Yea I think we have to say it wasn’t a bad series defeating Atlanta, and tying the two New York squads, although we definitely had three points for the taking today.
Along with Montreal's win over Philly and Montreal beating these same RedBulls recently... it's made things a lot tougher despite our great 3 points over Atlanta and our solid 1 in NY. We could easily miss the playoffs by a point or two. We left two on the table today.
Still in good shape it they beat Montreal. Philly might be in trouble with their schedule, they can be caught but only if United tcb. if they can't beat Montreal at home with all that's at stake, they aren't good enough for the playoffs, that's clear.
I predict it comes down to the last game of the season in Chicago. It'll be win and they're in, draw and they're out.
We used to say runway behind you, fuel still in the truck, and altitude above you are essentially useless. The points they squandered early this season are what will break them. There's no 100 kt tailwind in the run to a playoff spot, I believe you treat every opportunity as essential, no throwaways.
Here is the thing that scares me about this season and the Levien ownership group... you can be sure that its not much of leap for them to sit back and say hey, we made a good run at the playoffs or we made the playoffs in the 6 spot and perhaps even won a play in game, but no way we're going any further. They can look at either of those scenarios and make a solid justification for not spending much on the roster. Its not like they were splashing cash left and right at Swansea.
This is 100% true, but I'm not sure how much eeking into the playoffs or missing by a point would change their calculus. Actually, if you look at the team since Rooney came, it's a definite playoff-level team, even with the problems in the back. The question is how much of that is the team being pretty good vs. how much is being at home a lot. I'd say it's a combination of both. I think this roster, with a better version of Mattocks and an upgrade at CB or one of the outside back spots would have a good chance of making the playoffs next year. That doesn't change the fact that it'd be great if they upgraded even more than what I mentioned above. They would need to to be a legit contender to do something in the playoffs.
It doesn't change it all, nor does it change the fact that we need 2-3 defenders another striker, Mattocks isn't staying and who is decent that wants to be plan B? This ownership group's proclivity for thriftiness is going to be some test. I've obviously viewed Rooney as a marketing ploy, but he's panning out magnificently. The window is the next 2 seasons for us to make a Cup run. I am still not sure that this team gets by Atlanta, NYC or NJ either this year or next with the current roster. Not to mention you've got Cincy coming into the league with a likely deep set of pockets and you have to wonder how Toronto is going to retool, since they've got money to burn and Orlando too, even if they did cut their payroll by ~$5M this year. And 2020 you have Beckham United and presumably another spending owner in the east.
With this roster, and our normal run of injury misfortune, we've shown we're worth 5 points a year - probably enough to get into the playoffs and maybe win a game. That's not good enough based on salary or, I hope, the club's expectations. This year, I have a feeling we're not going to cross the playoff line. Philly tripped us, and the bear is breathing down our necks. On recent 5-game form, just considering home and away xP, Philly's averaging 0.6 PPG more than they should and Montreal is averaging + 0.8. Meanwhile, we're getting exactly as many points as we're supposed to. Trends continuing, we end the season: Philly -53 points NYCFC - 52 points Montreal - 51 points -------------------------- DC - 45 points NE - 42 points That's a damning gap, and it's going to take an extraordinary circumstance to turn it around. In terms of xP, the Montreal game isn't a 6-pointer. It's a 2.2 pointer if we win, a -0.8 pointer if we tie, and a -3.8 pointer if we lose. If we were playing Montreal in Montreal, the tables would be turned and we'd really have a chance to gain ground on them. As it is, the opportunity is Montreal's, and if they take it, they'll have driven a stake through the heart of our season, for sure.
All of this discussion shows why coaches always use the cliche, you play them one at a time. That's all you can control, what other teams do is beyond your control. This is an interesting statistical exercise, but the game is played by humans who get hurt, ******** up and do sublime things. For example, what were the odds in the Orlando game that DCU would get the winning goal deep in stoppage time after Rooney ran down an open field empty net breakaway? Probably negative nil. But it happened.
I tried to help my 12 year old with his algebra homework last night, and I embarrassed myself on several occasions. Come to think of it, you should probably disregard anything I post.
But just aspiring to be a playoff level team in the East means you are 6th or maybe better of 11 teams. More teams make it than don't. That's the soccer equivalent of aspiring to be a heavy bag in a boxing gym instead of the champ. They need as you suggest to set the sights much higher.
