PBP: US-Curacao, Gold Cup Quarters, 6/30

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by thedukeofsoccer, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    What a strange game. The US looked good up to the goal. Well, parts looked good. After that, I think we expected them to come out a bit but they didn't seem to want to. Our players, as has been true forever, are not good when told to be passive. So, we would sit back but then when they didn't come, we would over commit. This would expose our #6. We then had to pull our #8 back. But we left our forwards up to do mindless running. In the second half, we didn't really adjust in any way and Curacao then pressed our back line and we couldn't hold the ball.

    The center of defense was a bit soft as Bradley is just soft and McKennie was obviously aware or told not to get a yellow. Did Wes have a foul in this game? He is usually good for half a dozen.

    Zardes is a problem. Several times, he came to help the build out and Bradley just refused to pass it to him. Pulisic and Boyd seemed like they were also happier to go for their own shot rather than try and combine with Zardes. Zardes disappears entirely for a big chunk of the game (except the fruitless jogging between CBs on defense) because the team is just bypassing him. We were essentially playing 10 v 11. Altidore is either not fit or has permanently lost pace and skill. Either way, GB was happy to end up with Zardes starting. But it just doesn't work.

    Ream played very well. Never wrote that before.

    Long was owned by Arias most of the night. He played about 2,000 minutes and scored 4 goals for a bottom table Eredivisie team. You know who scored 10 goals in 2500 minutes for a team that finished right next to Arias's team in the table? Novacovich; who hasn't even been invited to a camp. He has been doing well in Holland where they invented the Positional style Gregg is trying to implement. A style that Curacao can play better than us.

    The whole second half the team was a mess and not much was done about it. Either GB didn't think Curacao would score (they came pretty close) and was using it for some developmental reason, or he didn't know what to do. So much is discussed about the offense with this team but the defense was a problem last night. Not organized pressing, no pressure on the ball, no denial of the ball in Zone 14. Luckily, it was Curacao.

    We are starting to see a trend with Gregg where he values obedience over talent. Boyd got a lot of stick from Holden last night, and he was sloppy in possession, but playing next to Zardes he was basically alone. But Boyd was solving the team defense problem his way and got yanked for it. Morris came in though and was much worse. We saw in another game that GB was micro-managing Boyd. He probably does the same with Arriola and others, but they just follow instructions to the letter which is why they play every game. We will see if Boyd is dropped for Morris going forward.
     
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  2. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    Well I'll quibble with Zizzo (never ever looked the part, people got hyped on a long run and assist out of all proportion with reality) and to some degree w/Boss where the warning signs started flying up by the time he was in the meat of U20 play if memory serves. Boss definitely gave signs of concerns when he was still a teenager, though he was uberhyped before that and looked can't miss in his mid teens.

    Additionally I have two other thoughts, #1 I have a hard time imagining the U20 team wouldn't beat the dregs GGG keeps insisting on dragging out there, especially w/a better coach handling starting lineups than Tab who kept messing them up unless injury and card accumulations forced him to go against his preferences.

    #2 I just flat out have a hard time imagining that 16 of 20 field players are gonna crash out in development. There are clear signs that some of these guys didn't have it at the U20 level let alone the senior level (looking at you Keita, Durkin, Rennicks, KDLF, ) and others that may have played well, or not at all, but also don't look the part (looking at you, Real, Servania, Cerrillo, 2 or 3 of the keepers), but looking at the 20 field players, you're still left with:

    Araujo
    Gloster
    Richards
    Dest
    McKenzie

    Pomykal
    Ledezma
    Mendez

    Llanez
    Soto
    Weah

    That's 11 guys there that I believe in to some extent or another, Im not deluded all of these guys will hit, but I do think it's unreasonable to say 7 of them are going to pile into the clown car with the other guys that don't make it. Looking at Gloster, Richards, Dest, Pomykal, and Weah, I would flat out plug them into the Gold Cup 23 without a second thought. There's no way in any world I can imagine all the defenders are better than Gloster, Richards or Dest, Pomykal right now is better than Trapp and Bradley, and Weah is better than any winger on the team other than Pulisic, and a better option long term than any forward called in as well. Then you get the next grouping, Soto, Llanez, who looked far more dangerous than any Forward or winger we have again not named Pulisic, and possibly Boyd, Then you have the other factor, Araujo is considered a better prospect than any defender period, and look at the ages of the guys that impressed and people believed in after the tournament and the guys that disappointed, look at those ages:

