WCQs For 2010: CONCACAF Hexagonal Predictions [R]

desertfox2 predicted CRC 4:0 T&T and had the only exact score prediction for any game yesterday. Here are the Matchday 9 score prediction results out of a possible 9 points:

1. desertfox2: 7
2.-4. MoRado, PARS, and ohiginiano: 4
5.-22. EvanJ, Pepsinono, DM8512, Hou-Mon, vanbasten9, CyberAce100, El Cabrito, Naui_Ocelotl, tomwilhelm, DLee, Trin, PanchoM, Flipstar508, Moises786, ja2ny, Warlord, drunkgy10, and suazo09: 3
23.-36. IASocFan, Ronaldinho11, zacateca, benitoelwerito, silverlion, ezln, chris2787, jared9999, schrutebuck, jcvf90, Perndog2006, ...In my defense, futgod, and 13370: 2
37.-38. chec and efijbe: 1
39. Cuzcaking: 0

The average per person was 2.64. Out of 39 predictions for each game, there were 32 correct result predictions for CRC:T&T, 37 correct result predictions for MEX:ES, and 2 correct result predictions for HON:USA. 60.7% of the predictions had the correct result. The previous low for correct result predictions for a game was 5 for ES:MEX.

I don't know if I will post cumulative score prediction results after Matchday 9 or wait until after Matchday 10.

 

I will gradually post more and more prediction results. There will be Matchday 10, the cumulative Hexagonal score predictions, the Hexagonal standings predictions for the 21 people who made them, and the overall results including all rounds. For now I will say that nobody predicted the six teams to finish in the Hexagonal order that they did. The 21 people predicted 14 permutations, with only one permutation being chose by more than 2 perople. That permutation was close but had Trinidad and Tobago finishing ahead of El Salvador which didn't happen. Here are the amount of people who got each standings prediction correct:

USA first: 9 (tied for the most common team predicted to finish first)
MEX second: 7 (tied for the most common team predicted to finish second)
HON third: 6 (the most common team predicted to finish third)
CRC fourth: 10 (the most common team predicted to finish fourth)
ES fifth: 1 (17 people predicted them to finish last)
T&T sixth: 4 (ES and T&T were the only teams anybody predicted to finish last)

There are 15 combinations of selecting a pair of teams given that there are 6 teams. The only two combinations that a majority of people were wrong about were predicting MEX to finish ahead of USA and T&T to finish ahead of ES. The average person who made standings predictions had 1.76 teams in the correct position. 4 people had 4 teams in the correct position, 8 people had 2 teams correct, 5 people had 1 team correct, and 4 people had all six teams wrong. I had MEX and CRC in the correct position.

For Matchday 10, 40 people made predictions and got a total of 65 points was is exactly 1.625 per person. There were 11 exact score predictions, with ES:HON have 7 of them and the other two games having 2 each. vanbasten9 won Matchday 10 with 5 points. PanchoM, Hou-Mon, Moises786, and ezln tied for second with 4 points each.

 

Here are the Matchday 10 score prediction results out of a possible 9 points:

1. vanbasten9: 5
2.-5. PanchoM, Hou-Mon, Moises786, and ezln: 4
6.-13. desertfox2, IASocFan, Ohiginiano, jcvf90, EvanJ, Naui_Ocelotl, jared9999, and El Cabrito: 3
14.-21. DM8512, zenryan, futgod, CyberAce100, ...In my defense, schrutebuck, MoRado, and chec: 2
22.-25. DLee, ja2ny, Warlord, and 13370: 1
26.-40. Pernodg2006, efijbe, tomwilhelm, drunkguy10, Flipstar508, chris2787, Pepsinonon, benitoelwerito, Trin, zacateca, PARS, silverlion, Ronaldinho11, suazo09, and Cuzcaking: 0

Here's a list of the people with exact score predictions for Matchday 10:

USA 2:2 CRC was predicted by Naui_Ocelotl and vanbasten9
T&T 2:2 MEX was predicted by ezln and El Cabrito
ES 0:1 HON was predicted by PanchoM, desertfox2, IASocFan, Ohiginiano, jcvf90, EvanJ, and jared9999

75 people made score predictions for at least some of the Hexagonal. The most points anybody could get was 90. A * denotes the 21 people who made complete standings predictions before the Hexagonal started. Four of those people; tomwilhelm, Trin, schrutebuck, and Perndog2006; did not finish in the Top 21. The four people who finished in the Top 21 not denoted with a * are CyberAce100, ezln (who tried to make complete predictions before the Hexagonal started but left out one game), Naui_Ocelotl, and silverlion. Here are the cumulative score prediction results:

