WC 2018, Group A: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Uruguay

Pretty much agreed. Egypt will have to beat Russia to be able to advance. I think they will if Salah is himself, but if he's not, a draw seems the most likely result, and then Russia will advance via Goal Difference. Egypt has to play to win against Russia, and try to steal a point against Uruguay since Russia may be able to steal one from Uruguay if they rest guys in the group stage finale.

 

Look. I know Uruguay are favourites but well... they haven't won tomorrow's game yet.

Also since when is 7 pts needed to progress?

 

True enough, but unless Salah is good to go at 100%, I have a hard time seeing Egypt winning. I think a shock draw could happen, these guys could definitely play to a 0-0 scoreline. I could see that. But there's a reason the odds have changed so radically since the Champions League Final.

At this point the odds are:
Uruguay: -180
Draw: +280
Egypt: +585

That isn't a lock by any means, but it's reasonable confidence in an Uruguay win. Otoh, the fivethirtyeight folks have the odds of an Egypt Win or a draw at 46%. I think that's a huge stretch, if I were to lay down expectations it would look something like:

Draw: 20%
Egypt win: 15%
Uruguay win: 65%

So yes, maybe I'm being a bit hard on Egypt. Honestly, I have no idea what Salah's going to show up, or even if he will at all. I think Egypt could kill the game, hope for a counter, and shut Uruguay's attack down. Honestly other than a clear Uruguay win, I think the most likely result is a 0-0 draw (has the feel of that if Salah isn't ready to go, and Egypt can shut down Suarez and Cavani with superb defense). Egypt is just such a different team with Salah. I'm beyond incensed at what happened to him. After waiting for 28 years, that injury was beyond unnecessary and was infuriating to me, and I don't really care about Egypt as much as I think w/the quality and heartbreak they've had over the years, they deserved better than yet more cynical play from Ramos potentially derailing their hopes. Of course the maelstrom around Spain now could serve as karmic retribution of a sort if it actually impacts their national teams play on the field.

 

Oh and for the record, before the Salah injury I had this:

Uruguay 9
Egypt 6
Russia 3
Saudi Arabia 0

I've had a hard time settling on a prediction since, and now it would be a bit ridiculous, but if Salah is good to go tomorrow, and especially if he's good to go match day 2, I expect the same results. If he's not, I suspect it will be:

Uruguay 7
Russia 5
Egypt 4
Saudi Arabia 0

Hope he's good to go.

 

the GD of +5, unless I'm mistaken, is a tiebreaker if they finish level on points, I don't see Egypt scoring five on Saudi Arabia, they don't seem built to win games like that unless they're playing against cones (and granted the Saudi's looked like that at times today).

 

Still... you don't need 7 pts to progress. 6 pts is enough and Egypt has the benefit of playing Saudi Arabia last. There is no guarantee that Uruguay will beat Saudi Arabia with an equally high scoreline. If anything - World Cup history shows this to be unlikely.

If three teams end at 6 pts than as mentioned Egypt has full control over its fate in the last game.

 

as i predicted on the day that saudi clinched qualification, saudi embarrassed asia. i didnt think they would be so abysmal against an average side russian side though, i had predicted the blowout to come versus uruguay. for those of you who didnt follow AFC qualifying, saudi finished 2nd behind japan and got an automatic berth. however, their 2nd place finish was inflated, due to getting favourable calls from the ref (several penalties) while other teams lost points due to bad calls, and also australia underperforming. saudi deserved to be 3rd in their group (they finished ahead of australia only based on goal differential, and again, due to AFC favouritism unseen anywhere else in the world, they got to player AFTER australia on the last matchday, so they had the luxury of being able to play for a draw and not having to commit too many numbers up front and risk losing their last game, that too the game was against an already-qualified japan which means japan would play calm and relaxed and would punish saudi if saudi was desperate for 3 points and played an attacking game). if they finished 3rd like they were supposed to, they might not have gotten past syria and honduras to even qualify to the world cup.

saudi pass the ball well but thats about it. their defense is abysmal, and they cant create chances against strong teams so even though they had good finishing during AFC qualifiers, it is meaningless if you cant create chances. they had 0 shots on goal today and only 2 half chances despite having 61% possession.

