WC 2018 Group B: Spain Portugal Iran Morocco

Does Uzbekistan play similar football like Iran? Morocco will probably play a friendly against them.

 

Not really. Iran and Uzbekistan are quite different (including tactically), even though within Asia, both are considered to be physically strong sides. But Uzbekistan is much weaker in defense and weaker offensively while they might be comparable in midfield. Iran, of course, comfortably beat Uzbekistan home and away without giving Uzbekistan much of a chance to score against us in either match. Our overall record against them in 10 matches between the two sides is 6 wins for Iran, 3 draws, and 1 loss.

 

Morocco will also play Serbia. Both matches will be played in march.

 

Spain will never be kicked out though. Would Italy get in, replacing Spain?

 

I spent some time reading this part of the forum, and while I admire the enthusiasm of Iranian fans, you guys need to be a little bit realistic and look at the facts. You do not have a single player in a top European club (NOT A SINGLE ONE), and almost none in a top 5 European league. You can't have a team full of players from Heerenveen, Charleroi, Ostersund, AZ Alkmar, Panionios, or Dinamo Zagreb etc, and brag in front of teams like Portugal and Spain. The reality of things is that Spain and Portugal are the heavy favorites in this group, Morocco is 3rd, and Iran is 4th. Having said that, anything is possible in football, and anything can happen with some talent plus enough heart, team spirit, organization, and discipline, but please let's show some modesty. The craziest thing is that Spain has by far the strongest team in this group and you don't hear a single Spanish fan talking in this section. That should be enough to humble us... I don't agree 100% with Transfermarkt on everything that they post, but it is one of the more accurate tools to assess the value of a team and as of now, in the world cup in terms of players' value, Spain ranks 4th with 603.5 million Euros, Portugal ranks 9th with 209.05 Euros (and without Cristiano Ronaldo), Morocco ranks 19th with 97.9 Million Euros, and Iran ranks 25th with 42.40 Million Euros. It's as simple as that in terms of each team's value in the world market.
https://www.transfermarkt.com/weltmeisterschaft-2018/startseite/pokalwettbewerb/WM18

I honestly don't have anything against the Iranian team. I met some amazing Iranian people, and I supported Iran in previous world cups. I would also be very happy for Iran if it surprised everybody in the world cup (including Morocco), but humbleness goes a long way and if anything it can be a sign of confidence...

Cheers!

 

Transfer market value is something to keep a look at, but to build an argument on it, comparing aggregate values of teams whose players are born in Europe (including Morocco, who has 19 such players on its squad) with players who (with a few exceptions) are all born and raised in Iran is absurd. Besides the distance, language barrier, unfamiliarity and host of other things that makes recruitment play out differently, Iran is also a country which has been under significant sanctions making even the most ordinary transaction (particularly worth over 10,000 Euro) a huge head ache.

In any case, posters here are free to have their own views on how various teams stack up against one another and overall. As long as they can respect the right of other posters to have a different view, that is fine with me. Never mind that between Iran and Morocco, other than the better familiarity that Morocco enjoys among European football fans due to its proximity and players who play in Europe, pretty much all the other factors favor Iran. Specifically, Iran outranks Morocco according to both FIFA and ELO rankings. Even subjective so-called expert rankings (which are influenced by the proximity and other factors I mentioned which favor Morocco) include many who rate Iran above Morocco and give Iran a better chance in the group than they give Morocco. On the latter, I can refer to two such power rankings off hand: the one by yahoo sports and the one by Sports Illustrated, which goes to show that you don't need to be an Iranian fan to give Iran some chance to advance from its group and to rate Iran above Morocco.

https://sports.yahoo.com/world-cup-2018-power-rankings-brazil-germany-early-favorites-040611275.html
World Cup 2018 Power Rankings: Brazil, Germany the early favorites

https://www.si.com/soccer/2017/11/16/world-cup-power-rankings-russia-2018
World Cup Power Rankings: How the 2018 Field of 32 Nations Stacks Up

 

Lol this rankings and market value bullshit again.
This is the worldcup anyone can be beaten and anyone can win.

