At this point, it's pretty simple. Get seven points in the next three matches, or six points in the next two matches: almost certainly go straight to Russia. Fall short of that standard, but defeat either Honduras or Panama: probably go to a playoff with AFC. Anything else: Warm up the couch. Away at Honduras is now a must-not-lose game, and playing for a draw is no longer enough. We're about to find out what this team is made of.
Please remember everyone: FIFA and CONCACAF will take a financial hit if Honduras or Panama qualify instead of the USA. If they are as corrupt as everyone here thinks they are, strange things ought to start happening now to help us.
Also- as bad as it seems, our remaining opponents are all teams we should beat. Get 6 from he next two and we are there. Never want to go on the road needing 3, but it's gut check time. We are certainly capable of going to Honduras and beating a team that we beat 6-0 a few months ago.
Well, I expect Arena not to go there playing open and expecting an easy win like he did yesterday. We're at our best when we're cautious. Lock the door first, worry about driving around the block after.
If we get 7 points we will finish with 15. If the draw is against Trinidad and Tobago, we would finish ahead of Honduras with at most 14 and Panama with at most 13. If the draw is against Panama, we would finish ahead of Honduras and Panama with at most 14 each. If the draw is against Honduras, we would finish ahead of Panama with at most 13, and we will finish ahead of Honduras unless they win their last two games and make up the goal differential. If we win our last two games by 1 goal each, Honduras would need to beat Costa Rica and Mexico by at least 10 goals combined. Therefore 7 points is nothing to worry about. If we get 6 points in the next two games, we will finish ahead of Panama, and we will finish ahead of Honduras unless they make up the goal differential. If we win our next two games and Honduras doesn't win at Costa Rica, we will qualify on Matchday 9. If we get 6 points with a loss to Honduras, we will qualify if Honduras gets 2 or fewer points from playing Costa Rica and Mexico or if Honduras gets 3 points from those games and doesn't make up the goal differential. If we get 6 points with a loss to Panama, we will finish ahead of Honduras unless they beat Costa Rica and Mexico by a lot. In that case goal differential with Panama could matter. For example, if we win by 1, lose to Panama by 2 (I'm not saying we will do that bad, it's a hypothetical), and win by 1, we will finish +1. If Panama beats Trinidad and Tobago by 1 and us by 2, they will be +2 with one game left, and they would lead us by 2 points, so with a draw against Costa Rica they would tie us on points and win the tiebreaker. If we get 5 points with a win over Honduras, we will finish ahead of Honduras and Panama as long as neither of them wins both of their games not against us. If we get 5 points with a 1 goal win over Panama, we will finish ahead of Panama unless they beat Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica by at least 5 goals combined (4 goals would tie the goal differential and we would probably win the goals scored tiebreaker that we lead Panama on by 7 so far). We would finish ahead of Honduras unless they won their last two games or got a win by at least 9 goals and a draw. If we get 5 points with a win over Trinidad and Tobago, our comparison with Honduras will be the same as in the previous sentence, and we would finish ahead of Panama unless they beat Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica. Therefore I disagree with what I underlined because win-draw-draw or draw-win-draw will probably be enough for third.
Yeah. I get the feeling Arena (and the rest of the team) knows that last night was unacceptable. I expect a change in either tactics, personnel, or both. Expect a very angry US team in San Pedro Sula on Tuesday Oh, and I expect Gonzo or Besler in the backline instead of Ream.
This is what I like to see in Honduras. ----------------------------Wood------------------------------ Nagbe - Pulisic ----------Ariola ------------MB ---------------------Cam-------------- Johnson - Besler_Gonzo---------Lichaj -------------Hamid------------------ Up top - Let Nagbe and Pulisic feed the ball behind the defense for Wood to run onto. This is what he's good at. Or start Dempsey, and let him do hold up duty and kick the ball back to Nagbe, Pulisic, and MB making runs into the box. Dempsey also combine well and make smart runs in the box. Midfield - MB and Cam hold the fort, while Pulisic drive the offense Defense - Besler is a very smart CB. Besler and Gonzo has proved to be more than adequate CB pairing and familiarity with each other. Johnson/Lichaj should be more than adequate at FB duties, while offering some offensive threat. Goal - Hamid deserves a chance to shine in games that truly matters. Howard is regressing quickly, while Guzan is right behind him.