 

Just got back from the match... what a blowout - Moscow is going crazy tonight, but have to wake up in 3 hours to catch my flight to Kaliningrad. Anywhere, here's some footage of what I got so far:

Opening ceremony:


1st Goal:


Golovin's Freekick:

 

No team will beat Saudi Arabia with a larger or equivalent GD. So at this point, Russia is almost guaranteed to get out of the group with even just one draw out of their remaining two games. (The draw ideally being with the loser of tomorrow's game)

 

I cannot see Egypt defeating Russia in Russia, during WC event. Draw is not likely either, I think, even if Salah would be 100% healthy, which he isn't. As we saw today, Russia is not great, yet Cherchesov got their strengths, like athleticism, height, and general discipline, where they should be. Egypt, but Salah, has no one really to put against Russian physicality. Russians will simply do, what they did today - deliver free kicks or corners to their 195 cm forwards. Should be enough to score one, maybe two past Egypt.

Salah at Liverpool has Firmino and Mane to help him out - here, even at 100% fitness, he will be alone. As I said before - Russia is not crashing out from this group during their own WC. Russians are in good position to qualify, or potentially even take the group on goal difference, if they can pull out a lucky draw v Celestes.

Tomorrow, I expect Uruguay will attempt to cut the goal difference as much as possible - 3:0 v Egypt I expect. Suarez and Cavani are some serious firepower, while Godin's lead defense should be impregnable to Egypt without Salah (or with 70% fit Salah).

 

It's called being the host nation.

Only one host nation failed to make it out of the group phase and that was South Africa in 2010.

I don't think Saudi Arabia would lose to Russia if this tournament was held elsewhere. Remember, Saudi Arabia played very well against Germany about a week ago.

 

It only occured to me. Eid started only yesterday evening, so when Saudi Arabia were playing yesterday, they were playing while fasting (unless they got dispensation to eat, but given Saudi Arabia's hardline stance I doubt it). That could have impacted their concentration and drive, so we may see a stark improvement in quality of play in their next game. This also could impact how well Egypt play, because their prep to the tournament was during fasting period.

 

Makes sense.

Against Germany they looked way different.

On neutral grounds and no fasting they beat Russia no problem.

 

So apparently after the match, the Saudi coach was so mad at his teams performance that he ordered them all to wake up at the crack of dawn for practice. The Saudi keeper however slept in, so his teammate called him to wake him up, "Get up, get it's 6!" he said and the Saudi keeper said, "What? They scored again?"

 

and he strikes again!

 

Very unfortunate end to the match for Egypt. They'd be in a much better position if they had just about managed the draw. I don't see Egypt matching Russia's performance against Saudi Arabia, so as long as Russia can manage a respectable scoreline against Uruguay, a draw against Egypt should be enough for them to advance at this point.

I'm assuming Salah will come in for the next match. He'd better be in top form or Egypt is out for all intents and purposes.

 

Uruguay just love to complicate themselves

 

Quite funny!

 

Didn't expect the Saudis to suck so bad, but I got the right winners in the first two games. I think most of us did.

The Russia-Egypt as a tie is my big gamble, together with Russia beating Uruguay. We'll see.

 

Russia are the host team... the hosts can win it all and have won it all 6/19 world cups. It’s a pretty good chance. Lately it happens every twenty years. 1978. 1998. 2018?

You heard it here first! Fox gonna steal myprediction reading these forums lol! I want credit!

 

Hee hee.... Don't say I didn't call this 2 weeks ago

 

You and me both bro! I wrote this on May 3 and people said I was crazy.

 

Unpopular pick to win the WC= Uruguay

Despite their offensive flaws of late, I think they still have a rigid defense that can defend the best teams in the tourney. Besides, Suarez and Cavani can pop up with goals out of no where.

 

It's a boost if the team had a chance anyway but the hosting job doesn't make teams that had no chance win the whole thing. Get to the quarters though? Sure.

 

Is anyone a favorite? The only team that hasn’t looked beatable is Russia and they’ve faced some pretty bad opponents so far..