After this week's results, DC United and Montreal will be tied for the last two playoff spots in the East. (At least in the currently happy world of my projections...) New England's unexpected loss at home to Philadelphia this week knocks them out of the playoffs, while Montreal's unexpected draw at Salt Like allows them to climb up into the playoffs. DC United's win, despite creating one of my all time favorite memories and causing me to consider buying my first new jersey since 1997, was in this context simply a necessary victory against a weak team. Our game at home against NYFC remains our pivotal game in my opinion. They have only lost 5 out of 12 road games--and it is a must-win game for us. (Reminder: numbers in parenthesis show the points per home game for home teams and points per away games for away teams. Games are listed in projected difficulty order, easiest to hardest.) DC United (Home PPG 2.17, Road PPG 0.57) Projected Total Points 44 (5th place - tie) (Current Points 21, Projected Future Points 23) Home Win: Minnesota (0.36), Montreal (0.62), Chicago (0.75), Toronto (0.75), New England (0.80), Philadelphia (1.08), NYFC (1.25) Home Draw: Portland (1.30) Home Loss: Dallas (1.55), NYRB (1.73) {downgraded from Home Draw}, Atlanta (2.09) Road Draw: Chicago (1.08) {upgraded from Road Loss} Road Loss: NYRB (2.33), NYFC (2.67) Montreal (Home PPG 1.83, Road PPG 0.62) Projected Total Points 44 (5th place - tie) (Current Points 30, Projected Future Points 14) Home Win: Chicago (0.75), Toronto (0.75), Columbus (1.09), NYFC (1.25) Home Draw: NYRB (1.73) Road Draw: Toronto (1.27) Road Loss: Philadelphia (1.55), New England (1.62), DC United (2.17) New England (Home PPG 1.62, Road PPG 0.80) Projected Total Points 43 (7th place) (Current Points 29, Projected Future Points 14) Home Win: Orlando (0.50), Montreal (0.62), Chicago (0.75) Home Draw: Portland (1.30) Road Win: Toronto (1.27) Road Draw: Philadelphia (1.55) Road Loss: LAFC (1.82), Atlanta, (1.92), DC United (2.17), Salt Lake (2.31), NYFC (2.67) Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.55, Road PPG 1.08) Projected Total Points 42 (8th place) (Current Points 30, Projected Future Points 12) Home Win: Minnesota (0.36), Montreal (0.62) Home Draw: New England (0.80), NYFC (1.25), KC (1.50) Home Loss: NYRB (1.73) Road Draw: Seattle (1.55), Orlando (1.42) Road Loss: DC United (2.17), Columbus (2.08), NYFC (2.67)
I'm thinking that the New England at Philadelphia game should be switched from a draw to a home win for Philadelphia. That'd give Philadelphia 44 points as well, making it a 3-way tie for the two playoff spots. Beats me as to who'd win that tie-breaker. This helps explain why Ben pulled the goalie with a minute to go against Orlando: it's likely to be really close at the end, and we can't afford to settle for just "a result" in home games against weak teams.
There are three 'schedule-adjusted performance' or 'playoff odds' sites I check: Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): http://sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm 538 (ABC): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/ SportsClubStats: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html Two of them haven't been updated yet for this game. 538's odds for the playoffs went from 27% on August 4 to 37% now.
SportsClubStats should have them just under 35% on the weighted method when they finally update. Something is weird about 538's current projections, as by percentages they would be in (37% is the 6th highest playoff percentage in the East), but on points, they would miss by 1.
Maybe the universe of possible outcomes isn't evenly distributed, meaning that there are a whole bunch of "bust" seasons that drags down the average number of simulated points but doesn't really change the percentage of seasons resulting in a playoff appearance.
Tonight's very satisfying win gained two more points than the projected draw, putting DC on track for 46 projected points and the 5th place spot. Here's another way to look at things. Take each team's current home and road average points per game and then multiply those by their remaining home and road games respectively. DC has 24 points through tonight, is averaging 2.29 points per home game with 10 home games remaining for 22.9 expected home points, and is averaging .57 points per road game with 3 remaining for 1.7 points. The final total would be 48.6, putting them solidly in 5th place and on track for a first round playoff game at Columbus. (After these last two games, I say there's nothing wrong with having a little fun with data-driven wild speculation like this.) 6th place with 44.7 points, Philadelphia. 7th place with 41.6 points, Montreal. 8th place with 41.1 points, New England.
538 has updated DC United's playoff chances to 47%. They have United's projected points at 43. Sportsclubstats does not appear to have updated yet, but they had United at 39.1% before Wednesday's win. That should be up to 49.6% according to their projected results page.
I'm sure they'll have their downturns in this run. The state of the defense all but assures there's going to be some really annoying losses in the future. But it'll be interesting to see how many we can pass.
SCS now has it at 52%. I think there are third-party results that interact to affect the odds in minor ways. So basically we're a coin flip at this point.