 

Based on the study released comparing age, height, and place of birth of the teams that have qualified to the World Cup, this is how the teams in Group B compare to one another:

In terms of height, the teams in Group B would rank as follows:

1- Iran average height 183.4 cm
2- Morocco average height 182.4 cm
2- Portugal average height 180.5 cm
4- Spain average height 179.5 cm

In terms of youngest to oldest in age, the Group B teams would rank as follows:

1- Iran average age 26.5
2- Morocco average age 27.2
3- Portugal average age 27.7
4- Spain average age 28.0

In terms of lowest to highest number of foreign born players, the ranking would be:

1- Iran
2- Spain
3- Portugal
4- Morocco

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y...of-2018-fifa-world-cuptm-squads-2921426.html#

 

I agree with you in general but even more so when it comes to our group. Iran/Morocco is to me a toss up unless you have a reason to pretend otherwise. Iran/Portugal will be intriguing given the Queiroz factor. And Morocco/Spain has its own interesting dynamics as well.

 

I should add the following to my last post: just because a match, in a fair assessment, might be considered a toss up before it is played, doesn't mean the score will necessarily be close or the game will be even. It only means that the objective factors to look at will make one hard pressed to pick a favorite. An example in this regard would be the semifinal match between Brazil and Germany in World Cup 2014. While I was one of those who picked Germany to win the match, many others would have picked Brazil. Overall the game would have been seen as a toss up of sorts in a fair assessment based on the totality of factors and circumstances. Conversely, anyone who had predicted a 7:1 win for Germany against Brazil in a World Cup hosted by Brazil would have been rightly ridiculed for being out of their mind. Yet, when that match was played, Germany outplayed Brazil all over the pitch and the game was more lopsided than any other in that tournament. That is why the game is played: while we can try to objectively analyze the facts and circumstances, ultimately teams will do as well or as poorly as they show up in their game. At this level and in Group B, the outcome of any of these matches is not foreordained. The best one can say is that going into the match, one side will be favored by better odds of winning compared to the other. And in that sense, of course, Spain and Portugal are the clear favorites in this group. Iran/Morocco, on the other hand, will depend on who you ask and what informs their attitude and thinking.

 

Oh so you wanna play the game "my underdog/small team is better than your underdog/small team"? Sure, I can play.

Basically, according to you, we shouldn't give a lot of attention to the players' actual value in the world market or the teams where they play, but rather focus on what American "soccer" experts on Yahoo and Sports Illustrated say, as well as geopolitics, and FIFA and ELO rankings. Hmmm. 1) If you want to focus on the speculation of journalists I can post hundreds of links of European sources that dismiss Iran completely. 2) if you want to talk about geopolitics, I think that the Afghanistan national team and Afghani soccer players would also have more visibility and opportunities if it weren't for geopolitics, language barrier, and distance from Europe. I forgot to also include Madagascar, and Papua New Guinea... They would also have more visibility and we should therefore give their current teams more value. Yes Sir.

And 3) You want to focus on Fifa rankings? So Iran (32) is also way better than Nigeria (ranked 50th), and the US (23rd) which currently has a non-existent team (and trust me I support the USNMT and watch their games) is way better than Serbia (37th), and Peru is better than England and Croatia. Morocco which ranked 10th in the world in April 1998 OBVIOUSLY went on and made it to second round of that world cup, and the US which ranked 11th in May 1998 won heavily again Iran which ranked 42nd back then http://football24.info/fifa-ranking/ Right? I love your Fifa ranking logic. Do you understand that both ELO and FIFA rankings are flawed mainly because a confederation like the African one plays almost half of the world cup qualifying games played in other confederations and therefore gets less Fifa points? Do you also know that Fifa ranking is based on the last four years and not the form of the moment? Finally, also based on your logic, would Morocco suddenly become a better team than Iran if it climbs 10 spots in February by winning the local national team African Cup hosted at home in January? Those games count towards rankings and we won't even be using our actual national team... So be ready to shuffle your logic if that happens.. just a heads up...