Face it, the USMNT just doesn't have what it takes this cycle. The refereeing in Honduras will be worse than at Red Bull Arena. I can see us barely qualifying in a playoff with an AFC team. The young uns aren't ready for the WC. So, the squad you're now watching, with the inclusion of Brooks, Yedlin, maybe Williams and Miazga, is our WC team. No reason to really bother watching the qualifiers or the WC, in which we'll be three games and out. My cynicism is well founded after last night's game. I have no faith in our coach, who's actually mellowed from his past obnoxious stance. Even a coach like Peckerman couldn't have righted this ship. Ugh.
I think many are overly dissing on the team and our chances IF we make it to Russia. This team absolutely has the horses to advance past the group stage. If for no other reason that, in general, the quality of Refs will be much better and they won't miss a clear PK and red card.
Who on this team can get angry? Wood and Dempsey are the only two I can think of. Stone Cold Bradley? Nope. Lovable, huggable Zusi? Not intimidating. Invisible Nagbe? Not a superhero. Part of our problem is we are toothless cowards.
Pulisic can get angry. And as he grows and mature, he's gonna get some tooth. Agreed with you, Bradley is a terrible choice for the captain's arm band.
If Dempsey doesn't start up front I'm going to be completely infuriated, because that alone will completely neuter Pulisic, again, and result in him getting kicked out of the game, again. There isn't another player on the roster capable of combining with him. Nobody else sees the game as well as those two. Play Dempsey 65 minutes and get a lead instead of hoping your starters don't trip on their own junk and you have to come from behind on the road in the jungle. If FJ starts, I'm going to be doubly infuriated. This game calls for players who give a crap. That isn't him. He's not a midfielder internationally and I don't care where he wants to play; he's not Cristiano Ronaldo. He's a complete nobody and shouldn't get to dictate his preferred position. Finally, screw that starting time and forever screw BeIN sports and their 1992-era Soviet broadcast quality.
It's really tricky to figure out the right general approach to this one (before you even get into formations and picking the starting 11), but I think this is how I would go. I worry that if the US comes out too fired up and wanting to go forward to redeem themselves from last night, they'll wilt in the heat come the 2nd half. I'd rather start cautiously, keep things compact at the back, and then gradually push forward more as the game goes on, if that seems feasible.
General request to all readers: please post info re sites that will be streaming this match, for those of us who do not get Bein.
The 5:36 P.M. start time is later than the 5:00 P.M. start in February 2013, and in 2009 the game at Honduras wasn't on TV. Do you get NBC Universo?
Any guesses on what Bruce will do? He really has to get it right this time. I wonder if three in the back with Cam Gonzo Besler would be any good. I don't who wore Geoff's jersey but that was the worst game I ever saw him play. Who can play the WB spots? I want Pulisic central. I also think we need to give him some protection, if the ref won't do it then we need to let them know it won't be tolerated with some professional fouling. Who on the roster can give us that? SMH, Jozy WTF? Trying not to go all negative as I was very positive about Russia pre CR and now not sure if we can even get a point in Honduras.
It's interesting to think about how HON will play this. The knee jerk reaction is for the US to come out firing and possess the ball - setting HON up for the counter, and then we are replaying the CR game, albeit with much more rolling around and play-acting if HON gets the lead. The US is built (like most CONCACAF teams) to score on transition. See CR's two goals last night - neither was from sustained build-up in the offensive third. Start out compact, invite HON forward and then roast them on the counter to get the first goal. Oh, and play Besler and Gonzalez. This game requires CONCACAF defenders. And play Acosta/Bedoya/Dax with Bradley and put Pulisic in front of them.
That doesn't mean I have to like a start time that has 3/4 of our country at work and on a channel that no one gets and plays infomercials and Barcelona replays 75% of the time.
Also, please no Ray Hudson. I don't need to hear him shouting in glee like an old man over nothing, and using idiotic metaphors and adjectives. It makes me angrier than a yak in heat.