The eastern conference is weaker than it has been pretty much ever. Yes we face two or three strong teams at the top but everything after 3rd/4th place is straight garbage. Frankly not making the playoffs given the weakness of the conference means more than last year or the year before that. We are likely to see historically low PPGs around the red line given what we’ve seen so far.
New England isn't a big bear. Its a little one, but they're right above us in the standings, and they're one bear we have to beat at home. They have a poor away record, but we need to keep the intensity for this game.
Opare's return to replace Brilliant has really improved the state of the defense. Goff wrote in in today's Post that "With Opare and Steve Birnbaum reunited in central defense, United has conceded five goals during a four-game unbeaten streak..." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-defense-has-been-thriving-since-his-return/ Goff also quoted Ben as admitting Brilliant had "started to wane in power". “As the season wore on, I could’ve done a better job of managing Fred’s minutes,” he said. “Toward the middle of summer, we used him too much for his age. He started to wane in power. That’s on me.” Focusing specifically on the strength of the teams fighting for the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference... In 4 out the last 6 years, 6th place took no less than 49 points. It's looking like 44 points might very well do the trick this year. Here are East 5th / 6th / 7th place points going back 6 years: 2018: 46 / 44 / 44 points (projected) 2017: 54 / 50 / 45 points (increase to 11 teams) 2016: 45 / 42 / 42 points 2015: 50 / 49 / 44 points (switch to 1-6 making playoffs) 2014: 49 / 42 / 41 points 2013: 49 / 49 / 46 points 2012: 53 / 52 / 42 points
Need the offense and defense to start figuring things out down this homestretch of the season. As much as I would love to make the playoffs, I hope the team and gel and improve to the point of making an actual run at MLS Cup in the playoffs
DC United beat New England as projected. Montreal beat Chicago as projected. Philadelphia beat NYFC while a draw was projected so +2 projected points. We now have the second best home points per game average in the league at 2.38 not far behind NYFC's league leading 2.67 home ppg avg. For each game, I've the difference between the relevant home and away avg points per game for each team (relative to the team in bold we are focused on). Also, I adjusted the projections of all remain league games to reflect the fact that home teams on average win 53% of their games (cutoff at +0.92 ppg difference for remaining games), draw 22% (cutoff at +0.37 difference), and lose 25%. Bottom line: I'm still projecting that 44-45 points will get a playoff spot this year--and DC United is projected to get one of them. DC United (Home PPG 2.38, Road PPG 0.57) Projected Total Points 45 (5th place) (Current Points 24, Projected Future Points 21) Home Win: Minnesota (0.33/+2.04), Montreal (0.62/+1.76), Chicago (0.69/+1.68), Toronto (0.77/+1.61), Philadelphia (1.08/+1.29), NYFC (1.15/+1.22) Home Draw: Dallas (1.55/+0.83), NYRB (1.67/+0.71) Home Loss: Atlanta (2.09/+0.28) Road Draw: Chicago (1.08/-0.51) Road Loss: NYRB (2.33/-1.76), NYFC (2.67/-2.10) Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.67, Road PPG 1.08) Projected Total Points 44 (6th place) (Current Points 33, Projected Future Points 11) Home Win: Minnesota (0.33/+1.33), Montreal (0.62/+1.05), New England (0.73/+0.94) Home Loss: KC (1.50/+0.17), NYRB (1.67/+0.00) Road Win: Orlando (1.42/-0.33) Road Draw: Seattle (1.67/-0.58), Road Loss: Columbus (2.08/-0.99), DC United (2.38/-1.29), NYFC (2.67/-1.58) Montreal (Home PPG 1.92, Road PPG 0.62) Projected Total Points 41 (7th place) (Current Points 33, Projected Future Points 8) Home Win: Toronto (0.77/+1.15), Columbus (1.00/+0.92) Home Draw: NYFC (1.15/+0.77) Home Loss: NYRB (1.67/+0.26) Road Draw: Toronto (1.27/-0.66) Road Loss: New England (1.62/-1.00), Philadelphia (1.67/-1.05), , DC United (2.38/-1.76) New England (Home PPG 1.62, Road PPG 0.73) Projected Total Points 40 (8th place) (Current Points 29, Projected Future Points 11) Home Win: Orlando (0.50/+1.12), Montreal (0.62/+1.00), Chicago (0.69/+0.92) Home Draw: Portland (1.08/+0.53) Road Draw: Toronto (1.27/-0.55) Road Loss: Philadelphia (1.67/-0.94), LAFC (2.00/-1.27), Atlanta, (2.00/-1.27), Salt Lake (2.31/-1.58), NYFC (2.67/-1.94) --------- And the alternate projection (simple home/road average ppg multiplied by remaining home/road games and adding current points) gives the same positions. I think this approach is too simple, but it's still interesting. 5th - 50 pts - DC United 6th - 48 pts - Philadelphia 7th - 43 pts - Montreal 8th - 40 pts - New England
Sportsclubstats has DC United's chances at 60.4% in their weighted method, with a simulated points total in the 44/45 range; 538 has it at 55% with a simulated points total of 45.
