Coaches have employed this tactic for decades. Jose Mourinho is currently using it with Manchester United to great effect. More relevant is that you are using different types of forwards to keep the defense unbalanced and guessing. I was disappointed in NZ. Usually, teams give us a better 2nd game because they've had more time to prepare and are more familiar with the opposition. NZ looked like they'd given up before they even started.
But, you have to look at whether Morgan is a first half scorer. To me, she's looked more out of it than Press during recent WNT first halfs. My observation is she's not that effective early in games. She's more effective when the value of her speed is maximized.
The problem is that she's gotten very little service in the first half. Ellis likes to test the waters before going deep. The US should try and apply pressure early on and get Morgan more looks on goal. In her last 10 matches with Orlando and the USWNT she has scored 12 goals on barely twice as many shots. Just keep feeding her ball over the top or inside, even if it's intercepted a few times. She's done well for Orlando in the first half.
Looking at Alex's Orlando games this year and her Women's National Team games over the last year (plus a couple of days), she has had 3 first half goals plus another first half goal by PK. She's had 11 second half goals (none by PK). All of her WNT goals (6 of them) have been in the second half. Admittedly, however, in her WNT games, she's come in in the second half in a bunch of them. But, she played first halfs against New Zealand (9/15), Brazil, England, and Netherlands and had no goals in those first halfs.
Fair enough, but the matches you mentioned, Morgan hadn't hit her stride as she has now. After her hamstring injury she did struggle a bit. Also, Press only has 2 goals in 12 matches for the NT this year, so maybe we should be starting Williams and let her tire defenders with her physicality and speed.
To continue with the point above, I'm not exactly sure how you can deploy this strategy when you only have 3 substitutions. I can't see any coach liking the idea of using one of their valuable subs as a scheduled change at halftime. If the idea is to have Press play 75 minutes and give Morgan only 15 to salvage the game, then we're really asking for trouble if down by a goal, even with tired defenders. At that point the opposing coach would just sub in 2 additional fresh defenders to strictly mark Morgan, and then it's game, set and match. I truly believe that your best forward should always start, even if 70% of their goals are scored in the 2nd half, unless they can't go the full 90. I can certainly see Carly being used as a late sub at the age of 37.
I think it always helps to look at actual numbers. They aren't conclusive, but they can suggest some reasonable possibilities. After looking at Morgan's numbers, since we're talking about her and Press, I looked at Press's numbers. For the Red Stars, Press has scored 7 goals plus 3 PK goals. Of her 7 goals, 3 were in the first half and 4 in the second half Looking at Press's National Team goals, going back to the Romania games in November 2016 (the same place I went for Morgan's goals), Press scored 6 goals. 3 were in the first half and 3 in the second. So, she has a total of 6 goals in the first half and 7 in the second. That's compared to Morgan's 3 first half goals and 11 second half. While dredging up the National Team numbers, I saw something that might be meaningful or that might be a coincidence: All of Morgan's goals came either after she was subbed in at the same time Press was subbed out (in other words, after Press had preceded her on the field) or while she was on the field together with Press. Of course, correlation does not prove causation, but correlation does suggest there might be a causative relationship. And as an aside, 1 of Press's goals came after Morgan preceded her on the field and 1 came with Morgan on the field. 4 came when Morgan neither preceded her nor was on the field. So for the two of them together, 2/3 of their combined goals came from one of them when subbed in for the other or when they were on the field together.
The data is a bit skewed though since 3 of 4 goals Morgan has scored for the USWNT this year, she didn't even play in the first half. Plus, I could also make the argument that perhaps Morgan could've scored more goals in the first half if she could've started more than 3 of the 12 matches for the US this year. Maybe we should compare stats from all her starts from beginning of career.