The team has promise, but realistically it still comes down to talent equivalent + coaching. Who on DCU 2018 would start on one of the top 3 teams in the league? Acosta? Canouse? Name recognition aside, would Rooney? Arriola? And anyone think our coaching is better than the bear? To be a top 3 team you need to be better together and likely in a number of pieces. We're still not there (though sooooo much better than recently). Lots of room for upgrades. For you geeks out there, how many times this season have we been ahead and given up the tying/winning goal after the 75th? How many times have we tied/won after the 75th? That tells you a lot about how much building we need...
Hamid. Maybe Asad. Acosta. Depends on the specific team/players of course, but all of them could definitely start for a top 3 team. It's our D that's the problem even if they've been marginally better the past few months.
Outside of the backline, DCU has good talent in the starting positions. I believe Acosta, Rooney, Asad, Stieber, Arriola, Canouse, and Moreno are all starting calibur. To Olsen's credit, he has done a good job bleeding Moreno, Asad, and Rooney into the team. I think Stieber is a bit of a difficult fit right now because he is a winger being played as an inside forward. The team has struggled with two inside forwards because we cannot get enough width in the attack because both Asad and Stieber drift to the middle and crowd space and make us easier to defend. That may still work out over the long run because we've seen Fisher and Mora begin to step up their offensive games too. If they consistently push into the attack without giving up too many counters we can get the width we need to unlock MLS defenses. That said I still believe Birnbaum is average MLS defender and Opare/Brilliant are significantly below average. Our entire backline is below average. When your centerbacks are slow and not too good with the ball at your feet it's hard to hold a high line and allow your fullbacks to provide the afore mentioned width without giving up goals. One problem I still have with the overall construction of the team is the height in the squad. Outside of our centerbacks we don't have anyone who can consistently win balls in the air. I'd prefer to have some more height mixed in so we can win more of those 2nd balls in the midfield. Canouse is decent but the rest of the squad is just too short or not aggressive enough to consistently win those battles.
I agree with most of this except that Brillant is fine with the ball at his feet, he's just slow. I also think Stieber is the odd man out here for next year as his salary is close to $1M and he isn't "as good" as either Asad or Arriola for the role he is asked to play. I think Segura is good backup for those two and what is needed most is an overhaul of the backline as you say. I think Birnbaum and Mora are fine, Fisher is good depth, but Birnbaum needs a better partner than either Opare or Brillant.
My take on Eastern Bear's analysis of our lineup: To get the most out of Stieber he must play wide enough to make use of his best weapon - the long, pinpoint left-footed cross. At some point I wish we could go three in the back, but if so I would want Arriola on the right side playing up and down the touchline as he did so well a week or so ago. In this lineup, Mora, perhaps our best slide tackler, might have to sit in favor of, say Stieber or Asad. But who will be the three in the back? Birnbaum probably; Opare possibly; and then ? Durkin? Fisher is active, but I blame his poor technique for BWP's first goal (right through his legs).
Agree that Brilliant has good touch but he routinely gets crossed up with teammates and puts central midfielders under too much pressure. It may not be his fault but it happens to him a lot more than Birmbaum. DCU also need a speedy centerback to cover when we inevitably get caught up field.
Saturday is a must win. I just watched Galaxy dismantle Seattle, now they are within 3 points range, even if Seattle has one game in hand. Still very difficult for LAG, but they treated the direct clash against the team they are making their run up to the way it was supposed to treated. We got to do the same.
We control our own destiny as of right now. Montreal is at 40 points after 30 games We are at 35 points after 28 games New England is at 35 points after 29 games Our remaining schedule: 9/29 vs Montreal 10/7 vs Chicago 10/13 vs FC Dallas 10/17 vs Toronto 10/21 vs NYCFC 10/28 @ Chicago Montreal remaining schedule: 9/29 @ DCU 10/6 vs Columbus 10/21 vs Toronto 10/28 @ New England New England remaining schedule: 9/29 @ Toronto 10/6 @ Atlanta 10/13 vs Orlando 10/18 @ RSL 10/28 vs Montreal I say forget about New England for the moment. They are behind us (because of our game in hand) and have I think the toughest schedule down the stretch. Focus on a battle with Montreal for the last spot. Week 1 It's a home game vs Montreal. An absolute must win. Week 2: We're home vs Chicago. They're home vs Columbus. Week 3: These are our two games in hand. At home vs FC Dallas and home vs Toronto (who may have been officially knocked out at this point?!?). These are two games we need to win to jump ahead of Montreal. Week 4: We're home vs NYCFC. They're home vs Toronto. Week 5: We're away to Chicago. They're away to New England. This is doable. And we control our destiny. Get it done!