    Weah-19
    Richards-19
    Pomykal-19


    Dest-18
    Gloster-18
    Mendez-18

    Cerrillo-18
    Llanez-18
    Soto-18


    KDLF-17
    Araujo-17

    I really like to use the breakout age/draft age metrics with the NFL to look at this and I would LOVE to see how much playing young at the U20/U23 WC's etc, playing up an age level, boosts prospect hit rates, because in all other sports, early breakout age is the single most important signifier (along with draft age). Its highly correlated w/future success, and if memory serves our squad was the youngest at the tournament, and definitely the youngest in the quarterfinals, and the bulk of the key players, Soto, Weah, Pomykal, Richards, Gloster, Dez, Mendez, and super sub Soto were all either 18 or 19, none close to 20 years old. Indeed of the stud field players, only one is within six months of turning 20 (Pomykal turns 20 in December).

    To me, I'll be utterly stunned if we don't get at least 10-12 with. a cap, and I fully expect us to get something close to 6-8 long term regulars out of the field players, I expect the hit rate to basically come close to doubling if not better, and I see a ceiling of probably 50-55% of field players hitting on the "receive a cap" data point.

    How would I rank them right now:

    5 Star (Potential Superstars for their position): 2
    Richards
    Araujo

    4 Star (good chance of hitting as Euro professionals):5
    Llanez
    Weah
    Pomykal
    Ledezma
    Soto
    Gloster
    Dest

    3 Star (Good prospects w/solid potential to play in Europe): 2
    Ochoa
    Mendez*
    Durkin**

    2 Stars (Guys to monitor):
    Cerrillo
    McKenzie

    *Mendez is the ultimate high ceiling low floor prospect

    **Durkin: Nobody had their stock fall farther. Wonder if he might already be better if DC had let him get the loan out to Germany or if he's now seen his ceiling and it's a lot lower than was hoped.

    What makes me so much more excited than the '07 team is that while the '07 team had Adu and Altidore as potential stars, and Bradley and Szetela as work rate Euro quality midfielders, the '19 team just fills out the roster top to bottom, guys like Zizzo to me in terms of ceiling and potential, would fit in between 15th-20th amongst the field players on this roster. The big difference is that while the '07 was about 4-5 deep in guys that might be legit options in Europe, we already have more than that in Europe pre tournament, and looking at the roster, personally, I could see 10 or more that are at or just a touch below that Altidore/Szetela. That's the difference, and people are sticking with the 3-4 guys make the leap analogy because it's just always sat at 3-5 for most countries.

    What we're ignoring is that:
    #1 This is the first group of guys that were a part of the radical change made to our development program. They are all professionals. Kind of reminds me of the first bradenton generation in 1999 making such a huge impact, and in contradistinction to that, we have the fed report that only 33 Bradenton grads grabbed a cap, a 7% hit rate in terms of at least 1 cap earned, horrific.

    #2 We can see a direct connection between bad crops, and low hit #'s (2009-2013 and kinda '15, while we can see a direct connection between good craps and higher hit rates ('01, '03, '07)

    #3 We also already know from other sports that when the talent at the senior or club level sucks, earning caps is typically easier unless your coach is a colossal moron (uh-oh). My crummy Wizards are going to have a high hit rate on prospects in '19-'20 and it is going to come w/positive good sides and negative sides. The departure of vets and tanking will lead to more chances for young players to earn the minutes to prove it or not, a lot of young prospects fail as because of lack of opportunity as because of lack of talent. Our new Center Thomas Bryant wouldn't have earned squat in minutes in '17-'18, but in '18-'19 w/Gortat out and Mahinmi glued to the bench, he did, and suddenly an obscure late 1st round draftee dropped by the lakers earned a 3 year 25 mill deal. Why? Opportunity. The USMNT is total garbage right now, the '90-'95 gap outlined by bshredder left it's imprimatur on the 2017 apocalypse at Couva, and the choices by GGG have only made that miserable reality more clear. There are HUGE gaps in the roster in terms of depth, and even First XI choice players that aren't 23 or younger, and for now GGG is refusing to do anything about it. The reality that we have so little talent in terms of players age 24+, and that so much of the roster is still being crammed w/these guys will have to be abandoned at some point, and when it is, young prospects will be getting those caps, earned in some instances, not so much in others (but honestly, can we really take seriously the idea of "earning caps" when we're handing Zardes a Starting XI stamp for the entire tournament, and entertaining the idea of starting guys like Baird, Lovitz, Ream, Bradley, Trapp, Roldan, Omar etc (and don't get me started on try hard guys like Arriola).