Dude, the truth is that our subs include players like Feddal (Real Betis), Harit (Shalke 04), Sofiane Amrabat (Fenenoord), and Boufal (Southampton). If any of these players were in your team, they would be the STAR of your team. They are our subs.

Do you have any other theories you want to share?

Cheers

 

The game has to be played, upsets happen all the time, nothing could be more true. Anyone that disrespects another country in this tournament is taking a big risk. The way I see this group is Spain first Portugal second (only because I dont feel confident with the Portuguese back 4 otherwise I would choose Portugal to finish first) Morocco would finish third and Iran 4th. As far as the "Queiroz factor " is concerned ? There is none. First he was one of our worst coaches ever. Second most of the players he coached are no longer playing on this team, third you dont need inside info on Portugal. All teams know the Portuguese players and how the team plays. There are no secrets. Queiroz does not bring in any advantage over any other coach. If Iran has a good showing against Portugal, it will be to the players credit and not to some supposed insight that Queiroz had.

 

All the facts you want to discuss regarding your team can be looked at by many others, including those who rate and rank Iran above Morocco (and vice versa). When the two sides play, we will see which one is better.

As for your criticism of FIFA's rankings, ELO rankings are actually much better for Iran. Not that I believe these rankings prove anything more than your subjective views prove. But it is rich being lectured on humility when I have called Iran/Morocco a toss up, by a fan of a side that (a) is ranked below Iran by not just FIFA, but even more so by ELO; (b) is ranked below Iran by quite a few publications who rank teams on subjective grounds (e.g., the power rankings I posted); and (c) hasn't been to the World Cup since 1998.

In the meantime, you just didn't understand much of what I wrote (including why you can't compare transfer market value of players born in Europe with those who aren't) so offering other theories is a waste of time.

 

We will see how the group standings end up, but the Queiroz factor I alluded to wasn't just about any "insights" he has regarding Portugal's team. I just have a sense that Queiroz has something to prove back home and will make sure his players give their 120% and more against Portugal.

To expand on what I mean: one of the things that helps favorites against underdogs is generally the greater willingness of the underdog side to accept defeat when things aren't going well for them. Psychologically, the players are more likely to feel they have nothing to be ashamed losing to a more fancied or favored side and may be more prone to let up and not show their best. That dynamic will probably not apply when Iran faces Portugal.

 

I understood what you said perfectly and I disagree. Once a player plays in Europe, his market value should be more or less reflective of reality. An Iranian player playing in Belgium or the Netherlands for years is not going to have a low market value simply because he is Iranian. I agree with your logic when it comes to Iranian players based in Iran because of lack of visibility vis a vis whomever decides on those market values.

I am just intrigued by your tendency to focus on everything else but the club names and leagues where players actually play or their perceived value (or names) in the world. By your logic I could take any Asian or North American national team that has a half decent ranking and shows up at every world cup (because of the nature of the regional confederation) and argue that they are much better than they are. Sure, Iran has no-name players playing in secondary leagues but it's better than Morocco because it qualifies to almost every world cup, ranks 32 in the world, and because the media that you choose to follow says so. Sure.

 

I didn't say transfer market values are irrelevant to the equation and I do look at where players for each of these teams play and how they are doing. That is one part of the equation. It is not the only part, however. Ultimately, try to look at the totality of facts and factors which I have access to and derive my judgment on the totality of those facts. My judgement is that Iran/Morocco is a toss up.

