I used to look forward to doing this but since my Dynamo interest has waned some, this isn't as robust as in prior years. Plus, the utter lack of success and FO unintentional comedy made it an enjoyable parody exercise the last few years. But here goes: 1) First of all, I only attended one game in person all year (WC semifinal) so there won't be the usual critique of poor stadium operations and FO cutting corners on service at the game. 2) Two words come to mind to sum up the season, generated in a clumsy manner by our favorite Dynamo sales guy - "limited awesomeness". It was by all reasonable measures a successful season but there is a shallowness to the accomplishment - a weaker Western Conference, a long midseason swoon, only 2 road wins all year, getting housed by Seattle in the semis - an uneven year aided at the end by some playoff opponents who cratered in the last month (SKC) and were quite injured (POR). Dynamo won 6 of the first 10 games at home and 3 of last 4 at home. And in the other 20 games in the middle went 4-7-9. Full credit to the team for taking advantage of the early favorable start (7 of first 10 at home, 2 of which against teams coming off of midweek games) and teams likely underrating the Dynamo and their speed on the counterattack. But there was a very long, very mediocre stretch. In many ways, I think this mirrors the 2011 season - good at home, terrible on the road, get hot at the right time late in the season in a weak conference year. Team finished 10th overall in points in the regular season, about where they probably stacked up. 3) Quick grades on some - Cabrera - B+, some very odd lineup choices but ground out enough results and tried to adapt style to talent. - Jordan - B, got to give him credit for upgrading the talent level although I think his results this year on loans and acquisitions probably are well-above his track record, which begets the question "lucky or good?". Doesn't appear to have hampered us with terrible long-term contracts although until we get to 2018 we wont' know for sure. Defensive signings were about what I thought they were (older, aging, injury-prone, and just average) but he probably didn't have much to work with. - Cubo - B-minus; he is what he is, will never be worth what we paid for him but got goals early to help us accumulate points; I'm sure Dynamo try to dump him this offseason - Quioto - B; whether it was injuries or Honduras duty, he really tailed off IMO until the last few regular season games then didn't do much in the playoffs; what was the deal with being sick for the biggest game of the year? something going on behind the scenes? - Elis - A-; I still fear he is a more skilled Oduro who may not repeat his performance in 2017. we aren't sneaking up on anyone next year, all depends on what his permanent pricetag is - Defense - C-minus; I know the GA stats won't show it but i thought the defense was shaky all year and Deric bailed them out a lot in many games. Offense scored 5th most goals in the league so they scored enough to finish higher in the table - Alex - 1st half A/2nd Half D - what the hell happened to him? - Beasley - Incomplete, should be done as a Dynamo player 4) Dynamo average attendance by year at BBVA Compass Stadium: 2012 - 21,015 2013 - 19,923 2014 - 20,117 2015 - 20,658 2016 - 19,021 2017 - 17,500 Says that winning along doesn't move the needle in Houston. 2017 is the year the attendance suffered from years of FO neglect, cheapness, and lost credibility from years of silly PR pronouncements and spin. And this was even with the conversion to Boiler Room FC and selling the heck out of the team. I'll have to review the figures but in 2017 the team may have had the lowest median crowd because there were a number of games around that 15k mark. And no-shows seemed to be a continuing if not bigger problem. I think in general they damaged the legacy fanbase enough that the dip this time may take a long time to recover from barring some real big signings. 5) 2018 - with the player option period decisions coming up we will know more in a few days but the first offseason decision of magnitude seems to be do they buy Elis or not? No one seems to know the price but from Glenn Davis to other MLS writers it seems like $3 to $5 million may be the figure. I just can't see the ownership group doing that out of pocket unless MLS throws in some Garber bucks or Cubo gets sold somehow. Cabrera's post-game comments on Thursday about the Dynamo not spending much beyond what they did this year (paraphrasing) and only spending what they can afford is worrisome that he already knows what the decisions are and that our somewhat cheap ownership makes us more like the Milwaukee Brewers or Pittsburgh Pirates of MLS - good enough to be somewhat competitive but never spending what the top teams do. Defensively we need an overhaul - the Orange Kool-Aid brigade was effusive in praise of guys like Senderos and Leonardo based on a good game or two while overlooking how deficient they were at time.