    At some point the issue will be forced. GGG's Gold Cup team is horse manure as a collective. Others (not you) can point to goals scored and allowed, and wins and losses and I'll point to what matters more: #1 How you play (because if you play at a similarly poor level across time, as we have under GGG, results dry up as the competition and situation gets tougher and tougher, we won't always be at home after all while getting outplayed by Curacao, soon we'll have to travel to Azteca, San Pedro Sula, and the ultimate nightmare, Sapprisa) and #2 Process, and if you're process sucks, it will flat out cave in all levels of the teams and we can already see that happening with 2017, and the general horrific quality of play over time since 2015.
     
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  3. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    Yep, quality of play matters far more over time than individual results, and if we are winning with hideous performances, and losing with even worse ones, that check will come due very soon and it will be much, much worse. We are playing like garbage and getting away with it. We didn't before the tournament, and we won't much longer. If you can barely beat Curacao at home, and get worked by Jamaica and Venezuela in friendlies at home, San Pedro Sula, Saprissa, and Azteca will be far worse than just a bridge too far, they will be total humiliations on a scale not seen before.

    The fall of 2019 will be the red line for many of the die hard fan base. You'll still get some lunatics to waste money on this organization/team afterwards, but we can already seen hemorraging of the fan base in the shrinking attendance rates. If he continues to insist on these dog manure rosters, and First XI's in the fall during open Fifa Dates a lot of the fan base is going to flat out check out, especially if such habits continue into semi-final round qualifying for the World Cup, when the consequences for such idiocy would be a second consecutive missed World Cup. At that point any and all tolerance for this cr@p will be long gone especially as even casual fans will notice guys like Josh Sargent, Chris Gloster, Timothy Weah, Chris Richards and Sergino Dest starting in Europe over the weekend, not to mention guys like Soto, Llanez, Mendez, Ledezma and the like, and we continue to see absurdist MLS 1983 caliber starters continue to insinuate themselves into 23's.
     
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  4. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
  5. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    Why do you keep repeating that you didn't understand?

    I already know.
     
  6. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    This isn't the first time this silly claim has been made. Nor will it be the last.

    All it does it show how clueless you are about the difference between the levels.
     
  7. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    Again, this is just a proven fact. Go look at the u-20 rosters for all of the best, or even merely good, countries. Go look at the past u-20 World Cup winners. They have 4 maaaaybe 5 players tops that make an impact at the senior level.

    These are just facts and no amount of your "having a hard time believing" will change that.
     
  8. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    When was the last time that a USMNT roster passed the BS test?

    We already had somebody above claim that Tab Ramos always screws up his rosters/lineups too.

    Has there ever been a NT manager, at any level, who put out a single good roster?
     
  9. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You have literally zero players currently plying their trade in the United States, for the US national team.

    Meanwhile, you have a few players who very recently played in the U.S. but weren't very good, and a 3rd division player.

    So basically you're one of these high-minded people who think once you step off the plane and enter a camp where they play American futbol they immediately fall apart or go abroad and any random player competes at just about any level they magically become superior to their counterparts. You'd think there would be no adult fan who believes something so silly, but it seems it's actually about 30%.

    Bet you guys have a tough time at your Scientology-esque meetings reconciling Landon Donovan, Eddie Pope, or Tyler Adams before his move arguably being the team's best player. Or any one of numerous solidifying forces for the team in any given era. Or the last year and a half of the Klinsmann's. Or that empirically MLS players have probably done better w/ the NT to a man than ones in any European 2nd division. And if someone points this out to you then they're in the MLS camp who want almost exclusively players from that Mickey Mouse league. Because it can only be one or the other.

    Maybe Pulisic and McKennie indeed shouldn't be at the Gold Cup then because their skills will immediately deteriorate like vampires in sunlight. I suppose good thing they can travel back to Transylvania afterward and they'll regenerate. Maybe we could try to play all our competitive games in Europe or South America so those player's powers will transfer to our inherently inferior ones who play soccerball. Go USA!
     
  10. 50/50 Ball

    50/50 Ball Member+

    Sep 6, 2006
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think the US vs Spain lineup at the Confed Cup was a crowd pleaser.
     
