Westside's 2017 Review Manifesto & 2018 Outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by Westside Cosmo, Dec 4, 2017.

  1. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that is a bit unfair - most Dynamo fans realize MLS isn't at the level of Liga MX . Elis is a national-team level player for Honduras (which sometimes doesn't say too much) so you can look at his time on the bench and loan by Monterrey as maybe stuck in a bad spot on that squad and needed a better opportunity.

    What is sobering - and I think it may be Cabrera publicly calling out the owners in a way with his postgame comments - is the acceptance that the Dynamo will always be a low table salary spend squad. Looking at some salary stats from this year (salary - does not include transfer fee investments, just contract pay) the Dynamo were 20th out of 21 teams at $5.2 million and the Dynamo did not have a single player in the top 50 (FIFTY!!!!) of guaranteed annual salary. Cubo was highest at 56th and $650k guaranteed. Elis at 96th is the only other player in the top 100.

    Yeah, the bottom half of the league is clustered between $5.2 and $6.5 million of spend so the difference between 20th and 11th and spend isn't huge but the top 7 teams in spend are all over $10 million. Spending is no guarantee of success but it does help the odds.

    A team like the Dynamo that does not develop its own players is not going to beat the market on returns on player acquisitions and investment over the long-term. At some point you have to put real cash at risk, even in MLS.
     
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  2. 7seven7

    7seven7 Member+

    May 5, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    we were in the western conference finals. No matter how many nits you pick, that is a successful season. couple that with the hard fact we were in LAST place last year, this season was two wins away from being the single greatest season in MLS history.

    WC not named a top six coach? I know he shouldn't be named coach of the year but not even in top six? I honestly can not think of a logical reason why he shouldn't be recognized for what he's done this year.

    For next year:

    Does Rico accept his apparently new role as bench warmer?

    Will Manotas live up to even the smallest portion of his hype?

    Will Beasley retire?

    Will Martinez get demonstrably better or stay lost in the middle of the field?

    Will we remain a "speed only" team or develop some sort of plays in the final third?

    Will Human Toast 2 ever see the field again? If so, can I keep from running on the field and stabbing him with a rusty fork?

    Cubo?

    Derrick?

    Do we even have an academy anymore? Will we see a young player come up from there or RGV?

    Will I get free beer at Pitch25 for being a STH?

    Will the field be terrible again?

    Will we play a J-League team in the charity cup?

    PS

    Will stumbledore still suck? (the answer to this one is yes. Yes he will still suck)
     
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  3. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #28 juvechelsea, Dec 5, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017
    Which one are we talking about, Torres or Elis? I recall there being another player we loaned out who couldn't hack Mexico either.

    I find the "but he did x elsewhere" argument only compelling if you fold it into some larger concept. Otherwise particularly with people who then performed here, the obvious retort is "but he did y here and that's more important." I have an idea why Torres didn't do so hot there, and it gets to fundamental aspects of him as a player, his abilities and limits. I don't see anything that depth being argued in saying "well Elis couldn't hack Monterrey." It's just no context assertion. Maybe they didn't like his training intensity or antics. He was our most consistent strong player here. So what. At least the people talking about cards HERE are talking about what we can objectively see, HERE.

    Do Quioto or Manotas get a pass for not coming from a weaker roster spot in a better league? Some of the best players in franchise history come from Olimpia's Other More Southerly Team. Manotas barely saw the field for some random Barranquilla team I've never heard of. Giles Barnes was fresh off Doncaster when he came here. Relative to Manotas, wouldn't flopping in England or Mexico actually be a leg up in terms of quality? This argument seems better applied to small fry sputtering along in random leagues. Ibeagha in the Icelandic Beer Division. The second division Spaniards who looked out of depth. I mean, Mexico or England at least means two fairly high level teams (us and them) thought the player was good.

    To me it's all data points into the calculator, and particularly with current players, more like, what have I seen with my own two eyes. That then needs to be cross-checked by whatever Monterrey is demanding and our roster/cap situation. But in terms of player quality, we already know what we've seen, why bring Monterrey in unless it expands our understanding of the player. This argument reeks of the French philosophy joke of we know it works in practice but does it work in theory?