Good summary Westie. Cubo is the one of the keys to more freedom with future player acquisitions for this club. That contract has been a millstone and Canetti should have been fired for this as well as the Coyle debacle. Bottom line is - are we a selling club (buy low / sell high) or a buying club (buy high primarily)? Either way we need to spend more money to win a cup: 1) scouting and developing youth or buying expensive proven players. Wilmer only has so many aces up his sleeve in knowledge of potential young players. Nick Kowba and Matt Jordan haven't proven to be astute bringing players in that impact the team in a very positive way (for every Alex there is a Alex Lopez and an Anibaba). The draft has been absolutely horrible (Joe Holland when they could have had Nerwinski in the draft - who would have really helped us in the playoffs in a position of need).
One challenge with deciding whether we are buyers or sellers that we don’t generate enough of her own prospects to be considered sellers - Our homegrown development has been downright pitiful . Last off-season gave me the vibe of a new college football coach that was coming in to turn around a program and had to rely upon transfers and junior college guys to patchwork things - works for a year but you got to do something more to sustain that at the development level.
Little concerned that description of Willis in the playoff wrapup as one who "ably (and unexpectedly) replaced Tyler Deric down the stretch," means they have drunk their own kool-aid on how to resolve the Deric Problem, ie, by simply reverting to Willis. Willis in the playoffs had 1 win and 2 losses, 2.0 GAA, 57.1% saves. Deric by comparison 2 games, 0.0 GAA, 100% saves, 2 wins. I grant that some of that is "Seattle" but Willis is simply not starter quality. We make a mistake, we get punished. The idea behind keeping is to try and make that connection less direct and likely. The answer to the problem is clean house and go keeper shopping. I am sure every keeper on the roster will find a sucker, errr, trading partner.
Re Jordan, I don't think he did that great a job. Inertia at keeper cost us in the playoffs. His defense, including the spring pickups and Senderos he brought in to reinforce them, blew up against Seattle. The midfield was fairly pedestrian all season. Forward was the strong suit, Elis proved excellent and Manotas is productive, but Torres and Quioto faded badly. I don't think the 2017 offseason or summer were bad, like in 2015-16, but is that high praise? We signed a bunch of veterans, and they did ok. Is that sufficient to throw a parade? I liked Elis, Remick, and Machado. Quioto started well but disappeared. Leonardo, Senderos, and Delagarza all broke down. Sanchez and Martinez were meh. I give him some credit for putting together a playoff team, but in a league where more than half make it, that's basic competence. My impression of our haul is we signed a bunch of name brands, Martinez was the only less known quantity. Signing Beasley or Machado is not really a "scouting" decision. Martinez was, and meh. I'm not sold he can scout for sh*t. I'd give him a B- because he did make the playoffs but he did so signing older brand names with little remaining shelf life, or young players on loan rather than purchase, meaning there is no long term continuity assured. Will Elis, the best player on the team, be back? For those who like Cabezas, how about that? And then the defense was basically a purposeful tear-down. I also, on a more subtle concern, feel like the RGV/HGP/draft situation hasn't meaningfully improved. It wasn't zip like the year before but the RGV people were basically filler, Memo briefly had a flurry then disappeared, and this was their old coach. That part of the system is still not working well enough and is pushing Jordan towards the free agent market. Thing being, is Jordan picking the development players too? That being said, I expect him to be safe on the conventional sensibility that he built a semifinal team and must know what he's doing. But the reality is it will have to be immediately rebuilt a la the expansion Carolina Panthers, and was more effective as fan eyewash than a long term concept. And the low percentage GM who's flubbed 2 out of 3 seasons gets a 4th shot and has to do it well because so much of the team has to be churned. So like last season (and arguably the ones before it) it will again come down to his level of competence, and I'm not confident in that.