In any case, I was trying to see if there was a ranking system that was truly close to how I see things and came across this one which still had a bunch of rankings I disagree with. But at least, when it comes to Iran/Morocco, it comes closest to how I see the match up. As a toss up. (On the other hand, if I really wanted to use FIFA or ELO, I would have said Iran should be easily favored).

https://thepowerrank.com/world-football-soccer/

 

Incidentally, there is a thread focused on Morocco and its players and where they play. There is also one that I started on the subject for Iran. If you want we can continue comparing players for each our teams in that thread. For now, Iran's 2 most expensive players are Sardar Azmoun (transfer market value 11 million Euro) and Alireza Jahanbakhsh (transfer market value 5.5 million Euro). (Morocco's most expensive players are worth around 15 million Euro). While both of the players I mentioned are highly likely to start for Iran, neither is assured of starting and they do face stiff competition for a place on the team from players with lower transfer market values. But even if comparing transfer values between Iranian players is somewhat suggestive of their value and worth to the team (not always), comparing them with transfer values for players born in Europe (including 19 such players on Morocco's team) is really misleading. Except for a couple of Iranian players who might find their transfer values more or less properly reflective based on the what you mentioned and the length of time they have played in Europe, the rest are rather new players in Europe (or don't play in Europe) and it all becomes apples and oranges to compare them with players born in Europe. Especially if you had a clue about the complications involved in transferring an Iranian player due to various non-football related issues.

 

Ya stats and rankings make for interesting conversation. I get you and conversation is fun. In the end on a 0-0 game, one inch to the either side of the post is the difference between a win and a loss. Im very much into intangibles such as having players that always seem to rise to the occasion. Always make the play (score or make the big save etc) when the team needs it. How do you measure that ? Iran's success will be tied to how well the defend and counter attack IMO . Morocco intrigues me as they can do both. Not sure what to expect to be honest.

 

I think you actually have touched on a good and important point about what often decides a game. But I think your image of Iran is not exactly accurate. Iran can do both too. Even under Queiroz This Iranian team is pretty good, more exciting than what you might recall, while the Iran team in 2014 was a lot more pedestrian. And we do have players who have shown capable of rising to the occasion. Sure, we don't have anyone quite like Ronaldo, but you will find Iran to be a rather good team with players who can impress.

 

I can just imagine the excitement level in Iran .

 

I am definitely not an expert on Iranian football but I do have a clue how complicated it is politically (I work in the international NGO field in the MENA region) and I honestly find it impressive that you have many players in Europe despite the distance and the geopolitical challenges. Morocco is a few miles away from Europe and we haven't been able to export many players in the past 10 years... Hopefully this is just the start and you will move up to even better leagues and teams as time passes and your players get more recognition.

 

Iran does face special challenges which you seem to be aware of. And under the circumstances, I agree we have done alright transferring players to Europe. But compared to the past, the numbers had become much lower and the quality of the leagues we had players transfer to weren't the same either. On the latter, in the late 1990s and thereafter for several years, Iran had as many as 20 players in Europe. Many of them in the Bundesliga (including 3 with Bayern Munich) and a sprinkling in the other big leagues. The most notable among them would have been Ali Daei (Bayern Munich, Hertha Berlin etc), Ali Karimi (Bayern Munich), Mehdi Mahdavikia (Hamburg SV etc), Javad Nekounam (Osasuna, La Liga), Vahid Hashemian (Bochum, Bayern Munich), but also others who have played in all the other big leagues as well (Serie A, EPL etc).

 

That's actually the generation that i am most aware of. I grew up watching Karimi, Mahdavikia, and Daei. The way I see it, Iran is one of those teams that never really got lucky at a world cup and it's bound to happen at some point since you guys qualify most of the time and you do have talent. I just hope that it doesn't happen against Morocco haha This WC group is kind of weird for me because I like all four teams so it's just heartbreaking no matter what... If it were up to me all four teams would move to the second round!

I want to watch an Iran game to learn more about the team. What game do you recommend as your best game this past year that reflects Iran's real level (preferably against a decent opponent)? Sometimes I feel that our opinions are so biased because they are based on players or leagues or rankings or market values, but at the end of the day you don't know the quality of a team unless you sit down and watch them play at least twice and not just the youtube highlights...

 

IM would know better than me of course, but I though Iran's WC qualifier against South Korea in late 2016 was an interesting well-played match, between two motivated sides.