Wealth & Population Adjusted Rankings

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by Abram Jones, Jun 6, 2017.

  1. Abram Jones

    Abram Jones Member

    Jun 18, 2016
    Wisconsin (WI)
    Ranks from 1872-2017 available (including All Time): http://internationalsports.nfshost.com/index.php/home/load_sports/5/2017

    This ranking system is, by far, the best rating system in representing the true skill of a nation in any particular sport (to date). However, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Mathematicians, ranking/rating experts, and international sports buffs are encouraged to either assist me or take what I have started and improve upon it. This project is not meant as a replacement for my Regions Proposal (having regional teams of similar size regarding population and wealth), however, it could be used in conjunction with such a scenario for maximum accuracy in rankings and ratings.

    The workings of this system are quite simple. The first step is completing a simple calculation involving each nation's population amount and economic strength (this is known as e-determinant). After this, each match score is adjusted depending on the difference in the e-determinant of both nations involved in the game. Lastly, the Elo rating system is used to determine ranking order. The Elo Rating system may be replaced by another in the future.

    FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES
    • lack of games played: this is a problem that any rating system must face when dealing with international sports. in addition to this, results are sometimes hard or impossible to find.
    • poor methods of scoring in certain sports: some sports have fundamental mathematical problems in the way they are tallied. the result of this is often a scoreline that does not represent the true performance on the field. this can also compound the problem when adjusting the score for wealth and population. examples of these sports are soccer football and ice hockey (which have severely limited scoring opportunities making it too easy for the defense), and baseball (there is too much randomization in scoring opportunities as a result of it being too easy for the pitcher).
    • vast difference in nation sizes: finding a one size fits all system is very difficult. extremely small countries are always going to be at an exponential disadvantage because of minimum amounts of wealth and population required to build a satisfactory sports infrastructure. when measuring the performance of very large nations 2 things must be considered. 1. the rating must not represent the average of the nation, this would make it much more difficult for large nations than smaller nations in maintaining high scores. 2. the rating must not represent the region that performs the best within the nation, this would make it much more easy for large nations than smaller nations in maintaining high score.
    • gathering accurate economic and population data: especially in the case of historic data, in some cases only estimates from the world's top scholars can be used.

    OTHER SPORTS COMPLETED
    • American Football (appears to be quite accurate, but it looks to me as Austria is overrated due to lack of games played. they should be in between Japan and Germany. This problem will resolve itself when more games are played).
    • Australian Rules Football (this is looking pretty good, but Nauru should be above Samoa in All Time, this is the result of a technicality (Samoa stopped playing internationally regularly). however, this problem should be resolved after the intercontinental cup this year.
    • Circle Kabaddi
    • International Rules Football
    • Standard Kabaddi
    *i'm working on data entry for several other sports. you may see statistics for them in nation profiles, keep in mind they will not be as accurate as possible until complete). i would like to complete basketball, rugby union, and water polo next.
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rankings need to skip numbers after ties. For example, after a tie for 8th the next team should be 10th, not 9th. Your rankings go up to 132, but they include 145 countries. That means there are 66 FIFA members you excluded. Why?
     
  3. Abram Jones

    Abram Jones Member

    Jun 18, 2016
    Wisconsin (WI)
    at the moment nations are only included if they play in the selected year. if you view previous years or all time rankings you will notice all nations (including non FIFA members) are included.
     

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