  11. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    You're forgetting one key piece. They are facts based on history. They aren't predictive, especially when it comes to the present USMNT which is a total dumpster fire.

    It is a helluvalot easier breaking into a horrible team, then it is into a great team. The USMNT hasn't been this bad since Bruce took over in November/December 1998, and that team was actually better than this current one, it was just in disarray. While the success rate of U20 roster's in terms of field players is usually 15-20% in terms of earning caps, one look at Bradenton suggests we consistently under delivered on prospects developed there (7% including the outlier U17 class of '99) The doors are open to future success because #1 we've never produced more quality prospects (see signage rate w/professional clubs in the US and in Europe, no team is even close to the 2019 edition) and #2 we've never had more open opportunities to seize roster spots.

    I LOVE utilizing analytics, but you do need to do a touch more than just look at a list of #'s when marshaling an argument. The situation of the USMNT is unlike anything we've seen in the past 20 years, and in many ways since the 1980's. Young players have never been a better position to make a name, and this situation coincides w/what appears to be the second or third stage of a true revolution in US youth development. You think things will stay static in terms of trends regardless? I think that's 100% lunacy. Even unearned caps are going to happen for young players (they're already happening for has beens like Omar and Bradley, and never was guys like Lovitz and Baird). We may deliver at the low end of my expectations (25-30% earning at least one cap, or 5-6 field players) but even that strikes me as low, I suspect that will be the # for guys earning double digit caps, I think it's more reasonable expect that we'll double the hit rate in the short term, before falling back a touch as it becomes harder to earn caps when the 1997's through the current crop of '99's, '00's and '01's break through and seize spots. That won't mean we aren't developing players as well, it will just mean we're a better team and it's just harder to earn your way in.
     
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  12. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    Classy. I responded to the post following this one. Note that I didn't insult you personally in mine. I will be placing you on my "ignore" list going forward though so don't waste time responding to my posts if you're expecting dialogue.
     
  13. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    I didn't insult you either. I merely told the truth. That take is silly and one made by somebody who is clueless about these things.
     
  14. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    Actually, past is prologue.
     
  15. roby

    roby Member+

    SIRLOIN SALOON FC, PITTSFIELD MA
    Feb 27, 2005
    So Cal
    Where's the fun in that! :D
     
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  16. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    This isn't a horrible team even though you seemingly want it to be.
     
  17. OfficeSpace

    OfficeSpace Red Card

    United States
    Jun 8, 2019
    It's 100% lunacy to predict something so absurdly when there is strong data suggesting otherwise.
     
  18. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    I don't allow people with poor manners in my home in real life, why should I allow them in electronically?
     
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  19. roby

    roby Member+

    SIRLOIN SALOON FC, PITTSFIELD MA
    Feb 27, 2005
    So Cal
    Wasn't there a saying out there somewhere..."Keep your friends close and the Fruitcakes closer". Putting someone on ignore is surrender....not responding works much better. I respond to "he who must not be named" because we're tied at the moment and I won't settle for a draw! :ninja::p
     
  20. 50/50 Ball

    50/50 Ball Member+

    Sep 6, 2006
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I did that to a guy on a different board, just refused to engage. It was pretty fun.
     
  21. 50/50 Ball

    50/50 Ball Member+

    Sep 6, 2006
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The USMNT would boat race the U20s. Bigger, stronger, better plus the pride factor. It would be Trinidad like.
     
  22. appwrangler

    appwrangler Member

    Barcelona
    United States
    Dec 18, 2018
    Putting someone on ignore is serenity. FIFY :)
     
  23. TimB4Last

    TimB4Last Member+

    May 5, 2006
    Dystopia
    Respect for @appwrangler :cautious:
     
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  24. randomnoise

    randomnoise Member

    United States
    Mar 26, 2017
    i'll bet you wonder why you have no friends...
     
  25. truefan420

    truefan420 Member+

    May 30, 2010
    oakland
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure but that’s not a real life solution. I prefer to practice patience. I’ll discuss/debate as long as possible until their trolling is too much then leave it and not respond. Or just ignore them all together but without the forums tool.
     
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  26. truefan420

    truefan420 Member+

    May 30, 2010
    oakland
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He’s a troll. Just leave him be and he will go away. It’s not worth getting into it with him. I can vouch for that from personal experience of dealing with him.
     

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