I just think most managers will want the veteran who has actually played big matches. Sure there is time to integrate some new keepers but I doubt it will happen as long as Howard and Guzan are healthy. I am not saying it is impossible for any of the new kids to get the majority of playing time next cycle. I am just laying out the odds. And odds are in Guzan's favor in my eyes.
The average one shows their age in their late 30's. Some just have more ability to lose than others. Howard and Rimando haven't been among the best keepers in MLS this year. Per estimated goals saved, it's been Melia, Hamid, and Gonzalez. Rimando has been average and Howard sub par. Howard's days are numbered. He maybe could get up for big games the rest of this cycle, but that definitely should be it, if he can even do that. Guzan is not one of these people that even has anything to lose. He's proven he's not good enough now, let alone later. Not good enough for the EPL or the USNT. We have a higher standard at that position and we've evolved to the point where our xi+ should be able to play at that level or an equivalent. Just because a guy like Altidore didn't perform there doesn't mean he couldn't. He's talented but he choked to only score 1 goal in 42 where he scored nearly a goal per game in the Eredivisie (there is a sizable gap between the leagues but nowhere near that). And just because others like Roldan aren't, doesn't mean they can't. Just haven't received the opportunity yet due to circumstance. Being an nt regular will provide them that opportunity. Guzan is just untalented. He lacks range, anticipation, coordination, decision-making, distribution, etc. Odds should be hugely against him playing more than anyone in the next cycle. If he does, the next coach has really screwed up, with a level of conservatism that's really toxic. He'd be living in the past.
Yes. I pay more attention to this position than any other and I agree with this, Guzan is terrible. His lateral range is subpar, he gets beat high all the time, he is typically in no mans land and his anticipation is piss poor.
The thread is not about personal opinions on who is poor and who is less poor.. The thread is about which Keeper will get more playing time in the next World Cup cycle. And odds are it will be Guzan if he wants the job.
Guzan's only edge is he's a veteran and has years of top flight experience. But since he's back in MLS, will his value still set him apart? He'll be in contention though I think it's right our Young Guns get their opportunities.
Depends on the manager and how things go. But if I were setting up betting odds his would be the overwhelming favorite.
Guzan could be the most likely player but still have a probability below 50 percent. That's because other than Guzan, the goalkeeper who will play the most between World Cup 2018 and World Cup 2022 has little to no caps now. Two years ago, did anybody know how important Pulisic would be? It's like the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the best team could have much better odds than the second best team but still have a probability below 50 percent.
The odds on favorite is Horvath for 2022. Being no2 or 3 for 2018 will give him a boost. Maybe he's no1 or no2 for 2019 Gold Cup but for final round of qualifying in 2021, he should easily have the no 1 spot even with lots of competition from Hamid/Steffen/Gonzalez. I still believe in Guzan. Though maybe it's just nostalgia. His move to MLS won't help his NT chances IMO.
I think the goalie position is where experience is taken with more importance than actually being physically better. I believe we have younger goalies that are quicker off their line than either Howard or Guzan but they are not playing in top leagues. Horvath may be the next in line for the next USMNT goalie.
I still think Brad Guzan can be a good keeper, but his form the past year has caused my confidence in him to be a bit more fragile. It will be interesting having him play in the same league as guys like Bill Hamid, Jesse Gonzalez and Zack Steffen, as it will give us an opportunity to compare their abilities and form more directly. I don't think we'll see the type of game-changing goalkeeping play we've grown accustomed to in the 2022 qualifying cycle, but I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the pool. Hamid is super talented, and if he can improve his consistency and stay healthy, is a solid option. Horvath is only 22 and has the potential to be a very good keeper. Steffen was clutch at the 2015 U-20 World Cup, and is now earning consistent club minutes for the first time, also at age 22. And Jesse Gonzalez has been one of the best young keepers in MLS the past two years and just committed to our program. Those are three good prospects, and they are all under 23 years old.
After the 2018 World Cup we have about a year before we have another competitive game, we need to use that time to test out the younger GKs at the international level. Gonzalez, Steffen, Horvath, and Hamid (older than the others, but young enough for the next cycle) should all get extended looks during that time. As to the original question, if you're straight up just asking who will get the most caps/minutes between the two WCs...it's impossible to say and IMO not that important, we have quite a few options, the important thing is to find 2 international-caliber GKs from that group by about summer 2020.
I can agree with everything you said here in this post. I just think the new manager will basically say it is Guzan and the field when it comes to odds of getting the most minutes. The thread is not about should young kids play It is about predictions of who will play the most. And I base my prediction on who I think has the best odds of starting.
Howard should get exactly one cap after the World Cup. Give him a testimonial at either RBA or MetLife in late 18/early 19, but then let him ride off into the sunset, the program needs to find his successor.
He should have done that post 2014. Guzan was quality back then. Rimando as well. And Hamid or Sean Johnson could have been worthy no3's.
he should have made the move abroad. seemingly picking up injuries once the season has ended is not really helpful. He def should have had interest from at least clubs in Belgium or Turkey.
Well Yes. My point being he could have retired post Belgium. After 1 heck of a performance. Allowed Guzan and others their time in the spotlight.