1. EvanJ*: 46 (I got the same amount, 1 more point, or 2 more points than IASocFan on all 10 matchdays)
2. IASocFan*: 38
3.-5. MoRado*, Hou-Mon*, and vanbasten9*: 35
6. Pepsinono*: 34
7. DM8512*: 33
8.-11. Ronaldinho11*, CyberAce100, El Cabrito*, and ezln: 32
12.-14. zacateca*, desertfox2*, and Naui_Ocelotl: 31
15.-17. benitoelwerito*, chec*, and jared9999*: 30
18. PanchoM*: 29
19.-21. silverlion, chris2787,* and DLee*: 28
22.-23. tomwilhelm* and Trin*: 27
24. schrutebuck*: 26
25.-26. Flipstar508 and jcvf90: 24
27. Moises786: 22
28.-29. Perndog2006* and zenryan: 19
30. ja2ny: 17
31. Warlord: 16
32.-35. PARS, …In my defense, futgod, and Ohiginiano: 14
36. \^the king^/: 13
37. Titan 7: 12
38.-39. YanksCatrachos23 and efijbe: 11
40. Latin Pride: 10
41.-46. Azuran, ElChavo6575, gethomas3, cookiefritas, lguti9, and drunkguy10: 8
47.-48. Prodigy1418 and mexicano_for_lyfe: 7
49.-51. kehl, Baller53, and City Dave: 6
52.-55. tico_sapri, larrygiterdone, catrachogol, and Cuzcaking: 5
56. Alva: 4
57.-62. letsplayfootball, tenoch12, Crazy_Yank, jq pepe, suazo09, and 13370: 3
63.-69. L.A.Firpo84, VAMOS MEXICO, kingallan2k7, safcfan, Costaestabienrica, GUANACO1, and El_tri321mex: 2
70. Puro_Sinaloa: 1
71.-75. Chiquitibum, Rambo10, KoRnEdMX, 5-stars, and uuaww: 0

The mean score per person was 15.35. 31 people scored above the mean and 44 people scored below the mean.

The next thing I will do is evaluate the Hexagonal standings predictions for the 21 people who made them.

 

I previously had entered jared9999's standings predictions into my spreadsheet wrong, so some of what I posted two posts ago is wrong.

The standings predictions for the 21 people who made them were evaluated in two ways. Here are results where your score for each team was 7 - however many points off you were for that team with negative scores (if you were more than 7 points off) increased to 0 (the maximum score is 42):

1. Hou-Mon: 33
2. DM8512: 32
3. tomwilhelm: 31
4.-5. desertfox2 and El Cabrito: 30
6. MoRado: 29
7.-8. IASocFan and DLee: 26
9.-10. EvanJ and Trin: 23
11. Ronaldinho11: 22
12.-14. chec, vanbasten9, and schrutebuck: 21
15. chris2787: 20
16.-17. zacateca and jared9999: 19
18.-19. Pepsinono and PanchoM: 15
20. benitoelwerito: 13
21. Perndog2006: 12

The mean score was 22.90. 10 people scored above the mean and 11 people scored below the mean.

In this category I evaluated how you ranked the teams. If you put a team in the correct group (top three, fourth, or bottom two), you got points according to the following:

7 points for a team's exact ranking
4 points if your first place team finished second, your second place team finished first, your second place team finished third, your third place team finished second, your fifth place team finished sixth, or your sixth place team finished fifth
2 points if your first place team finished third or your third place team finished first

1.-4. Hou-Mon, DM8512, desertfox2, and schrutebuck: 36
5.-6. DLee and Ronaldinho11: 30
7. EvanJ: 26
8.-9. tomwilhelm and jared9999: 25
10.-11. MoRado and IASocFan: 22
12. El Cabrito: 20
13. Pepsinono: 18
14. Trin: 17
15.-16. zacateca and benitoelwerito: 15
17.-18. vanbasten9 and Perndog2006: 14
19. PanchoM: 13
20.-21. chec and chris2787: 10

The mean score was 22.38. 9 people scored above the mean and 12 people scored below the mean.

Here is the sum of these two components, which counts 25% of the total score which is the same amount as the Hexagonal score predictions:

1. Hou-Mon: 69
2. DM8512: 68
3. desertfox: 66
4. schrutebuck: 57
5.-6. DLee and tomwilhelm: 56
7. Ronaldinho11: 52
8. MoRado: 51
9. El Cabrito: 50
10. EvanJ: 49
11. IASocFan: 48
12. jared9999: 44
13. Trin: 40
14. vanbasten9: 35
15. zacateca: 34
16. Pepsinono: 33
17. chec: 31
18. chris2787: 30
19.-20. benitoelwerito and PanchoM: 28
21. Perndog2006: 26

The mean score was 45.29. 11 people scored above the mean and 10 people scored below the mean.

 

Your welcome. I expect somebody will start a contest to predict the whole World Cup, and I don't think I would spend the time scoring predictions for that. I might be willing to start a contest for just CONCACAF teams.
At some point I will post overall results (including all rounds) in a new topic.