I'd take my chances with Quioto than pay Elis. Elis gets frustrated and starts playing too chippy...turns into a red card liability. We gotta move Cubo and retire Beasley. I really don't understand the Willis comments. He's a good backup keeper. If he was good enough to be a started why in the F would he accept sitting on the bench. Go Keeper shopping. Of all the places to spend money on this team you want it to be at keeper?
I'd give Cabrera a B- also because I feel like the gimmick approach is both the reason for our success and the setup for being clobbered by Seattle 5-0. That's what 433s do. I feel like as the season progressed he found a set of players who against more average teams could defend hard as a team. That includes Martinez who is generally understood as an attacker, but whom I believe was put out there to chase. However when the opponent was Seattle hustle wasn't enough and we got reamed. In games where we fell behind I felt like Cabrera's roster and subbing chops lackings were exposed. I think if we are serious about returning to our old status we need a better coach. I am concerned in future seasons teams will see the 433 coming. Cabrera will either need significantly improved speed, or playmaking, or the gimmick will wear out. And at that point I don't know if Cabrera has a Plan B. As with Jordan I expect for Cabrera to return, you don't touch a semifinal coach, but the run was so odd a thing I don't think it merits the incumbency rights it will earn.
They would be stupid not to buy Elis, even at 5M. He was the face of the team on all social media after the Black Panther mask. Sell Torres and free up some cash. Manotas and Memo will be good going forward. I think Memo picked up an injury at one point in the fall. Keep Alexander and Cabezas in the mid and I think Martinez is improving as the year went on. Not sure the FO would find a better replacement anyway. Aside from signing Elis and Cabezas from loans they need to fix up the defense as a priority. DeLaGarza was great but coming off an ACL tear and over 30, they need to think about long term (which they never do). If you get rid of Torres it frees up a DP slot which may have to be used on Cabezas transfer fee. Maybe pay down Martinez DP or get Cabezas without it and spend that slot on defense. It will be interesting to see if they lose anyone to LAFC and what is done with Deric.
Joe Willis 2017 Postseason 1-2-0 2.0 GAA 57% SV 2017 Regular season 3-4-1 1.75 GAA 54.8% SV 2016 Regular season 5-12-9 1.5 GAA 69% SV 2015 Regular season 1-1-1 1.67 GAA 50% SV In other words, even on a playoff team, has never had a winning record here as a starter, and never had a season below 1.5 goals/game. And this year he barely saved half the shots at him, behind a better team. Are we going to really pretend he’s a worthy fill-in? Chances are if he plays that we lose, that nearly half the shots go in, and that he allows at least 2 goals. Usually the reality or at least illusion of a backup is that he is good, or might be good, if ever called upon. You’re instead suggesting, well, he won’t play, bench guy, no biggie, who cares if he sucks. And then every year he is actually called upon and sucks between the sticks. So the suggestion we just treat him like a disused No. 2 doesn’t fly. Chances are he ends up in the game in the playoffs. Or starting for weeks at a time, per his game log. So "he’s just our bench guy" doesn’t work. I want a bench guy who might actually be decent. Like Deric was to Hall, or Hall to Onstad. Since when did it become a dumping ground for players with the right salary? This year he was in the net for 0-2 and 0-3 Seattle, 1-3 Colorado, 1-4 Atlanta, 0-2 Philly, 0-2 Toronto, 2-2 Minnesota. Or if you are nostalgic, the 3 goal second half last season where it went from 2-0 to 2-3 Portland. At what point does it get through that he sucks? Deric’s stats behind the same exact team: 2017 Postseason 1-0-1 0.0 GAA 100% SV 2017 Regular season 10-6-10 1.19 GAA 69.7% SV 2016 Regular season 2-2-4 0.60 GAA 83.8% SV 2015 Regular season 10-13-8 1.42 GAA 64% SV While Willis was below .500 on this year’s team, Deric was +.500, and was "even" for the crappy 2016 season. In 2015 he managed just 3 games below .500. For his career, despite starting for a nonplayoff team for 3 seasons, he is "even," as many wins as losses. Deric has earned a point in 51/80 games. A coin flip would understate your chance to get a point. Joe Willis, for his career, is 15-30-15. In other words, 25% W 25% T and 50% L. A coin flip would accurately depict the chance he loses the game, or earns a point. So, were we really THAT bad or does Willis make it THAT much worse? At a certain point saying, well, he’s the backup, is just an excuse for ANYTHING. I want a keeper where it’s less obvious what might happen if he plays. Last, I think there's a good chance Deric is gone, so you have to plan accordingly and get someone who can start in. My concern when I hear them talking up Willis is they ignore the statistics and the outcome of the games he played and get stupid.