And as a reminder, the main difference between the two is that SCS doesn't try to figure out how good the teams are, they just randomize the remaining games, given home/away and how many are left. 538 does (that's the 'SPI' number), but they also go back a calendar year, meaning there are some crappy results at the end of last season that still count. (This is also why TFC is still given a 20% chance by 538, while SCS gives them only 6%.)
SCS does take opponent record into account in their weighted method. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you were saying here.
Unfortunately, there's a lot to step into in the woods. Of our 9 (NINE) remaining Home games, four of them are against the four top clubs in the league: Atlanta, NYRB, NYCFC and Dallas. Couple that with our two Away games in late Aug and early Sept against both of the NY teams. And that grueling 3 week stretch with 6 games from Aug 26th to Sept 16th, which includes NYRB twice, NYCFC away and Atlanta at home. I don't know how the the other teams' schedules work out, but ours is pretty brutal for the next month. We've played well, but against equal or lesser competition. We'll need to improve and steal some points away from home against the both NY teams, and pull an upset against Atlanta. And still keep beating the riffraff. We have a good odds on chance of making the playoffs, but we'll need to more than just keep up with stats.
Looking at things in chronological order... It is likely we will lose the next 3 out of 4--including 2 games away against the New York teams and 1 game at home against Atlanta--but these 3 really difficult games are our only remaining projected losses. We don't have to steal any points in these 3 particular games to make the playoffs, though stealing 3 points from them would bump us up from a projected 6th to 5th. Montreal and New England have challenging schedules through the remainder of the season. We don't have to outrun the bear, we only have to outrun them. As Douglas Adams said, "Don't Panic!" Note: I just realized that in my last post I had missed Philadelphia's projected road win at Orlando in calculating their remaining points. This just flips the 5th/6th spots between Philadelphia and DC United, leaving both still in the playoffs. (Reminder: The +/- is the difference between the home team's avg home PPG and the away team's avg away PPG.) Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.67, Road PPG 1.08) Projected Total Points 47 (5th place) (Current Points 33, Projected Future Points 13) Aug 25: Win - New England (0.73/+0.94) Aug 29: Loss - at-DC United (2.38/-1.29) Sep 1: Win - at-Orlando (1.42/-0.33) Sep 15: Win - Montreal (0.62/+1.05) Sep 19: Draw - at-Seattle(1.67/-0.58) Sep 23: Loss - KC (1.50/+0.17) Sep 29: Loss - at-Columbus (2.08/-0.99) Oct 6: Win - Minnesota (0.33/+1.33) Oct 21: Loss - NYRB (1.67/+0.00) Oct 28: Loss - at-NYFC (2.67/-1.58) DC United (Home PPG 2.38, Road PPG 0.57) Projected Total Points 45 (6th place) (Current Points 24, Projected Future Points 21) Aug 26: Loss - at-NYRB (2.33/-1.76) Aug 29: Win - Philadelphia (1.08/+1.29) Sep 2: Loss - Atlanta (2.09/+0.28) Sep 8: Loss - at-NYFC (2.67/-2.10) Sep 12: Win - Minnesota (0.33/+2.04) Sep 16: Draw - NYRB (1.67/+0.71) Sep 29: Win - Montreal (0.62/+1.76) Oct 7: Win - Chicago (0.69/+1.68) Oct 13: Draw - Dallas (1.55/+0.83) Oct 17: Win - Toronto (0.77/+1.61) Oct 21: Win - NYFC (1.15/+1.22) Oct 28: Draw - at-Chicago (1.08/-0.51) Montreal (Home PPG 1.92, Road PPG 0.62) Projected Total Points 41 (7th place) (Current Points 33, Projected Future Points 8) Aug 25: Draw - at-Toronto (1.27/-0.66) Sep 1: Loss - NYRB (1.67/+0.26) Sep 15: Loss - @Philadelphia (1.67/-1.05) Sep 22: Draw - NYFC (1.15/+0.77) Sep 29: Loss - at-DC United (2.38/-1.76) Oct 6: Win - Columbus (1.00/+0.92) Oct 21: Win - Toronto (0.77/+1.15) Oct 28: Loss - at-New England (1.62/-1.00) New England (Home PPG 1.62, Road PPG 0.73) Projected Total Points 40 (8th place) (Current Points 29, Projected Future Points 11) Aug 25: Loss - at-Philadelphia (1.67/-0.94) Sep 1: Draw - Portland (1.08/+0.53) Sep 5: Loss - at-NYFC (2.67/-1.94) Sep 15: Loss - at-LAFC (2.00/-1.27) Sep 22: Win - Chicago (0.69/+0.92) Sep 29: Draw - at-Toronto (1.27/-0.55) Oct 6: Loss - at-Atlanta, (2.00/-1.27) Oct 13: Win - Orlando (0.50/+1.12) Oct 18: Loss - at-Salt Lake (2.31/-1.58) Oct 28: Win - Montreal (0.62/+1.00)