    Really, distill it down, we either agreed to a purchase option with a pre-set figure or not, and that's either worth it or not. If we didn't agree a figure we are probably screwed in multiple ways, he has probably sold his value to Monterrey as a player or an asset, and bid up his market. If Jordan messed that up we probably can't afford him and while we applaud our time with the player you would then have to grade Jordan down towards a D for the structure of our relationship. In our position we really don't need one year rentals or players who come on loan and with positive play bid their way out of our financial capabilities. Put differently, where success here would ensure they never return. That precisely backwards of the incentives you want. If that ends up true no wonder do-nothing Escalante is the ever-returning loan player.
     
  4. nbrooks503

    nbrooks503 Previously Held @Dynamo Hostage From 2008-2019

    Jun 1, 2008
    Disgruntled Former STH - Fairweather Bandwaggoner
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What I fear is that the folks who pay the bills will have the same opinion and without paying things forward the Dynamo will continue to be mediocre. If we don't lock down some of the loaners that performed so well this year, then we're doomed to keep looking through Mexico, Honduras and South American teams bargain departments for other loans.

    As for this season being 2 wins away from being the single greatest season in MLS history, I don't believe that's true. If you quantify a successful season by where the Dynamo finished overall, then 2007 was the single greatest season the Dynamo had finishing in 3rd place overall and taking the MLS Cup. In 2006 they finished 5th overall. This year it was 10th place overall.
     
  5. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Not as much postseason success but the Dynamo finished in 2nd place in the Shield table in 2008

    I would say that 2009 would have been the most successful season overall without winning a Cup. The Dynamo finished in a tie for 2nd in the Shield race only 1 point behind 1st and lost in overtime in the conference final. Houston also lost in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals in overtime that year.
     
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  6. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think most longtime Dynamo fans/observers would put the 2008 team as the best squad in team history. That team was loaded with talent but got upset by RBNY.

    While overall MLS quality has improved along with pay scales, I always chuckle when the Orange kool Aid brigade gets all hyped up on a season like 2017 (best ever squad!!! Elis is best ever!!! Senderos is awesome!!!!) as it shows zero perspective on this team’s history
     
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  7. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    Danny fkn Cepero.
     
  8. 7seven7

    7seven7 Member+

    May 5, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    a healthy fear and logical. a successful season by any measure but still plenty to improve on. I hope i wasn't misunderstood as to say "mission accomplished" and I agree that I hope the FO doesn't think that as well.

    If we would have won the last game vs Seattle in the western conference finals and then the next game in the finals, that would have been the two other wins I alluded to and we would have been champs. Going from last place one year to champs the very next would be the single greatest season for an MLS team ever, much less the greatest season we ever had.
     
  9. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #34 juvechelsea, Dec 8, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017
    I agree and disagree. Yes, make sure you get the good ones, but upgrade from last year. To me if you stay same payroll and sign too many holdovers last year is the ceiling and the more likely scenario is diminishing returns. How do you improve results with the same unit. 2010 is a particularly bad version of standing pat.

    If the modus operandi is sign older veteran players, you cannot be afraid of the market each season. Nature of that beast is every year you will have some players who age out, and some where you have to guess where the hill crests, and if your average age is nearly 30 that will be true of wide swaths of the roster.

    If you want out of that loop you have to not option 30 year old CBs and instead bring in a core of players more like the rostered forwards. The forwards are all like 25 or less and so that is a strategy and cap decision and not a "is he too old" decision. If we had a team like that, fine, let it stew, be more picky and long term about filling slots. But the way this is set up now, we have to shed driftwood every year or it turns into a TORSO league team.

    It would also help to get off that high stakes poker table of scouting if we grew more of our own players. If RGV/Academy/draft routinely produce squat, sorry, your options for how to populate a team shrink and start to become more emphatically the stuff you dislike. If they're not HGP they have to come from someplace. If we're going to be cheap we could do better making our own cheap players. (But would even that cost money?)
     
  10. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    My concern about goalsetting would be that they come across to me like they were surprised by what happened and did it on the cheap and I don't know if that necessarily teaches the lessons they need to get about how to achieve even more. Rather than this is a good team spend a little more and really try to compete, they may get the message, cheap works. To that I point out the beloved moneyball A's won in their spendy period but have never done a title in moneyball. I think you can have nice human interest stories but who won the World Series? The team that went out and bought the $27 million pitcher. Our spending was competitive in the golden years of a hard cap. We are now at a disadvantage and a team not patting itself on the back for over-achieving would notice Seattle (and some other well paid teams) ran us off the park twice. I am pleased the season went how it did, but the final series screamed that we needed to up our financial game. Since ownership and GMs should not run things by self-back-pat but by what can I do to improve the experience and the team for next season, they should level up.
     

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