While I love a good internet scuffle, I’m not gonna invest energy in participating in Juve’s annual assault on Joe Willis beyond this one post to defend him. Juve’s arguments completely lack perspective (most of Willis’ games started in MLS have been behind a DC defense that was historically bad and the train wreck that was the 2016 Dynamo) and Willis did fine in the Portland series. As a backup or 1B keeper he is fine. If Deric isn’t back it’s a different matter
I think you can have a reasonable debate about Torres, Quioto, Martinez, Alex, Machado, and a few other similar players, who had some good games and production, and some bad ones. I think Willis objectively sucks beyond reasonable defense and that's just the incumbency inertia problem this team has always had, where a player in orange must be better than the man on the market. Such excuses were made for recent year's forwards and then Elis was better than them all. There is always risk on the market but the idea we stick with known but crap quantities for fear of what is happening is not rational but in fact emotional fear. There will be a few free agent keepers with winning lifetime records, 70%+ saves, <1.5 GAA. And we might want to treat a situation of legal problem starter and crap backup like a teardown and just get someone good and reliable and start over, at whatever the market costs.
Completely lack perspective? I just showed that Deric managed to be "even" in a year we were the 19th best team, and how Willis had a losing record this year both regular season and postseason when we MADE THE F*CKING SEMIFINAL. This year cannot be excused away by DC. You can put him behind a SEMIFINAL TEAM and he loses more than he wins and allows 2 GOALS A GAME. That is true even in the regular season WHEN WE WEREN'T BEING DRUBBED BY SEATTLE. Do I have to draw you a map? The evidence clearly supports a conclusion whether his team is winning or losing. You put Deric in that same net and the Saves go up and the Goals down and we are even for the win-loss columns. That would probably be true even if he was behind DC those years. Maybe Willis is just the sort of crap keeper that adorns a crap team's roster because the better teams don't bother. Kind of like Tom Savage and TJ Yates manage to stay employed for the Texans. Did you ever consider that counter-alternative? Wake. Up. I respect discussion of field players although I will have my own thoughts. But support for the return of Willis is crack-smoker level thinking. It's like you have a team that historically was able to call upon Deric or Hall to get an emergency shutout, and you want Tony Caig in reserve instead, on purpose. Indefensible.
You are operating on the assumption they can sell or trade Torres and get anything close to what they paid for him back. That seems like a remote possibility. Dynamo ownership (under AEG/Brener at the time) did spend on Cubo but has never shown the willingness to spend big on multiple players at once like Toronto or 12 other teams. The social media Black Panther thing isn’t worth a fraction of $5 million. I’m sorry, this is where if you let twitter and Instagram influence your decision making you end up with Giles Barnes as a DP and Beasley making a ton of money when Dylan Remick can do the job for a fraction
I thought Torres' contract was 3+2 or 3+1+1, and that this was the third year and an option year. That would be $695k to play with even if it's naïve to believe payroll goes up. It bears noting that even if it's not an option year, Torres' performance cycles us back around to there probably being some trade value again. Also, some combination of these players may also be fungible: Beasley $351k Delagarza $252k Cabezas $267k Deric $185k Elis $423k Boniek $247k Alex $170k Senderos $242k I don't know the options or expirations but at least some of them are on loan or out of contract or options. I know for sure Elis and Cabezas are loan people we have to actively re-secure. I fear we are cycling back around into WC's "we're trapped" theory. You're not trapped if you have an expiration or an option. Even if you don't you can trade. Bruin and Barnes and Sarkodie and Davis were all supposed to be untradeable and yet here we are. [BTW it blows my mind Martinez is the #2 earner at $500k.]