Its not related to the Press-Morgan question, but my biggest takeaway from these games is that Ellis seems to be figuring out the midfield. Its not perfect yet, and of course, it certainly wasn't tested against a top team, but the middle three looked better in these 3 games than I can remember in months. And Ertz as an actual, true DM is the biggest piece of that, imo. This team plays better as a whole, imo, with a true DM and not two holding midfielders. However, I give Mewis some credit for the improved midfield as well. (BTW, Mewis is the only player besides Sauerbrunn who has started every game this year.) Ertz behind Mewis frees Mewis to be a true box-to-box midfielder without having to worry about being purely a holding midfielder, which I think plays to her strengths. The third spot in the midfield is up for grabs between Horan, Lavelle, Long, Lloyd, etc. I'm starting to agree with those who say this team can move on without Lloyd as a guaranteed starter. However, I do think she has a place on the roster as a starter against certain opponents and/or as a super sub.
Absolutely, the more data the better. I just don't have the energy right now to put all the data together. For both Morgan and Press. I"m going to make a guess about something where I think my answer probably is right: Jill Ellis and crew have done the full study.
Good points. I too believe that Ellis has found her midfield for 2019: Ertz, Mewis, and Horan. A big, strong, fast, aggressive trio. Lavelle may give competition to Horan. Where does that leave Lloyd and Brian? Sitting on the bench I suppose. And Sullivan? How does she fit in? Then the question is: who are are forwards going forward?....Morgan certainly, Pugh seems to be improving, Rapinoe, maybe, if she's still got gas in the tank, Williams, maybe. That leaves Press and Dunn on the bench -- and in danger of losing their positions on the national team Somebody like Hatch may rise to the occasion during the next year
I seem to have a slew of free time atm, so I found some stats: All career goals for Morgan: 2010: 4 goals in 2nd half (but never started a game) 2011: 0 in 1st half, 6 in 2nd half 2012: 14 in 1st half, 14 in 2nd 2013: 2 in 1st half, 4 in 2nd 2014: 1 in 1st half, 4 in 2nd 2015: 2 in 1st half, 5 in 2nd 2016: 4 in 1st half, 13 in 2nd 2017: 0 in 1st half, 4 in 2nd half Total: 23 in 1st half, 54 in 2nd half (70% of all goals in 2nd half) Career goals in games started for Morgan: 2010: 0 (no starts) 2011: 0 in 1st half, 2 in 2nd half 2012: 14 in 1st half, 12 in 2nd half 2013: 2 in 1st half, 4 in 2nd 2014: 1 in 1st half, 1 in 2nd 2015: 2 in 1st half, 4 in 2nd 2016: 4 in 1st half, 9 in 2nd 2017: 0 in 1st half, 1 in 2nd Total: 23 in 1st half, 33 in 2nd half (59% in 2nd half) All career goals for Press: 2013: 3 in 1st half, 5 in 2nd half 2014: 3 in 1st half, 8 in 2nd 2015: 3 in 1st half, 7 in 2nd 2016: 5 in 1st half, 7 in 2nd 2017: 0 in 1st half, 2 in 2nd Total: 14 in 1st half, 29 in 2nd (67% in 2nd half) Career goals in games started for Press: 2013: 3 in 1st half, 3 in 2nd half 2014: 3 in 1st half, 7 in 2nd (all 3 1st half goals+1 2nd half goal came in 1 game v ARG) 2015: 3 in 1st half, 3 in 2nd 2016: 5 in 1st half, 2 in 2nd (3 goals in 1st half in 1 game v Romania) 2017: 0 in 1st half, 1 in 2nd Total: 14 in 1st half, 16 in 2nd (53% in 2nd half) Make of it what you will, and I didn't look specially at who subbed for who and who was on the field at the same time (I don't have THAT much time), but I'd be interested to know whether goals, just generally speaking, are more likely to be scored in the 2nd half.
Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Your conclusion at the end also makes sense. One really quick note to add to your list is that Morgan was coming off the bench 100% of the in 2011 as well, so she didn't play in the first half. It's interesting that when she began starting in 2012, the goals were evenly split.
Mostly she was a sub in 2011. However, she did start in 2 games (of the 18 in which she played that year), and scored twice in one of those games (at the Algarve Cup vs. Finland).
Yes, you are correct.,I do remember that match. Another thing to also keep in mind is that assists also play a factor. Not sure how both players have fared on that end.