I realize Torres cost 7M and there is no way they will ever get that back. And I also realize social media presence isn't worth 5M. But at some point the FO has to do something. Elis is the first DP that seems worth the bucks in a long time after many flops. I hope we don't continue the tradition of one year deals and hope to replicate the same success on the market the next season. With the coaching style, the team will need a speedy winger to succeed. But based on history, we will try to find a couple loans and cheap players and hope they make things work enough to sneak into the playoffs.
Other players I do not want to see back: Wenger (cost grounds, I like him, but......) Beasley Anibaba Leonardo Alexander Escalante B. Garcia K. Garcia Hunter Senderos Clark Sanchez Holland Lucatero Malki Brown People I would prefer to see us improve upon, but whom I could stand to see retained: Deric Alex Cabezas Torres People to keep: Elis Memo Machado Remick Quioto Manotas Martinez I get that this is unrealistic, that some players will be in-contract (and with most I don't know), and that some players will be retained just for continuity, but I think we are too inertial and this exercise is useful for getting at who really is the foundation of the team going forward. I don't even like everyone on the keep list but some of them were signed last year and can't be in an option and their salaries suggest they are intended to be foundational. Of those types Torres is one of the few where it's like please move on this will hamstring the team to build it around him. If Torres is in an option I'd shift him to the trash barrel list. Stripped of all the kicks he drops down to less than 9 goals run of play, and a black hole for hold up, for a good chunk of a million. This is like Bruin 2016. When your most expensive player is relegated to the bench, and particularly in a playoff year, that is the easiest ejector seat button in the world to push.
OK understood. I do think from an ownership credibility in the market buying Elis would be a good play. Is it the smartest play for $3-$5 million? Don’t know. You probably won’t get revenue growth to cover that but if you can get Elis at a price you know you could flip him at in a year or two it isn’t a bad risk. But the challenge with this FO/Ownership group when the question comes about of it is worth $4 million to buy Elis, the answer may be “give me $500k to expand the boiler room and hire more sales guys and we can get a better return on investment”.
Still boggles my mind how many people overrate Elis. I only buy outright if it’s affordable or ask Rayados for another year’s loan. I still think you do anything to keep the 4-headed monster (Cubo, Manotas, Quioto, Elis) in place another year. If 1 or 2 are replaced so be it. None should be considered “franchise players”. We made that mistake with Barnes let’s not make it with Elis.
Is the guy who posts as “HOU-1836” on reddit on BigSoccer? Maybe he’s being sarcastic but anyone who thinks it was a good idea to put Quioto in mothballs or rest him to avoid him getting hurt in advance of a deal when you are in the Western Conference Finals is insane http://www.reddit.com/r/dynamo/comments/7hjiw4/is_quioto_saying_goodbye/
It’s hard to evaluate without knowing the price for Elis. I hope it leaks out so we can avoid FO spin
The problem that I see is that we will be perfectly satisfied with a player that the Rayados wouldn't even put on the first team. That says a lot about MLS.
He may be overrated a bit, but he's a better player and fit than Barnes ever was. He's much younger and without an injury history up to this point. Also, I don't see him loaf around the field like I have with Barnes.
YUP! To take it a step forward: That we would be satisfied with a player Rayados wouldn’t even put on the first team. That says a lot about the Dynamo and Dynamo fans.